Trabzonspor v Heart Of Midlothian prediction · UEFA Europa Conference League

Full timeGraded 22 Oct 20:28

Trabzonspor 2–0 Heart Of Midlothian TRABZONSPOR WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Trabzonspor win~~62%

~~The market said~~75%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.221

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.095

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 27 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Trabzonspor win at 62%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Trabzonspor 62% before kick-off, 62% now. 0–0 · 62–21–17
1′KICK-OFF Trabzonspor v Heart Of Midlothian
9′🟨 YELLOW · 9' S. Lopes Cabral · Trabzonspor
12′🟨 YELLOW · 12' C. Miller · Heart Of Midlothian
21′🟨 YELLOW · 21' C. Borchgrevink · Heart Of Midlothian
27′🟨 YELLOW · 27' Heart Of Midlothian
27′🟨 YELLOW · 20' W. Vrancken · Heart Of Midlothian
32′M. Salah scores for Trabzonspor on 32′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 82–13–5
32′⚽ GOAL · 32' Trabzonspor 1–0 Heart Of Midlothian · M. Salah (penalty)
32′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 32' Trabzonspor win: 62% at kick-off, 82% now
33′We said Trabzonspor at 62% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 82%. 1–0 · 82–13–5
33′The goal count is tracking the 3.1 we expected. 1–0 · 82–13–5
38′🟨 YELLOW · 38' S. Akaydin · Trabzonspor
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Heart Of Midlothian · On: S. Kingsley · Off: C. Borchgrevink
45′HALF-TIME Trabzonspor 1–0 Heart Of Midlothian
46′SECOND HALF Trabzonspor 1–0 Heart Of Midlothian
58′Trabzonspor score on 58′ to make it 2–0. 2–0 · 97–2–0
58′⚽ GOAL · 58' Trabzonspor 2–0 Heart Of Midlothian
58′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 58' Trabzonspor win: 62% at kick-off, 97% now
60′We said Trabzonspor at 62% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 97%. 2–0 · 97–2–0
71′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Trabzonspor · On: W. Pina · Off: B. Bouchouari
71′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Trabzonspor · On: O. Tufan · Off: M. Salah
71′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Trabzonspor · On: A. Simsir · Off: B. Mendy Corrected
75′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Heart Of Midlothian · On: J. Williams · Off: J. Wilson
76′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Heart Of Midlothian · On: S. Kerjota · Off: C. Miller
76′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Heart Of Midlothian · On: J. McPake · Off: S. Guendouz
80′We said Trabzonspor at 62% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
88′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Trabzonspor · On: Fabinho · Off: B. Mendy
88′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Trabzonspor · On: K. Akcay · Off: N. Saviolo
91′🟨 YELLOW · 90+1' J. McPake · Heart Of Midlothian
93′SUBSTITUTION · 90+3' Heart Of Midlothian · On: P. Kabore · Off: C. Braga
95′🟨 YELLOW · 90+5' S. Lopes Cabral · Trabzonspor
95′🟥 RED CARD · 90+5' S. Lopes Cabral · Trabzonspor
96′Trabzonspor are down to ten from 90′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 2–0 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Trabzonspor 2–0 Heart Of Midlothian
FTTrabzonspor 2–0 Heart Of Midlothian · Trabzonspor win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Trabzonspor are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Trabzonspor 62%, draw 21%, Heart Of Midlothian 17%. Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 57%.

The AI’s read on Trabzonspor v Heart Of MidlothianBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 16 Oct 00:00 · locked at kick-off

Trabzonspor win62%

Draw21%

Heart Of Midlothian win17%

Kick-offTHU 22 OCT · 17:45

RoundLeague stage · matchday 2

VenuePapara Park

RefereeL. Visser

Line-ups

Trabzonspor

4-3-3

Heart Of Midlothian

4-4-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Trabzonspor

Heart Of Midlothian

3Days since last match4

Last match: 19 Oct · Süper Lig

Last match: 18 Oct · the Scottish Premiership

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Trabzonspor	1	+2	3
19	Heart Of Midlothian	1	0	1

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Trabzonspor

4-3-3

24 A. Onana

57 M. Kabasakal

4 S. Akaydin

39 C. Ozkacar

55 S. Lopes Cabral

26 T. Jabol-Folcarelli

3 B. Mendy

8 B. Bouchouari

10 M. Salah

9 Franculino

70 N. Saviolo

Coach · Thomas Reis

Substitutes

1 · A. Yildirim

96 · E. Colak

27 · C. Nwaiwu

20 · W. Pina

81 · K. Akcay

11 · O. Tufan

90 · O. Ertem

6 · Fabinho

7 · E. Muci

58 · A. Simsir

92 · H. Yilmaz

Heart Of Midlothian

4-4-2

1 B. Reus

2 C. Borchgrevink

64 M. Fagan-Walcott

5 J. McCart

74 R. Mato

7 C. Miller

22 T. Magnusson

23 J. Altena

19 S. Guendouz

10 C. Braga

21 J. Wilson

Coach · Wouter Vrancken

Substitutes

30 · R. Fulton

28 · Z. Clark

3 · S. Kingsley

15 · J. McPake

38 · G. Stevenson

33 · F. Pollock

78 · L. Mendy

29 · S. Kerjota

9 · J. Williams

11 · P. Kabore

Our number · trabzonspor winFirst published 16 Oct 00:00 · updated 22 Oct 04:14 · locked at kick-off

62% The market75%

Us62%

~~Market~~75%

We make Trabzonspor a 62% chance to win. The market has them at 75%. We are 13 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.1–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Trabzonspor v Heart Of Midlothian~~2.11 – 1.04

~~Form · UEFA Europa Conference League this season · since 20 Aug~~W1 D0 L0 · W0 D3 L0

~~Table places · points 3 v 1~~3 v 19

~~The market · Trabzonspor win~~75% · ours 62%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Trabzonspor win The market, margin stripped

Published at 59%, 62% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 75% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Trabzonspor win	62%	75%	−13
Draw	21%	15%	+6
Heart Of Midlothian win	17%	10%	+7
Over 2.5 goals	61%	69%	−8
Both teams to score	57%	54%	+3
Over 1.5 goals	82%	85%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	39%	49%	−10
Trabzonspor or draw	83%	90%	−7
Trabzonspor clean sheet	36%	–	–
Heart Of Midlothian clean sheet	12%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 9.9%

0123450 4.6 4.1 2.3 1 8.8 9.7 4.9 2 9.6 9.9 5.1 3 6.7 7.0 3.6 4 3.6 3.7 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Trabzonspor down, Heart Of Midlothian across0–5 goals a side shown (97.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates the clubs of 637 leagues on one scale, from the 408,373 league, cup and continental matches of the last three years up to 21 Oct 2026: each club against its own league, and the leagues against each other through the matches between them, weighting recent matches more.

The two leagues

Trabzonspor play in Süper Lig, Heart Of Midlothian in the Scottish Premiership.

Venue

Allows for home advantage: Trabzonspor are at home.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021/22.

What the model expects

2.11 goals for Trabzonspor, 1.04 for Heart Of Midlothian. Most likely score 2–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 22 Oct 17:20. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · UEFA Europa Conference League this season · since 20 Aug

TRABZONSPOR

W4–2

HEART OF MIDLOTHIAN

DDD2–2 · 1–1 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Brighton	1	+4	3
2	FC Copenhagen	1	+3	3
3	Trabzonspor	1	+2	3
4	Atalanta	1	+2	3
5	Mjallby AIF	1	+2	3
6	St. Truiden	1	+2	3
7	SC Freiburg	1	+1	3
8	FC Lugano	1	+1	3
9	Monaco	1	+1	3
10	HNK Hajduk Split	1	+1	3
11	Panathinaikos	1	+1	3
12	Brann	1	+1	3
13	Gent	1	+1	3
14	Twente	1	+1	3
15	Getafe	1	0	1
16	FC Midtjylland	1	0	1
17	FC Nordsjaelland	1	0	1
18	Kairat Almaty	1	0	1
19	Heart Of Midlothian	1	0	1
20	Egnatia Rrogozhinë	1	0	1
21	Universitatea Craiova	1	0	1
22	Riga	1	0	1
23	FK Jablonec	1	−1	0
24	FK Crvena Zvezda	1	−1	0
25	Ajax	1	−1	0
26	Borac Banja Luka	1	−1	0
27	Lincoln Red Imps FC	1	−1	0
28	CSKA Sofia	1	−1	0
29	Aarhus	1	−1	0
30	FC Thun	1	−1	0
31	KuPS	1	−2	0
32	Pafos	1	−2	0
33	Inter Club d'Escaldes	1	−2	0
34	FC Iberia 1999	1	−2	0
35	SC Braga	1	−3	0
36	Kauno Žalgiris	1	−4	0