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SC Freiburg v FK Jablonec

SC Freiburg
3–2Full time
FK Jablonec

UEFA Europa Conference League · THU 15 OCT · Europa-Park Stadion

Full timeGraded 15 Oct 22:30
SC Freiburg 3–2 FK Jablonec SC FREIBURG WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said SC Freiburg win71%
The market said79%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.132
The market’s Brier score0.067

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay20 notes · 29 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said SC Freiburg win at 71%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: SC Freiburg 71% before kick-off, 71% now. 0–0 · 71–18–11
  3. 1′KICK-OFF SC Freiburg v FK Jablonec
  4. 14′🟨 YELLOW · 14' N. Tekijaski · FK Jablonec
  5. 15′SC Freiburg ahead on 15′ through V. Grifo. 1–0. 1–0 · 88–9–3
  6. 15′⚽ GOAL · 15' SC Freiburg 1–0 FK Jablonec · V. Grifo
  7. 15′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 15' SC Freiburg win: 71% at kick-off, 88% now
  8. 16′We said SC Freiburg at 71% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 88%. 1–0 · 88–9–3
  9. 29′FK Jablonec find the net on 29′. 1–0 · 88–10–3
  10. 29′28′: A. Rusek on the scoresheet for FK Jablonec. 1–0 · 88–10–3
  11. 29′⚽ GOAL · 28' SC Freiburg 1–1 FK Jablonec · A. Rusek (assist J. Slama)
  12. 29′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 29' SC Freiburg win: 71% at kick-off, 62% now
  13. 30′The goal count is tracking the 3.0 we expected. 1–0 · 87–10–3
  14. 31′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 31' SC Freiburg win: 71% at kick-off, 61% now
  15. 34′SC Freiburg have had 7 attempts to 1 and it is still 1–1. 1–1 · 60–27–13
  16. 36′We said SC Freiburg at 71%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 59%. 1–1 · 59–28–13
  17. 45′HALF-TIME SC Freiburg 1–1 FK Jablonec
  18. 45′SECOND HALF SC Freiburg 1–1 FK Jablonec
  19. 46′We said SC Freiburg at 71%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 54%. 1–1 · 54–33–13
  20. 46′SC Freiburg have had 11 attempts to 1 and it is still 1–1. 1–1 · 54–33–13
  21. 50′SC Freiburg have had 13 attempts to 1 and it is still 1–1. 1–1 · 52–36–12
  22. 51′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 51' SC Freiburg win: 71% at kick-off, 51% now
  23. 54′We said SC Freiburg at 71%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 49%. 1–1 · 49–39–12
  24. 56′⚽ GOAL · 56' SC Freiburg 2–1 FK Jablonec
  25. 56′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 56' SC Freiburg win: 71% at kick-off, 88% now
  26. 57′53′: D. Pavlovic puts it into the FK Jablonec net, and it is 2–1. 2–1 · 88–10–2
  27. 59′SUBSTITUTION · 59' SC Freiburg · On: I. Matanovic · Off: L. Holer
  28. 59′SUBSTITUTION · 59' SC Freiburg · On: J. Makengo · Off: C. Gunter
  29. 63′🟨 YELLOW · 63' N. Okeke · FK Jablonec
  30. 65′We said SC Freiburg at 71% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 99%. 3–1 · 99–1–0
  31. 65′⚽ GOAL · 65' SC Freiburg 3–1 FK Jablonec
  32. 65′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 65' SC Freiburg win: 71% at kick-off, 99% now
  33. 66′SC Freiburg ahead on 65′ through M. Eggestein. 3–1. 3–1 · 99–1–0
  34. 66′SUBSTITUTION · 66' FK Jablonec · On: G. Kuol · Off: S. Alioum
  35. 66′SUBSTITUTION · 66' FK Jablonec · On: S. Nebyla · Off: N. Okeke
  36. 67′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.0 across ninety minutes. 3–1 · 99–1–0
  37. 72′SUBSTITUTION · 72' SC Freiburg · On: P. Lienhart · Off: M. Rosenfelder
  38. 72′SUBSTITUTION · 72' SC Freiburg · On: K. Goto · Off: C. Irie
  39. 73′🟨 YELLOW · 73' P. Osterhage · SC Freiburg
  40. 76′We said SC Freiburg at 71% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 3–1 · 100–0–0
  41. 76′SUBSTITUTION · 76' FK Jablonec · On: D. Holly · Off: A. Rusek
  42. 77′SUBSTITUTION · 76' FK Jablonec · On: D. Soucek · Off: R. Sedlacek
  43. 77′🟨 YELLOW · 77' D. Holly · FK Jablonec
  44. 84′SUBSTITUTION · 84' FK Jablonec · On: J. Chramosta · Off: M. Polidar
  45. 85′SUBSTITUTION · 84' SC Freiburg · On: P. Treu · Off: L. Kubler
  46. 90′3–2 at the end. Our 71% on SC Freiburg comes in. 3–2 · 100–0–0
  47. 93′5 goals already, more than the 3.0 we expected for the whole match. 3–2 · 99–1–0
  48. 93′⚽ GOAL · 90+3' SC Freiburg 3–2 FK Jablonec
  49. 94′G. Kuol scores for FK Jablonec on 90′ — 3–2. 3–2 · 99–1–0
  50. FTFULL TIME SC Freiburg 3–2 FK Jablonec
  51. FTSC Freiburg 3–2 FK Jablonec · SC Freiburg win: right · Over 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

SC Freiburg are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: SC Freiburg 71%, draw 18%, FK Jablonec 11%. Over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 48%.

The AI’s read on SC Freiburg v FK JablonecBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 9 Oct 07:15 · locked at kick-off

SC Freiburg win71%
Draw18%
FK Jablonec win11%

Kick-offTHU 15 OCT · 20:00

RoundLeague stage · matchday 1

VenueEuropa-Park Stadion

RefereeE. Malcevs

Line-ups

SC Freiburg

4-2-3-1

FK Jablonec

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

SC Freiburg

FK Jablonec

4Days since last match5

Last match: 11 Oct · the German Bundesliga

Last match: 10 Oct · Czech Liga

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
4FK Jablonec000
7SC Freiburg000

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

SC Freiburg

4-2-3-1

1 M. Backhaus

17 L. Kubler

28 M. Ginter

37 M. Rosenfelder

30 C. Gunter

8 M. Eggestein

6 P. Osterhage

22 C. Irie

14 Y. Suzuki

32 V. Grifo

9 L. Holer

Coach · Julian Schuster

Substitutes

21 · F. Muller

24 · J. Huth

33 · J. Makengo

5 · A. Jung

3 · P. Lienhart

29 · P. Treu

16 · Y. Engelhardt

20 · R. Yamamoto

31 · I. Matanovic

42 · K. Goto

40 · M. Zelic

FK Jablonec

4-2-3-1

1 J. Hanus

18 M. Cedidla

4 N. Tekijaski

15 D. Pavlovic

20 J. Slama

6 N. Okeke

13 R. Sedlacek

7 V. Chanturishvili

17 S. Alioum

21 M. Polidar

9 A. Rusek

Coach · Lubos Kozel

Substitutes

99 · K. Mihelak

57 · F. Novak

14 · D. Soucek

12 · D. Nykrin

31 · E. Maly

8 · F. Zorvan

24 · D. Holly

25 · S. Nebyla

19 · J. Chramosta

36 · G. Kuol

Our number · sc freiburg winFirst published 9 Oct 07:15 · updated 15 Oct 00:27 · locked at kick-off
71% The market79%
Us71%
Market79%

We make SC Freiburg a 71% chance to win. The market has them at 79%. We are 8 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.2–0.8.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · SC Freiburg v FK Jablonec2.25 – 0.77
Form · UEFA Europa Conference League this season · since 23 JulyW2 D0 L0 · W4 D0 L2
Table places · points 0 v 07 v 4
The market · SC Freiburg win79% · ours 71%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
65%70%75%80%85% 9 OCT 07:2515 OCT 19:53
Our probability · SC Freiburg win The market, margin stripped

Published at 70%, 71% now. The market has gone from 71% to 79% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
SC Freiburg win71%79%−8
Draw18%14%+4
FK Jablonec win11%6%+5
Over 2.5 goals58%60%−2
Both teams to score48%40%+8
Over 1.5 goals81%81%0
Over 3.5 goals36%39%−3
SC Freiburg or draw89%94%−5
SC Freiburg clean sheet46%––
FK Jablonec clean sheet11%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 12.4%
0123450 5.2 3.5 1 10.8 8.7 3.3 2 12.4 9.5 3.6 3 9.3 7.1 2.7 4 5.2 4.0 5 2.3
under 2% 5% 12%+SC Freiburg down, FK Jablonec across0–5 goals a side shown (97.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · UEFA Europa Conference League this season · since 23 July

SC FREIBURG

WW3–1 · 4–1

FK JABLONEC

LWWWLW2–3 · 2–0 · 2–0 · 2–1 · 0–1 · 1–0

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Mjallby AIF000
2Brighton000
3Monaco000
4FK Jablonec000
5Gent000
6St. Truiden000
7SC Freiburg000
8Atalanta000
9Ajax000
10Twente000
11Getafe000
12KuPS000
13CSKA Sofia000
14HNK Hajduk Split000
15Pafos000
16Aarhus000
17FC Copenhagen000
18FC Midtjylland000
19FC Nordsjaelland000
20Panathinaikos000
21Brann000
22SC Braga000
23Heart Of Midlothian000
24FC Lugano000
25FK Crvena Zvezda000
26FC Thun000
27Trabzonspor000
28Borac Banja Luka000
29Kairat Almaty000
30Egnatia Rrogozhinë000
31Inter Club d'Escaldes000
32Kauno Žalgiris000
33Universitatea Craiova000
34FC Iberia 1999000
35Lincoln Red Imps FC000
36Riga000

The competition's standings before kick-off.