Lincoln Red Imps FC v Twente prediction · UEFA Europa Conference League

Full timeGraded 22 Oct 23:00

Lincoln Red Imps FC 1–4 Twente TWENTE WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG0–2 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Twente win~~76%

~~The market said~~81%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.089

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.053

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay15 notes · 26 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Twente win at 76%.
1′Much as we predicted: Twente was 76% before kick-off and our model makes it 76% now. 0–0 · 8–16–76
1′KICK-OFF Lincoln Red Imps FC v Twente
20′T. van den Belt scores for Twente on 20′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 2–7–91
20′⚽ GOAL · 20' Lincoln Red Imps FC 0–1 Twente · T. van den Belt (assist W. Weghorst)
20′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 20' Twente win: 76% at kick-off, 91% now
21′T. van den Belt scores for Twente on 19′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 2–7–91
22′We published Twente at 76%. Our model now makes it 91%. 0–1 · 2–7–91
25′A goal for Twente on 25′. 0–1 · 2–7–91
26′We published Twente at 76%. Our model now makes it 98%. 0–2 · 0–1–98
26′⚽ GOAL · 26' Lincoln Red Imps FC 0–2 Twente
26′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 26' Twente win: 76% at kick-off, 98% now
28′24′: W. Weghorst on the scoresheet for Twente, making it 0–2. 0–2 · 0–1–98
39′That is 3, and we only asked for 3.0 across ninety minutes. 1–2 · 1–8–91
39′Lincoln Red Imps FC pull one back on 39′ through Nano. 1–2. 1–2 · 1–8–91
39′🟨 YELLOW · 38' R. Nijstad · Twente
39′⚽ GOAL · 39' Lincoln Red Imps FC 1–2 Twente
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 39' Twente win: 76% at kick-off, 91% now
41′Lincoln Red Imps FC pull one back on 38′ through Nano. 1–2. 1–2 · 1–8–90
44′🟨 YELLOW · 43' Y. Taha · Twente
45′HALF-TIME Lincoln Red Imps FC 1–2 Twente
45′SECOND HALF Lincoln Red Imps FC 1–2 Twente
57′T. van den Belt scores for Twente on 57′. 1–2 · 1–8–91
58′4 goals already, more than the 3.0 we expected for the whole match. 1–3 · 0–1–99
58′⚽ GOAL · 57' Lincoln Red Imps FC 1–3 Twente · T. van den Belt
58′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 58' Twente win: 76% at kick-off, 99% now
65′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Twente · On: S. Orjasaeter · Off: M. Pjaca Corrected
65′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Twente · On: K. Hlynsson · Off: Y. Taha Corrected
67′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Twente · On: S. Orjasaeter · Off: M. Pjaca
67′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Twente · On: K. Hlynsson · Off: Y. Taha
67′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Lincoln Red Imps FC · On: T. Garcia · Off: A. Romero Morillo Corrected
67′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Lincoln Red Imps FC · On: Manu · Off: K. Gomez Corrected
71′We published Twente at 76%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 1–3 · 0–0–100
78′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Twente · On: D. Weidmann · Off: R. Zerrouki
78′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Twente · On: J. Bawuah · Off: T. van den Belt
78′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Lincoln Red Imps FC · On: F. Alvarez · Off: A. Mula
85′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Lincoln Red Imps FC · On: N. Pinto · Off: Y. Flalhi Idrissi
86′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Twente · On: J. Meilink · Off: R. Propper
90′90′: D. Weidmann on the scoresheet for Twente, making it 1–4. 1–4 · 0–0–100
93′That is 5, and we only asked for 3.0 across ninety minutes. 1–4 · 0–0–100
93′⚽ GOAL · 90+3' Lincoln Red Imps FC 1–4 Twente
FTFULL TIME Lincoln Red Imps FC 1–4 Twente
FTLincoln Red Imps FC 1–4 Twente · Twente win: right · Over 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 0–2 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Twente are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Lincoln Red Imps FC 8%, draw 16%, Twente 76%. Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 42%.

The AI’s read on Lincoln Red Imps FC v TwenteBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 16 Oct 00:00 · locked at kick-off

Lincoln Red Imps FC win8%

Draw16%

Twente win76%

Kick-offTHU 22 OCT · 20:00

RoundLeague stage · matchday 2

VenueEuropa Point Stadium

RefereeM. Marcenaro

Line-ups

Lincoln Red Imps FC

4-4-1-1

Twente

4-1-4-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Lincoln Red Imps FC

Twente

4Days since last match4

Last match: 18 Oct · Premier Division (Gibraltar)

Last match: 18 Oct · Eredivisie

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
14	Twente	1	+1	3
27	Lincoln Red Imps FC	1	−1	0

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Lincoln Red Imps FC

4-4-1-1

13 J. Hankins

66 J. Eersteling

6 B. Lopes

3 C. Rutjens

21 Nano

19 Y. Flalhi Idrissi

22 G. Torrilla

8 Mandi

10 A. Mula

11 A. Romero Morillo

9 K. Gomez

Coach · Juan Bezares

Substitutes

1 · Nauzet Santana

27 · M. Hamm

2 · E. Jolley

20 · E. Britto

23 · Joe

32 · F. Alvarez

4 · N. Pinto

7 · L. Casciaro

18 · T. Garcia

44 · Manu

Twente

4-1-4-1

16 J. Drommel

28 B. van Rooij

3 R. Propper

4 R. Nijstad

29 A. Adelgaard

6 R. Zerrouki

11 D. Rots

10 Y. Taha

20 T. van den Belt

7 M. Pjaca

9 W. Weghorst

Coach · John van den Brom

Substitutes

31 · Y. Gerritsen

22 · R. Pasveer

24 · K. Kurowski

39 · J. Meilink

14 · K. Hlynsson

8 · D. Weidmann

2 · M. Rosiak

26 · B. Nagel

18 · J. Bawuah

27 · S. Orjasaeter

25 · L. Vennegoor of Hesselink

Our number · twente winFirst published 16 Oct 00:00 · locked at kick-off

76% The market81%

Us76%

~~Market~~81%

We make Twente a 76% chance to win. The market has them at 81%. We are 5 points less confident than the market. The model expects 0.6–2.4.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Lincoln Red Imps FC v Twente~~0.61 – 2.36

~~Form · UEFA Europa Conference League this season · since 6 Aug~~W1 D0 L2 · W3 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 0 v 3~~27 v 14

~~The market · Twente win~~81% · ours 76%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Twente win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 81% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Lincoln Red Imps FC win	8%	6%	+2
Draw	16%	12%	+4
Twente win	76%	81%	−5
Over 2.5 goals	57%	68%	−11
Both teams to score	42%	46%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	80%	85%	−5
Over 3.5 goals	35%	48%	−13
Lincoln Red Imps FC or draw	24%	19%	+5
Lincoln Red Imps FC clean sheet	9%	–	–
Twente clean sheet	54%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–2 at 14.2%

0123450 5.4 11.8 14.2 11.2 6.6 3.11 2.9 7.7 8.7 6.9 4.0 2 2.3 2.7 2.1 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Lincoln Red Imps FC down, Twente across0–5 goals a side shown (96.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates the clubs of 637 leagues on one scale, from the 408,373 league, cup and continental matches of the last three years up to 21 Oct 2026: each club against its own league, and the leagues against each other through the matches between them, weighting recent matches more.

The two leagues

Lincoln Red Imps FC play in Premier Division (Gibraltar), Twente in Eredivisie.

Venue

Allows for home advantage: Lincoln Red Imps FC are at home.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021/22.

What the model expects

0.61 goals for Lincoln Red Imps FC, 2.36 for Twente. Most likely score 0–2.

Line-ups

Confirmed 22 Oct 19:30. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · UEFA Europa Conference League this season · since 6 Aug

LINCOLN RED IMPS FC

LWL0–2 · 2–0 · 1–2

TWENTE

WDLWW6–0 · 3–3 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Panathinaikos	2	+5	6
2	Brighton	1	+4	3
3	FC Copenhagen	1	+3	3
4	Trabzonspor	1	+2	3
5	Atalanta	1	+2	3
6	Mjallby AIF	1	+2	3
7	St. Truiden	1	+2	3
8	SC Freiburg	1	+1	3
9	FC Lugano	1	+1	3
10	Monaco	1	+1	3
11	HNK Hajduk Split	1	+1	3
12	Brann	1	+1	3
13	Gent	1	+1	3
14	Twente	1	+1	3
15	Getafe	1	0	1
16	FC Midtjylland	1	0	1
17	FC Nordsjaelland	1	0	1
18	Heart Of Midlothian	1	0	1
19	Egnatia Rrogozhinë	1	0	1
20	Universitatea Craiova	1	0	1
21	Riga	1	0	1
22	Kairat Almaty	2	−4	1
23	FK Jablonec	1	−1	0
24	FK Crvena Zvezda	1	−1	0
25	Ajax	1	−1	0
26	Borac Banja Luka	1	−1	0
27	Lincoln Red Imps FC	1	−1	0
28	CSKA Sofia	1	−1	0
29	Aarhus	1	−1	0
30	FC Thun	1	−1	0
31	KuPS	1	−2	0
32	Pafos	1	−2	0
33	Inter Club d'Escaldes	1	−2	0
34	FC Iberia 1999	1	−2	0
35	SC Braga	1	−3	0
36	Kauno Žalgiris	1	−4	0