Panathinaikos v Borac Banja Luka prediction · UEFA Europa Conference League

Full timeGraded 15 Oct 20:30

Panathinaikos 2–1 Borac Banja Luka PANATHINAIKOS WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Panathinaikos win~~63%

~~The market said~~78%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.209

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.073

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 19 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Panathinaikos win at 63%.
1′Much as we predicted: Panathinaikos was 63% before kick-off and our model makes it 63% now. 0–0 · 63–24–13
1′KICK-OFF Panathinaikos v Borac Banja Luka
8′PENALTY MISSED · 6' V. Taborda · Panathinaikos
10′We published Panathinaikos at 63%. Our model now makes it 87%. 1–0 · 87–10–3
10′⚽ GOAL · 10' Panathinaikos 1–0 Borac Banja Luka
10′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 10' Panathinaikos win: 63% at kick-off, 87% now
12′11′: C. Dessers on the scoresheet for Panathinaikos, making it 1–0. 1–0 · 87–10–3
13′10′: C. Dessers on the scoresheet for Panathinaikos, making it 1–0. 1–0 · 87–10–3
15′🟨 YELLOW · 6' S. Herrera · Borac Banja Luka
15′🟨 YELLOW · 10' B. Meijers · Borac Banja Luka
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.3 we expected. 1–0 · 87–11–2
31′🟨 YELLOW · 30' A. Hiros · Borac Banja Luka
45′HALF-TIME Panathinaikos 1–0 Borac Banja Luka
46′SECOND HALF Panathinaikos 1–0 Borac Banja Luka
64′We published Panathinaikos at 63%. Our model now makes it 90%. 1–0 · 90–10–1
71′K. Kangwa scores for Panathinaikos on 70′. 1–0 · 91–8–1
71′We published Panathinaikos at 63%. Our model now makes it 99%. 2–0 · 99–1–0
71′⚽ GOAL · 70' Panathinaikos 2–0 Borac Banja Luka · K. Kangwa (assist S. Andino)
71′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 71' Panathinaikos win: 63% at kick-off, 99% now
73′We published Panathinaikos at 63%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
75′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Borac Banja Luka · On: D. Romera · Off: A. Hiros Corrected
75′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Borac Banja Luka · On: V. Rogan · Off: A. Roguljic
80′A goal for Borac Banja Luka on 80′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 94–5–0
80′⚽ GOAL · 80' Panathinaikos 2–1 Borac Banja Luka
81′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.3 across ninety minutes. 2–1 · 95–5–0
83′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Panathinaikos · On: E. Rastoder · Off: A. Ounahi Corrected
83′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Panathinaikos · On: A. Jagusic · Off: S. Andino
86′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Borac Banja Luka · On: D. Vukovic · Off: B. Cipetic
89′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Borac Banja Luka · On: S. Vranjes · Off: L. Juricic
FTFULL TIME Panathinaikos 2–1 Borac Banja Luka
FTPanathinaikos 2–1 Borac Banja Luka · Panathinaikos win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Panathinaikos are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Panathinaikos 63%, draw 24%, Borac Banja Luka 13%. Over 2.5 goals 41%, both teams to score 38%.

The AI’s read on Panathinaikos v Borac Banja LukaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 9 Oct 07:15 · locked at kick-off

Panathinaikos win63%

Draw24%

Borac Banja Luka win13%

Kick-offTHU 15 OCT · 17:45

RoundLeague stage · matchday 1

VenueOlympic Stadium of Athens

RefereeB. Csonka

Line-ups

Panathinaikos

4-2-3-1

Borac Banja Luka

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Panathinaikos

Borac Banja Luka

4Days since last match5

Last match: 11 Oct · Super League 1

Last match: 10 Oct · Premijer Liga

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
20	Panathinaikos	0	0	0
28	Borac Banja Luka	0	0	0

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Panathinaikos

4-2-3-1

1 I. Pena

2 D. Calabria

6 S. de Vrij

55 R. Van Drongelen

77 G. Kyriakopoulos

42 K. Kangwa

22 E. Camara

20 V. Taborda

21 A. Ounahi

10 S. Andino

9 C. Dessers

Coach · Jacob Neestrup

Substitutes

70 · K. Kotsaris

71 · C. Gitonas

34 · V. Kristiansen

19 · T. Tsapras

14 · E. Palmer-Brown

18 · S. Kontouris

26 · I. Louza

8 · A. Jagusic

7 · A. Tetteh

99 · L. Garcia

28 · F. Pellistri

74 · E. Rastoder

Borac Banja Luka

4-2-3-1

72 M. Jurkas

4 B. Cipetic

2 B. Meijers

6 S. Sanicanin

16 S. Herrera

98 S. Ogrinec

18 M. Jojic

44 A. Roguljic

12 A. Hiros

77 S. Savic

7 L. Juricic

Coach · Vinko Marinovic

Substitutes

1 · D. Siskovski

24 · J. Carolina

20 · E. Ridjan

19 · V. Rogan

3 · A. Pascual

13 · A. Esiti

23 · S. Vranjes

22 · I. Kukavica

99 · D. Romera

10 · D. Vukovic

47 · A. Milak

89 · M. Deket

Our number · panathinaikos winFirst published 9 Oct 07:15 · updated 13 Oct 00:14 · locked at kick-off

63% The market78%

Us63%

~~Market~~78%

We make Panathinaikos a 63% chance to win. The market has them at 78%. We are 15 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–0.6.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Panathinaikos v Borac Banja Luka~~1.69 – 0.62

~~Form · UEFA Europa Conference League this season · since 23 July~~W1 D5 L0 · W4 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 0 v 0~~20 v 28

~~The market · Panathinaikos win~~78% · ours 63%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Panathinaikos win The market, margin stripped

Published at 64%, 63% now. The market has gone from 72% to 78% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Panathinaikos win	63%	78%	−15
Draw	24%	14%	+10
Borac Banja Luka win	13%	7%	+6
Over 2.5 goals	41%	62%	−21
Both teams to score	38%	42%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	67%	82%	−15
Over 3.5 goals	20%	41%	−21
Panathinaikos or draw	87%	93%	−6
Panathinaikos clean sheet	54%	–	–
Borac Banja Luka clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 16.5%

0123450 10.3 5.8 1 16.5 10.7 3.2 2 14.3 8.8 2.7 3 8.0 5.0 4 3.4 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Panathinaikos down, Borac Banja Luka across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates the clubs of 638 leagues on one scale, from the 406,727 league, cup and continental matches of the last three years up to 15 Oct 2026: each club against its own league, and the leagues against each other through the matches between them, weighting recent matches more.

The two leagues

Panathinaikos play in Super League 1, Borac Banja Luka in Premijer Liga.

Venue

Allows for home advantage: Panathinaikos are at home.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 1 went over 2.5.

What the model expects

1.69 goals for Panathinaikos, 0.62 for Borac Banja Luka. Most likely score 1–0.

Line-ups

Confirmed 15 Oct 17:30. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~BOR 1–1 PAN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · UEFA Europa Conference League this season · since 23 July

PANATHINAIKOS

WDDDDD2–1 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 1–1

BORAC BANJA LUKA

WDWLWW3–0 · 3–3 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 3–1 · 3–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Mjallby AIF	0	0	0
2	Brighton	0	0	0
3	Monaco	0	0	0
4	FK Jablonec	0	0	0
5	Gent	0	0	0
6	St. Truiden	0	0	0
7	SC Freiburg	0	0	0
8	Atalanta	0	0	0
9	Ajax	0	0	0
10	Twente	0	0	0
11	Getafe	0	0	0
12	KuPS	0	0	0
13	CSKA Sofia	0	0	0
14	HNK Hajduk Split	0	0	0
15	Pafos	0	0	0
16	Aarhus	0	0	0
17	FC Copenhagen	0	0	0
18	FC Midtjylland	0	0	0
19	FC Nordsjaelland	0	0	0
20	Panathinaikos	0	0	0
21	Brann	0	0	0
22	SC Braga	0	0	0
23	Heart Of Midlothian	0	0	0
24	FC Lugano	0	0	0
25	FK Crvena Zvezda	0	0	0
26	FC Thun	0	0	0
27	Trabzonspor	0	0	0
28	Borac Banja Luka	0	0	0
29	Kairat Almaty	0	0	0
30	Egnatia Rrogozhinë	0	0	0
31	Inter Club d'Escaldes	0	0	0
32	Kauno Žalgiris	0	0	0
33	Universitatea Craiova	0	0	0
34	FC Iberia 1999	0	0	0
35	Lincoln Red Imps FC	0	0	0
36	Riga	0	0	0