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SC Freiburg v FK Jablonec
SC Freiburg
FK JablonecUEFA Europa Conference League · THU 15 OCT · Europa-Park Stadion
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said SC Freiburg win at 71%.
- 1′Little has changed for our model: SC Freiburg 71% before kick-off, 71% now. 0–0 · 71–18–11
- 1′KICK-OFF SC Freiburg v FK Jablonec
- 14′🟨 YELLOW · 14' N. Tekijaski · FK Jablonec
- 15′SC Freiburg ahead on 15′ through V. Grifo. 1–0. 1–0 · 88–9–3
- 15′⚽ GOAL · 15' SC Freiburg 1–0 FK Jablonec · V. Grifo
- 15′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 15' SC Freiburg win: 71% at kick-off, 88% now
- 16′We said SC Freiburg at 71% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 88%. 1–0 · 88–9–3
- 29′FK Jablonec find the net on 29′. 1–0 · 88–10–3
- 29′28′: A. Rusek on the scoresheet for FK Jablonec. 1–0 · 88–10–3
- 29′⚽ GOAL · 28' SC Freiburg 1–1 FK Jablonec · A. Rusek (assist J. Slama)
- 29′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 29' SC Freiburg win: 71% at kick-off, 62% now
- 30′The goal count is tracking the 3.0 we expected. 1–0 · 87–10–3
- 31′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 31' SC Freiburg win: 71% at kick-off, 61% now
- 34′SC Freiburg have had 7 attempts to 1 and it is still 1–1. 1–1 · 60–27–13
- 36′We said SC Freiburg at 71%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 59%. 1–1 · 59–28–13
- 45′HALF-TIME SC Freiburg 1–1 FK Jablonec
- 45′SECOND HALF SC Freiburg 1–1 FK Jablonec
- 46′We said SC Freiburg at 71%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 54%. 1–1 · 54–33–13
- 46′SC Freiburg have had 11 attempts to 1 and it is still 1–1. 1–1 · 54–33–13
- 50′SC Freiburg have had 13 attempts to 1 and it is still 1–1. 1–1 · 52–36–12
- 51′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 51' SC Freiburg win: 71% at kick-off, 51% now
- 54′We said SC Freiburg at 71%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 49%. 1–1 · 49–39–12
- 56′⚽ GOAL · 56' SC Freiburg 2–1 FK Jablonec
- 56′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 56' SC Freiburg win: 71% at kick-off, 88% now
- 57′53′: D. Pavlovic puts it into the FK Jablonec net, and it is 2–1. 2–1 · 88–10–2
- 59′SUBSTITUTION · 59' SC Freiburg · On: I. Matanovic · Off: L. Holer
- 59′SUBSTITUTION · 59' SC Freiburg · On: J. Makengo · Off: C. Gunter
- 63′🟨 YELLOW · 63' N. Okeke · FK Jablonec
- 65′We said SC Freiburg at 71% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 99%. 3–1 · 99–1–0
- 65′⚽ GOAL · 65' SC Freiburg 3–1 FK Jablonec
- 65′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 65' SC Freiburg win: 71% at kick-off, 99% now
- 66′SC Freiburg ahead on 65′ through M. Eggestein. 3–1. 3–1 · 99–1–0
- 66′SUBSTITUTION · 66' FK Jablonec · On: G. Kuol · Off: S. Alioum
- 66′SUBSTITUTION · 66' FK Jablonec · On: S. Nebyla · Off: N. Okeke
- 67′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.0 across ninety minutes. 3–1 · 99–1–0
- 72′SUBSTITUTION · 72' SC Freiburg · On: P. Lienhart · Off: M. Rosenfelder
- 72′SUBSTITUTION · 72' SC Freiburg · On: K. Goto · Off: C. Irie
- 73′🟨 YELLOW · 73' P. Osterhage · SC Freiburg
- 76′We said SC Freiburg at 71% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 3–1 · 100–0–0
- 76′SUBSTITUTION · 76' FK Jablonec · On: D. Holly · Off: A. Rusek
- 77′SUBSTITUTION · 76' FK Jablonec · On: D. Soucek · Off: R. Sedlacek
- 77′🟨 YELLOW · 77' D. Holly · FK Jablonec
- 84′SUBSTITUTION · 84' FK Jablonec · On: J. Chramosta · Off: M. Polidar
- 85′SUBSTITUTION · 84' SC Freiburg · On: P. Treu · Off: L. Kubler
- 90′3–2 at the end. Our 71% on SC Freiburg comes in. 3–2 · 100–0–0
- 93′5 goals already, more than the 3.0 we expected for the whole match. 3–2 · 99–1–0
- 93′⚽ GOAL · 90+3' SC Freiburg 3–2 FK Jablonec
- 94′G. Kuol scores for FK Jablonec on 90′ — 3–2. 3–2 · 99–1–0
- FTFULL TIME SC Freiburg 3–2 FK Jablonec
- FTSC Freiburg 3–2 FK Jablonec · SC Freiburg win: right · Over 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 2–0 exactly: wrong
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
PassSC Freiburg are clear favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: SC Freiburg 71%, draw 18%, FK Jablonec 11%. Over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 48%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 9 Oct 07:15 · locked at kick-off
SC Freiburg win71%
FK Jablonec win11%Kick-offTHU 15 OCT · 20:00
RoundLeague stage · matchday 1
VenueEuropa-Park Stadion
RefereeE. Malcevs
Match timeline
All events
SC FreiburgMIN
FK JablonecEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
SC Freiburg
4-2-3-1
FK Jablonec
4-2-3-1
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
SC Freiburg
FK Jablonec
Last match: 11 Oct · the German Bundesliga
Last match: 10 Oct · Czech Liga
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.
Line-ups
SC Freiburg
4-2-3-1
1 M. Backhaus
17 L. Kubler
28 M. Ginter
37 M. Rosenfelder
30 C. Gunter
8 M. Eggestein
6 P. Osterhage
22 C. Irie
14 Y. Suzuki
32 V. Grifo
9 L. Holer
Coach · Julian Schuster
Substitutes
21 · F. Muller
24 · J. Huth
33 · J. Makengo
5 · A. Jung
3 · P. Lienhart
29 · P. Treu
16 · Y. Engelhardt
20 · R. Yamamoto
31 · I. Matanovic
42 · K. Goto
40 · M. Zelic
FK Jablonec
4-2-3-1
1 J. Hanus
18 M. Cedidla
4 N. Tekijaski
15 D. Pavlovic
20 J. Slama
6 N. Okeke
13 R. Sedlacek
7 V. Chanturishvili
17 S. Alioum
21 M. Polidar
9 A. Rusek
Coach · Lubos Kozel
Substitutes
99 · K. Mihelak
57 · F. Novak
14 · D. Soucek
12 · D. Nykrin
31 · E. Maly
8 · F. Zorvan
24 · D. Holly
25 · S. Nebyla
19 · J. Chramosta
36 · G. Kuol
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
SC Freiburg
4-2-3-1
1 M. Backhaus
17 L. Kubler
28 M. Ginter
37 M. Rosenfelder
30 C. Gunter
8 M. Eggestein
6 P. Osterhage
22 C. Irie
14 Y. Suzuki
32 V. Grifo
9 L. Holer
Coach · Julian Schuster
Substitutes
21 · F. Muller
24 · J. Huth
33 · J. Makengo
5 · A. Jung
3 · P. Lienhart
29 · P. Treu
16 · Y. Engelhardt
20 · R. Yamamoto
31 · I. Matanovic
42 · K. Goto
40 · M. Zelic
FK Jablonec
4-2-3-1
1 J. Hanus
18 M. Cedidla
4 N. Tekijaski
15 D. Pavlovic
20 J. Slama
6 N. Okeke
13 R. Sedlacek
7 V. Chanturishvili
17 S. Alioum
21 M. Polidar
9 A. Rusek
Coach · Lubos Kozel
Substitutes
99 · K. Mihelak
57 · F. Novak
14 · D. Soucek
12 · D. Nykrin
31 · E. Maly
8 · F. Zorvan
24 · D. Holly
25 · S. Nebyla
19 · J. Chramosta
36 · G. Kuol
We make SC Freiburg a 71% chance to win. The market has them at 79%. We are 8 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.2–0.8.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Published at 70%, 71% now. The market has gone from 71% to 79% in the same time.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| SC Freiburg win | 71% | 79% | −8 |
| Draw | 18% | 14% | +4 |
| FK Jablonec win | 11% | 6% | +5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 60% | −2 |
| Both teams to score | 48% | 40% | +8 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81% | 81% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36% | 39% | −3 |
| SC Freiburg or draw | 89% | 94% | −5 |
| SC Freiburg clean sheet | 46% | – | – |
| FK Jablonec clean sheet | 11% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
No meetings since 2021/22No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.
Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · UEFA Europa Conference League this season · since 23 July
SC FREIBURG
FK JABLONEC
The table
2026/27| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mjallby AIF | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Brighton | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | Monaco | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | FK Jablonec | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 | Gent | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 6 | St. Truiden | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 7 | SC Freiburg | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 8 | Atalanta | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 9 | Ajax | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 10 | Twente | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 11 | Getafe | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 12 | KuPS | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 13 | CSKA Sofia | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 14 | HNK Hajduk Split | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 15 | Pafos | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 16 | Aarhus | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 17 | FC Copenhagen | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 18 | FC Midtjylland | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 19 | FC Nordsjaelland | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 20 | Panathinaikos | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 21 | Brann | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 22 | SC Braga | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 23 | Heart Of Midlothian | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 24 | FC Lugano | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 25 | FK Crvena Zvezda | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 26 | FC Thun | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 27 | Trabzonspor | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 28 | Borac Banja Luka | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 29 | Kairat Almaty | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 30 | Egnatia Rrogozhinë | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 31 | Inter Club d'Escaldes | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 32 | Kauno Žalgiris | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 33 | Universitatea Craiova | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 34 | FC Iberia 1999 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 35 | Lincoln Red Imps FC | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 36 | Riga | 0 | 0 | 0 |
The competition's standings before kick-off.
Mjallby AIF
Brighton
Monaco
Gent
St. Truiden
Atalanta
Ajax
Twente
Getafe
KuPS
CSKA Sofia
HNK Hajduk Split
Pafos
Aarhus
FC Copenhagen
FC Midtjylland
FC Nordsjaelland
Panathinaikos
Brann
SC Braga
Heart Of Midlothian
FC Lugano
FK Crvena Zvezda
FC Thun
Trabzonspor
Borac Banja Luka
Kairat Almaty
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
Inter Club d'Escaldes
Kauno Žalgiris
Universitatea Craiova
FC Iberia 1999
Lincoln Red Imps FC
Riga