Pafos v Riga

1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Pafos win at 62%.
2. 1′Much as we predicted: Pafos was 62% before kick-off and our model makes it 62% now. 0–0 · 62–22–16
3. 1′KICK-OFF Pafos v Riga
4. 5′We said Pafos at 62%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 36%. 0–1 · 36–25–39
5. 5′⚽ GOAL · 5' Pafos 0–1 Riga
6. 5′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 5' Pafos win: 62% at kick-off, 36% now
7. 7′GOAL DISALLOWED · 7' Riga
8. 7′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 7' Pafos win: 62% at kick-off, 60% now
9. 10′⚽ GOAL · 10' Pafos 1–0 Riga
10. 10′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 10' Pafos win: 62% at kick-off, 84% now
11. 13′GOAL DISALLOWED · 13' Pafos
12. 13′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 13' Pafos win: 62% at kick-off, 59% now
13. 34′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 34' Pafos win: 62% at kick-off, 52% now
14. 39′We said Pafos at 62%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 50%. 0–0 · 50–33–17
15. 41′We said Pafos at 62%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 49%. 0–0 · 49–34–16
16. 45′HALF-TIME Pafos 0–0 Riga
17. 45′SECOND HALF Pafos 0–0 Riga
18. 46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Pafos · On: I. Sunjic · Off: A. Brito
19. 50′🟨 YELLOW · 49' I. Sunjic · Pafos
20. 51′We said Pafos at 62%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 44%. 0–0 · 44–40–16
21. 55′We expected about 2.8 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 42–43–15
22. 55′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 55' Pafos win: 62% at kick-off, 42% now
23. 58′THE CALL SWINGS · 58' Draw is now our likeliest result at 45% (was Pafos win 43%)
24. 61′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Pafos · On: D. Quina · Off: J. Correia
25. 66′We said Pafos at 62%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 34–53–13
26. 66′We said Pafos at 62%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 8%. 0–1 · 8–26–66
27. 66′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Pafos · On: Lele · Off: Anderson Silva
28. 66′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Riga · On: Caio Ferreira · Off: Reginaldo Ramires Corrected
29. 66′⚽ GOAL · 66' Pafos 0–1 Riga
30. 66′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 66' Pafos win: 62% at kick-off, 8% now
31. 66′THE CALL SWINGS · 66' Riga win is now our likeliest result at 66% (was Draw 53%)
32. 68′Riga find the net on 68′. 0–1. 0–1 · 7–25–68
33. 69′Riga ahead on 67′ through Caio Ferreira. 0–1. 0–1 · 6–25–69
34. 70′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Riga · On: M. Badamosi · Off: Reginaldo Ramires Corrected
35. 72′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Pafos · On: K. Sema · Off: Guga
36. 74′We said Pafos at 62%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–1 · 4–21–74
37. 76′We said Pafos at 62%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 23%. 1–1 · 23–67–10
38. 76′Goals are coming at about the 2.8 we expected. 1–1 · 23–67–10
39. 76′⚽ GOAL · 76' Pafos 1–1 Riga
40. 76′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 76' Pafos win: 62% at kick-off, 23% now
41. 76′THE CALL SWINGS · 76' Draw is now our likeliest result at 67% (was Riga win 77%)
42. 77′Biel scores for Pafos on 76′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 22–69–9
43. 79′We said Pafos at 62%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 19–73–8
44. 79′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Riga · On: A. Cernomordijs · Off: R. Aouani
45. 83′We said Pafos at 62%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 13%. 1–1 · 13–81–6
46. 84′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 84' Pafos win: 62% at kick-off, 11% now
47. 90′🟨 YELLOW · 90' K. Sema · Pafos
48. 90′SUBSTITUTION · 90' Riga · On: C. Saco · Off: S. Oulad M'Hand
49. 91′🟨 YELLOW · 90+1' M. Tonisevs · Riga
50. 93′Full time, 1–1. We called Pafos at 62% — wrong, and it goes on the record that way. 1–1 · 0–100–0
51. FTFULL TIME Pafos 1–1 Riga
52. FTPafos 1–1 Riga · Pafos win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.