Riga v Kairat Almaty

1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Riga win at 49%.
2. 1′Much as we predicted: Riga was 49% before kick-off and our model makes it 49% now. 0–0 · 49–26–26
3. 1′KICK-OFF Riga v Kairat Almaty
4. 5′We said Riga at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–1 · 24–24–52
5. 5′⚽ GOAL · 5' Riga 0–1 Kairat Almaty
6. 5′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 5' Riga win: 49% at kick-off, 24% now
7. 5′THE CALL SWINGS · 5' Kairat Almaty win is now our likeliest result at 52% (was Riga win 24%)
8. 6′Kairat Almaty ahead on 5′ through M. Gual. 0–1. 0–1 · 24–24–52
9. 12′⚽ GOAL · 12' Riga 1–1 Kairat Almaty
10. 12′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 12' Riga win: 49% at kick-off, 47% now
11. 12′THE CALL SWINGS · 12' Riga win is now our likeliest result at 47% (was Kairat Almaty win 25%)
12. 13′S. Oulad M'Hand scores for Riga on 12′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 47–28–25
13. 23′🟨 YELLOW · 23' J. Oksanen · Kairat Almaty
14. 29′PENALTY MISSED · 27' Riga
15. 41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Riga win: 49% at kick-off, 39% now
16. 45′HALF-TIME Riga 1–1 Kairat Almaty
17. 45′SECOND HALF Riga 1–1 Kairat Almaty
18. 47′We said Riga at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 37%. 1–1 · 37–41–22
19. 49′THE CALL SWINGS · 49' Draw is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Riga win 36%)
20. 54′We said Riga at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 1–1 · 34–45–21
21. 56′Goals are coming at about the 2.6 we expected. 1–1 · 33–47–20
22. 57′🟨 YELLOW · 57' E. Tapalov · Kairat Almaty
23. 63′We said Riga at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 29–53–18
24. 63′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Riga · On: Reginaldo Ramires · Off: M. Badamosi
25. 63′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 63' Riga win: 49% at kick-off, 29% now
26. 74′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Kairat Almaty · On: I. Bekbolat · Off: Edmilson
27. 76′We said Riga at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 19–69–12
28. 76′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 76' Riga win: 49% at kick-off, 19% now
29. 79′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Kairat Almaty · On: A. Tuyakbaev · Off: A. Mrynskiy
30. 80′We said Riga at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 1–1 · 14–76–9
31. 80′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Kairat Almaty · On: D. Kasabulat · Off: G. Mendonsa
32. 81′Riga have had 16 attempts to 11 and it is still 1–1. 1–1 · 13–78–9
33. 84′We said Riga at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 1–1 · 9–85–6
34. 84′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 84' Riga win: 49% at kick-off, 9% now
35. 87′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Riga · On: S. L. Robalo Pedro · Off: R. Aouani
36. 87′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Riga · On: C. Saco · Off: M. Diop
37. 90′Full time, 1–1. We called Riga at 49% — wrong, and it goes on the record that way. 1–1 · 0–100–0
38. 91′We said Riga at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 4–93–3
39. 93′🟨 YELLOW · 90+3' A. Martynovich · Kairat Almaty
40. FTFULL TIME Riga 1–1 Kairat Almaty
41. FTRiga 1–1 Kairat Almaty · Riga win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.