St. Truiden v FC Iberia 1999 prediction · UEFA Europa Conference League

Full timeGraded 15 Oct 22:30

St. Truiden 2–0 FC Iberia 1999 ST. TRUIDEN WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · WRONG3–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said St. Truiden win~~88%

~~The market said~~78%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.021

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.074

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 18 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said St. Truiden win at 88%.
1′Little has changed for our model: St. Truiden 88% before kick-off, 88% now. 0–0 · 88–8–3
1′KICK-OFF St. Truiden v FC Iberia 1999
5′St. Truiden ahead on 4′ through N. Ishiwatari. 1–0. 1–0 · 96–3–1
5′⚽ GOAL · 4' St. Truiden 1–0 FC Iberia 1999 · N. Ishiwatari
8′GOAL DISALLOWED · 8' St. Truiden
12′St. Truiden ahead on 11′ through R. Vanwesemael. 1–0. 1–0 · 96–3–1
12′⚽ GOAL · 11' St. Truiden 1–0 FC Iberia 1999 · R. Vanwesemael
30′The goal count is tracking the 3.9 we expected. 1–0 · 95–4–1
37′🟨 YELLOW · 36' N. Ishiwatari · St. Truiden
45′HALF-TIME St. Truiden 1–0 FC Iberia 1999
46′SECOND HALF St. Truiden 1–0 FC Iberia 1999
72′SUBSTITUTION · 71' FC Iberia 1999 · On: S. Ende · Off: Z. Natchkebia
72′SUBSTITUTION · 71' FC Iberia 1999 · On: J. Tiboue · Off: Lucas Cafe
80′SUBSTITUTION · 80' FC Iberia 1999 · On: A. Bartishvili · Off: A. Dzagania
80′SUBSTITUTION · 80' St. Truiden · On: F. Soelle · Off: S. Bazdar
85′SUBSTITUTION · 84' St. Truiden · On: K. Matsuzawa · Off: N. Mbuku
85′SUBSTITUTION · 85' FC Iberia 1999 · On: G. Kobuladze · Off: P. Cancar
85′SUBSTITUTION · 85' FC Iberia 1999 · On: G. Kutsia · Off: N. Dadiani
87′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 87' St. Truiden win: 88% at kick-off, 98% now
89′A goal for St. Truiden on 89′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 100–0–0
89′⚽ GOAL · 89' St. Truiden 2–0 FC Iberia 1999
90′We said St. Truiden at 88% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
93′SUBSTITUTION · 90+3' St. Truiden · On: S. Shinkawa · Off: I. Sebaoui
FTFULL TIME St. Truiden 2–0 FC Iberia 1999
FTSt. Truiden 2–0 FC Iberia 1999 · St. Truiden win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: wrong · 3–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

St. Truiden are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: St. Truiden 88%, draw 8%, FC Iberia 1999 3%. Over 2.5 goals 75%, both teams to score 42%.

The AI’s read on St. Truiden v FC Iberia 1999Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 9 Oct 07:15 · locked at kick-off

St. Truiden win88%

Draw8%

FC Iberia 1999 win3%

Kick-offTHU 15 OCT · 20:00

RoundLeague stage · matchday 1

VenueDaio Wasabi Stayen

RefereeM. Turkmen

Line-ups

St. Truiden

FC Iberia 1999

4-4-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

St. Truiden

FC Iberia 1999

4Days since last match5

Last match: 11 Oct · Jupiler Pro League

Last match: 10 Oct · Erovnuli Liga

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	St. Truiden	0	0	0
34	FC Iberia 1999	0	0	0

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

St. Truiden

Formation not confirmed

16 L. Kokubo

60 R. Vanwesemael

5 S. Taniguchi

26 V. Musliu

23 J. Pupe

8 A. Sissako

18 N. Ishiwatari

11 N. Mbuku

14 R. Merlen

10 I. Sebaoui

9 S. Bazdar

Coach · –

Substitutes

21 · M. Lendfers

35 · Y. Ngoy

33 · A. Diriken

27 · J. Mbambi

4 · K. Takai

3 · T. Hata

71 · R. Araki

38 · K. Matsuzawa

22 · W. Janssens

19 · F. Soelle

99 · S. Shinkawa

77 · O. Diouf

FC Iberia 1999

4-4-2

31 G. Makaridze

25 A. Amisulashvili

3 P. Cancar

4 V. Selimovic

5 J. Jinjolava

18 Lucas Cafe

6 N. Dadiani

8 B. Kardava

10 Z. Natchkebia

9 A. Dzagania

19 N. Sikharulashvili

Coach · Andriy Demchenko

Substitutes

1 · T. Megrelishvili

16 · R. Kurtanidze

40 · G. Kobuladze

33 · J. Tiboue

22 · S. Figueredo

30 · N. Bochorishvili

27 · G. Kutsia

14 · I. Alhassan

23 · E. Kuliyev

29 · L. Chikhradze

11 · A. Bartishvili

17 · S. Ende

Our number · st. truiden winFirst published 9 Oct 07:15 · locked at kick-off

88% The market78%

Us88%

~~Market~~78%

We make St. Truiden an 88% chance to win. The market has them at 78%. We are 10 points more confident than the market. The model expects 3.3–0.6.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · St. Truiden v FC Iberia 1999~~3.34 – 0.57

~~Table places · points 0 v 0~~6 v 34

~~The market · St. Truiden win~~78% · ours 88%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · St. Truiden win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 68% to 78% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
St. Truiden win	88%	78%	+10
Draw	8%	14%	−6
FC Iberia 1999 win	3%	8%	−5
Over 2.5 goals	75%	65%	+10
Both teams to score	42%	46%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	90%	84%	+6
Over 3.5 goals	55%	45%	+10
St. Truiden or draw	97%	92%	+5
St. Truiden clean sheet	56%	–	–
FC Iberia 1999 clean sheet	4%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 3–0 at 12.4%

0123450 2.1 1 6.5 3.9 2 11.1 6.4 3 12.4 7.1 2.0 4 10.4 6.0 5 7.0 4.0

under 2% 5% 12%+St. Truiden down, FC Iberia 1999 across0–5 goals a side shown (87.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates the clubs of 638 leagues on one scale, from the 406,727 league, cup and continental matches of the last three years up to 15 Oct 2026: each club against its own league, and the leagues against each other through the matches between them, weighting recent matches more.

The two leagues

St. Truiden play in Jupiler Pro League, FC Iberia 1999 in Erovnuli Liga.

Venue

Allows for home advantage: St. Truiden are at home.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021/22.

What the model expects

3.34 goals for St. Truiden, 0.57 for FC Iberia 1999. Most likely score 3–0.

Line-ups

Confirmed 15 Oct 19:30. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · UEFA Europa Conference League this season

ST. TRUIDEN

No matches in our record yet.

FC IBERIA 1999

No matches in our record yet.

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Mjallby AIF	0	0	0
2	Brighton	0	0	0
3	Monaco	0	0	0
4	FK Jablonec	0	0	0
5	Gent	0	0	0
6	St. Truiden	0	0	0
7	SC Freiburg	0	0	0
8	Atalanta	0	0	0
9	Ajax	0	0	0
10	Twente	0	0	0
11	Getafe	0	0	0
12	KuPS	0	0	0
13	CSKA Sofia	0	0	0
14	HNK Hajduk Split	0	0	0
15	Pafos	0	0	0
16	Aarhus	0	0	0
17	FC Copenhagen	0	0	0
18	FC Midtjylland	0	0	0
19	FC Nordsjaelland	0	0	0
20	Panathinaikos	0	0	0
21	Brann	0	0	0
22	SC Braga	0	0	0
23	Heart Of Midlothian	0	0	0
24	FC Lugano	0	0	0
25	FK Crvena Zvezda	0	0	0
26	FC Thun	0	0	0
27	Trabzonspor	0	0	0
28	Borac Banja Luka	0	0	0
29	Kairat Almaty	0	0	0
30	Egnatia Rrogozhinë	0	0	0
31	Inter Club d'Escaldes	0	0	0
32	Kauno Žalgiris	0	0	0
33	Universitatea Craiova	0	0	0
34	FC Iberia 1999	0	0	0
35	Lincoln Red Imps FC	0	0	0
36	Riga	0	0	0