KuPS v Trabzonspor prediction · UEFA Europa Conference League

Full timeGraded 15 Oct 20:30

KuPS 2–4 Trabzonspor TRABZONSPOR WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Trabzonspor win~~54%

~~The market said~~61%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.315

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.235

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay17 notes · 29 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Trabzonspor win at 54%.
1′KICK-OFF KuPS v Trabzonspor
2′Much as we predicted: Trabzonspor was 54% before kick-off and our model makes it 54% now. 0–0 · 21–25–54
2′We published Trabzonspor at 54%. Our model now makes it 79%. 0–1 · 7–14–79
2′⚽ GOAL · 2' KuPS 0–1 Trabzonspor
2′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 2' Trabzonspor win: 54% at kick-off, 79% now
4′3′: P. Onuachu on the scoresheet for Trabzonspor, making it 0–1. 0–1 · 7–14–79
11′SUBSTITUTION · 10' Trabzonspor · On: Franculino · Off: P. Onuachu
22′🟨 YELLOW · 22' J. Eskesen · KuPS
25′🟨 YELLOW · 25' S. Akaydin · Trabzonspor
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.6 we expected. 0–1 · 5–15–79
33′We published Trabzonspor at 54%. Our model now makes it 80%. 0–1 · 5–15–80
34′🟥 RED CARD · 34' KuPS
35′🟨 YELLOW · 35' P. Parzyszek · KuPS
44′We published Trabzonspor at 54%. Our model now makes it 96%. 0–2 · 1–3–96
44′Trabzonspor ahead on 44′ through M. Salah. 0–2. 0–2 · 1–3–96
44′⚽ GOAL · 44' KuPS 0–2 Trabzonspor
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 44' Trabzonspor win: 54% at kick-off, 96% now
45′HALF-TIME KuPS 0–2 Trabzonspor
45′SECOND HALF KuPS 0–2 Trabzonspor
47′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.6 across ninety minutes. 0–3 · 0–0–99
47′⚽ GOAL · 47' KuPS 0–3 Trabzonspor
48′Franculino scores for Trabzonspor on 47′ — 0–3. 0–3 · 0–0–99
49′We published Trabzonspor at 54%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 0–3 · 0–0–100
51′🟨 YELLOW · 51' B. Mendy · Trabzonspor
54′KuPS score on 54′ to make it 1–3. 1–3 · 0–3–97
54′4 goals already, more than the 2.6 we expected for the whole match. 1–3 · 0–3–97
54′⚽ GOAL · 54' KuPS 1–3 Trabzonspor
58′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Trabzonspor · On: T. Jabol-Folcarelli · Off: O. Tufan
58′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Trabzonspor · On: Fabinho · Off: B. Mendy
58′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Trabzonspor · On: N. Saviolo · Off: M. Salah Corrected
60′PENALTY MISSED · 58' P. Parzyszek · KuPS
65′SUBSTITUTION · 65' KuPS · On: A. Aiki · Off: B. Armah
65′SUBSTITUTION · 65' KuPS · On: T. Jyry · Off: P. Pennanen
66′SUBSTITUTION · 65' KuPS · On: G. Engvall · Off: J. Luyeye-Lutumba
77′SUBSTITUTION · 76' KuPS · On: J. J. Moreno Ciorciari · Off: P. Parzyszek
77′SUBSTITUTION · 77' KuPS · On: S. Touray · Off: S. Pasanen Corrected
77′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Trabzonspor · On: E. Muci · Off: A. Simsir Corrected
86′🟨 YELLOW · 86' K. Adams · KuPS
90′Full time, 2–4. We called Trabzonspor at 54% — that one lands. 2–4 · 0–0–100
91′That is 5, and we only asked for 2.6 across ninety minutes. 1–4 · 0–0–100 Our live view briefly showed an older score here.
91′Trabzonspor ahead on 90′ through Franculino. 1–4. 1–4 · 0–0–100 Our live view briefly showed an older score here.
91′⚽ GOAL · 90+1' KuPS 1–4 Trabzonspor
96′6 goals already, more than the 2.6 we expected for the whole match. 2–4 · 0–0–100
96′G. Engvall scores for KuPS on 90′ — 2–4. 2–4 · 0–0–100
96′⚽ GOAL · 90+6' KuPS 2–4 Trabzonspor
FTFULL TIME KuPS 2–4 Trabzonspor
FTKuPS 2–4 Trabzonspor · Trabzonspor win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Trabzonspor are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: KuPS 21%, draw 25%, Trabzonspor 54%. Over 2.5 goals 49%, both teams to score 50%.

The AI’s read on KuPS v TrabzonsporBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 9 Oct 07:15 · locked at kick-off

KuPS win21%

Draw25%

Trabzonspor win54%

Kick-offTHU 15 OCT · 17:45

RoundLeague stage · matchday 1

VenueTammelan Stadion

RefereeI. Barbara

Line-ups

KuPS

4-2-3-1

Trabzonspor

4-3-3

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

KuPS

Trabzonspor

4Days since last match5

Last match: 11 Oct · Veikkausliiga

Last match: 10 Oct · Süper Lig

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
12	KuPS	0	0	0
27	Trabzonspor	0	0	0

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

KuPS

4-2-3-1

1 J. Kreidl

29 A. Puukko

4 K. Adams

23 A. Lotjonen

13 N. Kujasalo

14 S. Pasanen

8 P. Pennanen

21 J. Luyeye-Lutumba

34 J. Eskesen

24 B. Armah

20 P. Parzyszek

Coach · Miika Nuutinen

Substitutes

12 · H. Riihimaki

6 · S. Savolainen

33 · T. Hamalainen

28 · B. Magassa

30 · Jorginho

25 · C. Antwi

22 · S. Touray

16 · T. Jyry

10 · V. R. Gasc

11 · J. J. Moreno Ciorciari

15 · A. Aiki

9 · G. Engvall

Trabzonspor

4-3-3

24 A. Onana

20 W. Pina

4 S. Akaydin

39 C. Ozkacar

57 M. Kabasakal

8 B. Bouchouari

3 B. Mendy

11 O. Tufan

10 M. Salah

30 P. Onuachu

58 A. Simsir

Coach · Thomas Reis

Substitutes

1 · A. Yildirim

96 · E. Colak

81 · K. Akcay

90 · O. Ertem

6 · Fabinho

7 · E. Muci

26 · T. Jabol-Folcarelli

82 · Y. Cubukcu

9 · Franculino

70 · N. Saviolo

Our number · trabzonspor winFirst published 9 Oct 07:15 · updated 15 Oct 00:27 · locked at kick-off

54% The market61%

Us54%

~~Market~~61%

We make Trabzonspor a 54% chance to win. The market has them at 61%. We are 7 points less confident than the market. The model expects 0.9–1.7.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · KuPS v Trabzonspor~~0.94 – 1.67

~~Table places · points 0 v 0~~12 v 27

~~The market · Trabzonspor win~~61% · ours 54%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Trabzonspor win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 63% to 61% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
KuPS win	21%	17%	+4
Draw	25%	22%	+3
Trabzonspor win	54%	61%	−7
Over 2.5 goals	49%	56%	−7
Both teams to score	50%	53%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	74%	78%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	27%	35%	−8
KuPS or draw	46%	39%	+7
KuPS clean sheet	19%	–	–
Trabzonspor clean sheet	39%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.9%

0123450 7.7 11.9 10.2 5.7 2.4 1 6.5 11.9 9.6 5.4 2.3 2 3.2 5.4 4.5 2.5 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+KuPS down, Trabzonspor across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates the clubs of 638 leagues on one scale, from the 406,727 league, cup and continental matches of the last three years up to 15 Oct 2026: each club against its own league, and the leagues against each other through the matches between them, weighting recent matches more.

The two leagues

KuPS play in Veikkausliiga, Trabzonspor in Süper Lig.

Venue

Allows for home advantage: KuPS are at home.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021/22.

What the model expects

0.94 goals for KuPS, 1.67 for Trabzonspor. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 15 Oct 17:30. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · UEFA Europa Conference League this season · since 20 Aug

KUPS

DW1–1 · 1–0

TRABZONSPOR

No matches in our record yet.

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Mjallby AIF	0	0	0
2	Brighton	0	0	0
3	Monaco	0	0	0
4	FK Jablonec	0	0	0
5	Gent	0	0	0
6	St. Truiden	0	0	0
7	SC Freiburg	0	0	0
8	Atalanta	0	0	0
9	Ajax	0	0	0
10	Twente	0	0	0
11	Getafe	0	0	0
12	KuPS	0	0	0
13	CSKA Sofia	0	0	0
14	HNK Hajduk Split	0	0	0
15	Pafos	0	0	0
16	Aarhus	0	0	0
17	FC Copenhagen	0	0	0
18	FC Midtjylland	0	0	0
19	FC Nordsjaelland	0	0	0
20	Panathinaikos	0	0	0
21	Brann	0	0	0
22	SC Braga	0	0	0
23	Heart Of Midlothian	0	0	0
24	FC Lugano	0	0	0
25	FK Crvena Zvezda	0	0	0
26	FC Thun	0	0	0
27	Trabzonspor	0	0	0
28	Borac Banja Luka	0	0	0
29	Kairat Almaty	0	0	0
30	Egnatia Rrogozhinë	0	0	0
31	Inter Club d'Escaldes	0	0	0
32	Kauno Žalgiris	0	0	0
33	Universitatea Craiova	0	0	0
34	FC Iberia 1999	0	0	0
35	Lincoln Red Imps FC	0	0	0
36	Riga	0	0	0