Monaco v SC Freiburg prediction · UEFA Europa Conference League

Full timeGraded 22 Oct 23:00

Monaco 3–0 SC Freiburg MONACO WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Monaco win~~51%

~~The market said~~44%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.362

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.462

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 25 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Monaco win at 51%.
1′Much as we predicted: Monaco was 51% before kick-off and our model makes it 51% now. 0–0 · 51–23–26
1′KICK-OFF Monaco v SC Freiburg
17′SUBSTITUTION · 15' SC Freiburg · On: P. Osterhage · Off: Y. Engelhardt
38′🟨 YELLOW · 37' P. Osterhage · SC Freiburg
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Monaco win: 51% at kick-off, 41% now
45′SECOND HALF Monaco 1–0 SC Freiburg
46′We published Monaco at 51%. Our model now makes it 76%. 1–0 · 76–18–7
46′P. Brunner scores for Monaco on 45′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 76–18–7
46′⚽ GOAL · 46' Monaco 1–0 SC Freiburg
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 46' Monaco win: 51% at kick-off, 76% now
47′SUBSTITUTION · 46' SC Freiburg · On: L. Holer · Off: Y. Suzuki
49′HALF-TIME Monaco 1–0 SC Freiburg
50′🟨 YELLOW · 49' A. Golovin · Monaco
59′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Monaco · On: A. Soubeir · Off: M. Coulibaly
59′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Monaco · On: A. Fati · Off: M. Detourbet
63′SUBSTITUTION · 62' SC Freiburg · On: P. Treu · Off: J. Makengo
63′SUBSTITUTION · 62' SC Freiburg · On: D. Scherhant · Off: V. Grifo
64′We published Monaco at 51%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–4
66′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 66' Monaco win: 51% at kick-off, 81% now
69′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Monaco · On: D. Zakaria · Off: E. Diop
71′🟨 YELLOW · 70' A. Soubeir · Monaco
76′We published Monaco at 51%. Our model now makes it 86%. 1–0 · 86–13–1
81′We published Monaco at 51%. Our model now makes it 90%. 1–0 · 90–10–1
81′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Monaco · On: M. Abline · Off: P. Brunner
81′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Monaco · On: Nazinho · Off: A. Golovin
82′We published Monaco at 51%. Our model now makes it 99%. 2–0 · 99–1–0
82′⚽ GOAL · 82' Monaco 2–0 SC Freiburg
82′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 82' Monaco win: 51% at kick-off, 99% now
83′SUBSTITUTION · 83' SC Freiburg · On: C. Irie · Off: J. Beste
84′83′: L. Camara on the scoresheet for Monaco, making it 2–0. 2–0 · 100–0–0
84′We published Monaco at 51%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
87′🟨 YELLOW · 86' A. Fati · Monaco
90′Goals are coming at about the 3.3 we expected. 3–0 · 100–0–0
90′⚽ GOAL · 90' Monaco 3–0 SC Freiburg
92′Monaco find the net on 90′. 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Monaco 3–0 SC Freiburg
FTMonaco 3–0 SC Freiburg · Monaco win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Monaco are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Monaco 51%, draw 23%, SC Freiburg 26%. Over 2.5 goals 63%, both teams to score 63%.

The AI’s read on Monaco v SC FreiburgBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 16 Oct 00:00 · locked at kick-off

Monaco win51%

Draw23%

SC Freiburg win26%

Kick-offTHU 22 OCT · 20:00

RoundLeague stage · matchday 2

VenueStade Louis II

RefereeS. Barrott

Line-ups

Monaco

4-2-3-1

SC Freiburg

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Monaco

SC Freiburg

4Days since last match4

Last match: 18 Oct · the French Ligue 1

Last match: 18 Oct · the German Bundesliga

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	SC Freiburg	1	+1	3
10	Monaco	1	+1	3

In the news

from the pressAll ›

Monaco predicted XI v Freiburg: Paris Brunner to start, Folarin Balogun ineligibleGet French Football News · 22 Oct 09:26 · Monaco, SC Freiburg Monaco manager Filipe Luís refutes ‘favourites’ tag in Europa Conference LeagueGet French Football News · 21 Oct 15:34 · Monaco Monaco’s Eric Dier and Stanis Idumbo out for Freiburg tieGet French Football News · 21 Oct 13:52 · Monaco, SC Freiburg

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Monaco

4-2-3-1

1 L. Hradecky

2 Vanderson

72 S. Sane

4 J. Teze

13 C. Mawissa

8 L. Camara

37 E. Diop

28 M. Coulibaly

10 A. Golovin

7 M. Detourbet

29 P. Brunner

Coach · Luis Filipe

Substitutes

16 · P. Kohn

40 · J. Stawiecki

22 · M. Salisu

20 · Nazinho

19 · P. Cabral

46 · A. Soubeir

6 · D. Zakaria

49 · I. Toure

11 · M. Abline

14 · M. Biereth

18 · T. Minamino

31 · A. Fati

SC Freiburg

4-2-3-1

1 M. Backhaus

17 L. Kubler

28 M. Ginter

37 M. Rosenfelder

33 J. Makengo

8 M. Eggestein

16 Y. Engelhardt

19 J. Beste

14 Y. Suzuki

32 V. Grifo

31 I. Matanovic

Coach · Julian Schuster

Substitutes

24 · J. Huth

30 · C. Gunter

5 · A. Jung

29 · P. Treu

6 · P. Osterhage

20 · R. Yamamoto

9 · L. Holer

42 · K. Goto

7 · D. Scherhant

22 · C. Irie

Our number · monaco winFirst published 16 Oct 00:00 · updated 19 Oct 00:20 · locked at kick-off

51% The market44%

Us51%

~~Market~~44%

We make Monaco a 51% chance to win. The market has them at 44%. We are 7 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.9–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Monaco v SC Freiburg~~1.92 – 1.33

~~Form · UEFA Europa Conference League this season · since 20 Aug~~W3 D0 L0 · W3 D0 L0

~~Table places · points 3 v 3~~10 v 8

~~The market · Monaco win~~44% · ours 51%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Monaco win The market, margin stripped

Published at 52%, 51% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 44% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Monaco win	51%	44%	+7
Draw	23%	27%	−4
SC Freiburg win	26%	29%	−3
Over 2.5 goals	63%	56%	+7
Both teams to score	63%	59%	+4
Over 1.5 goals	84%	78%	+6
Over 3.5 goals	41%	35%	+6
Monaco or draw	74%	71%	+3
Monaco clean sheet	26%	–	–
SC Freiburg clean sheet	15%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.2%

0123450 4.2 4.8 3.4 1 7.1 10.2 6.6 2.9 2 7.1 9.5 6.3 2.8 3 4.6 6.1 4.1 4 2.2 2.9 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Monaco down, SC Freiburg across0–5 goals a side shown (98.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates the clubs of 637 leagues on one scale, from the 408,373 league, cup and continental matches of the last three years up to 21 Oct 2026: each club against its own league, and the leagues against each other through the matches between them, weighting recent matches more.

The two leagues

Monaco play in the French Ligue 1, SC Freiburg in the German Bundesliga.

Venue

Allows for home advantage: Monaco are at home.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021/22.

What the model expects

1.92 goals for Monaco, 1.33 for SC Freiburg. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 22 Oct 19:30. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · UEFA Europa Conference League this season · since 20 Aug

MONACO

WWW3–2 · 4–1 · 2–1

SC FREIBURG

WWW3–1 · 4–1 · 3–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Panathinaikos	2	+5	6
2	Brighton	1	+4	3
3	FC Copenhagen	1	+3	3
4	Trabzonspor	1	+2	3
5	Atalanta	1	+2	3
6	Mjallby AIF	1	+2	3
7	St. Truiden	1	+2	3
8	SC Freiburg	1	+1	3
9	FC Lugano	1	+1	3
10	Monaco	1	+1	3
11	HNK Hajduk Split	1	+1	3
12	Brann	1	+1	3
13	Gent	1	+1	3
14	Twente	1	+1	3
15	Getafe	1	0	1
16	FC Midtjylland	1	0	1
17	FC Nordsjaelland	1	0	1
18	Heart Of Midlothian	1	0	1
19	Egnatia Rrogozhinë	1	0	1
20	Universitatea Craiova	1	0	1
21	Riga	1	0	1
22	Kairat Almaty	2	−4	1
23	FK Jablonec	1	−1	0
24	FK Crvena Zvezda	1	−1	0
25	Ajax	1	−1	0
26	Borac Banja Luka	1	−1	0
27	Lincoln Red Imps FC	1	−1	0
28	CSKA Sofia	1	−1	0
29	Aarhus	1	−1	0
30	FC Thun	1	−1	0
31	KuPS	1	−2	0
32	Pafos	1	−2	0
33	Inter Club d'Escaldes	1	−2	0
34	FC Iberia 1999	1	−2	0
35	SC Braga	1	−3	0
36	Kauno Žalgiris	1	−4	0