Kauno Žalgiris v Brann prediction · UEFA Europa Conference League

Full timeGraded 22 Oct 20:28

Kauno Žalgiris 1–4 Brann BRANN WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG0–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Brann win~~63%

~~The market said~~55%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.206

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.302

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 31 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Brann win at 63%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Brann 63% before kick-off, 63% now. 0–0 · 15–22–63
1′KICK-OFF Kauno Žalgiris v Brann
6′We said Brann at 63% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 0–1 · 4–11–85
6′⚽ GOAL · 6' Kauno Žalgiris 0–1 Brann
6′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 6' Brann win: 63% at kick-off, 85% now
7′7′: N. Castro on the scoresheet for Brann, making it 0–1. 0–1 · 4–11–85
11′⚽ GOAL · 11' Kauno Žalgiris 1–1 Brann
11′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 11' Brann win: 63% at kick-off, 61% now
12′Kauno Žalgiris find the net on 12′. 1–1. 1–1 · 15–25–60
24′⚽ GOAL · 24' Kauno Žalgiris 1–2 Brann
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 24' Brann win: 63% at kick-off, 85% now
25′A goal for Brann on 25′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 4–12–85
30′3 goals already, more than the 2.7 we expected for the whole match. 1–2 · 4–12–85
37′🟨 YELLOW · 37' I. Fiolic · Kauno Žalgiris
39′We said Brann at 63% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 97%. 1–3 · 0–3–97
39′🟨 YELLOW · 38' Leo Ribeiro · Kauno Žalgiris
39′⚽ GOAL · 39' Kauno Žalgiris 1–3 Brann
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 39' Brann win: 63% at kick-off, 97% now
40′40′: N. Holm on the scoresheet for Brann, making it 1–3. 1–3 · 0–3–97
42′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.7 across ninety minutes. 1–3 · 0–2–97
44′🟨 YELLOW · 43' F. Ourega · Kauno Žalgiris
45′SECOND HALF Kauno Žalgiris 1–3 Brann
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Kauno Žalgiris · On: L. Krekovic · Off: Leo Ribeiro
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Kauno Žalgiris · On: A. Hernandez · Off: R. Lekiatas
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Kauno Žalgiris · On: V. Slivka · Off: I. Fiolic
47′HALF-TIME Kauno Žalgiris 1–3 Brann
55′🟨 YELLOW · 54' N. Iyobosa Edokpolor · Kauno Žalgiris
64′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Kauno Žalgiris · On: M. Burba · Off: F. Ourega
69′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Brann · On: K. Eriksen · Off: S. Magnusson
71′🟨 YELLOW · 71' E. Gudmundsson · Brann
76′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Brann · On: V. Dragsnes · Off: J. Soltvedt
76′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Brann · On: T. Pedersen · Off: J. Torsvik
77′We said Brann at 63% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 1–3 · 0–0–100
83′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Kauno Žalgiris · On: G. Debeljuh · Off: Renan Oliveira
85′5 goals already, more than the 2.7 we expected for the whole match. 1–4 · 0–0–100
85′⚽ GOAL · 85' Kauno Žalgiris 1–4 Brann
86′Brann ahead on 85′ through N. Holm. 1–4. 1–4 · 0–0–100
89′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Brann · On: J. Laegreid · Off: N. Castro
89′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Brann · On: B. Finne · Off: E. Gudmundsson
91′That is 6, and we only asked for 2.7 across ninety minutes. 2–4 · 0–0–100
91′🟨 YELLOW · 90' A. Hernandez · Kauno Žalgiris
91′⚽ GOAL · 90+1' Kauno Žalgiris 2–4 Brann
92′GOAL DISALLOWED · 90+2' Kauno Žalgiris
FTFULL TIME Kauno Žalgiris 1–4 Brann
FTKauno Žalgiris 1–4 Brann · Brann win: right · Over 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 0–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Brann are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Kauno Žalgiris 15%, draw 22%, Brann 63%. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 47%.

The AI’s read on Kauno Žalgiris v BrannBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 16 Oct 00:00 · locked at kick-off

Kauno Žalgiris win15%

Draw22%

Brann win63%

Kick-offTHU 22 OCT · 17:45

RoundLeague stage · matchday 2

RefereeP. Ilic

Line-ups

Kauno Žalgiris

4-1-4-1

Brann

4-3-3

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Kauno Žalgiris

Brann

3Days since last match4

Last match: 19 Oct · A Lyga

Last match: 18 Oct · Eliteserien

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
12	Brann	1	+1	3
36	Kauno Žalgiris	1	−4	0

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Kauno Žalgiris

4-1-4-1

55 T. Svedkauskas

45 J. Moutachy

3 A. Tolordava

77 R. Lekiatas

37 N. Iyobosa Edokpolor

20 A. Kalik

70 F. Ourega

17 I. Fiolic

10 G. Sirgedas

15 Leo Ribeiro

19 Renan Oliveira

Coach · Eivinas Cerniauskas

Substitutes

22 · D. Mikelionis

23 · A. Hernandez

62 · L. I. Kastrati

14 · V. Slivka

7 · A. Benchaib

8 · Y. Karashima

74 · A. Uzkurnys

47 · V. Pocius

27 · G. Debeljuh

9 · L. Krekovic

24 · M. Burba

Brann

4-3-3

12 S. Nilsen

15 J. Torsvik

3 F. Knudsen

18 J. Sorensen

17 J. Soltvedt

10 K. M. Ingason

25 N. Wassberg

19 E. Gudmundsson

22 S. Magnusson

29 N. Holm

9 N. Castro

Coach · Eirik Horneland

Substitutes

1 · M. Dyngeland

36 · H. M. Hellesoy

23 · T. Pedersen

20 · V. Dragsnes

2 · L. Cornic

41 · A. Wilhelmsen

16 · K. Eriksen

43 · B. Haugen

11 · B. Finne

39 · J. Laegreid

Our number · brann winFirst published 16 Oct 00:00 · updated 20 Oct 04:07 · locked at kick-off

63% The market55%

Us63%

~~Market~~55%

We make Brann a 63% chance to win. The market has them at 55%. We are 8 points more confident than the market. The model expects 0.8–1.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Kauno Žalgiris v Brann~~0.80 – 1.91

~~Form · last six in UEFA Europa Conference League this season · since 30 July~~W0 D0 L1 · W4 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 0 v 3~~36 v 12

~~The market · Brann win~~55% · ours 63%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Brann win The market, margin stripped

Published at 64%, 63% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 55% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Kauno Žalgiris win	15%	21%	−6
Draw	22%	24%	−2
Brann win	63%	55%	+8
Over 2.5 goals	51%	56%	−5
Both teams to score	47%	56%	−9
Over 1.5 goals	76%	78%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	29%	35%	−6
Kauno Žalgiris or draw	37%	45%	−8
Kauno Žalgiris clean sheet	15%	–	–
Brann clean sheet	45%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 12.3%

0123450 6.9 12.3 12.1 7.7 3.7 1 5.0 10.5 9.7 6.2 3.0 2 2.1 4.1 3.9 2.5 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Kauno Žalgiris down, Brann across0–5 goals a side shown (98.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates the clubs of 637 leagues on one scale, from the 408,373 league, cup and continental matches of the last three years up to 21 Oct 2026: each club against its own league, and the leagues against each other through the matches between them, weighting recent matches more.

The two leagues

Kauno Žalgiris play in A Lyga, Brann in Eliteserien.

Venue

Allows for home advantage: Kauno Žalgiris are at home.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021.

What the model expects

0.80 goals for Kauno Žalgiris, 1.91 for Brann. Most likely score 0–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 22 Oct 17:20. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in UEFA Europa Conference League this season · since 30 July

KAUNO ŽALGIRIS

L0–4

BRANN

WLWDWW3–1 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 3–2 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Brighton	1	+4	3
2	FC Copenhagen	1	+3	3
3	Trabzonspor	1	+2	3
4	Atalanta	1	+2	3
5	Mjallby AIF	1	+2	3
6	St. Truiden	1	+2	3
7	SC Freiburg	1	+1	3
8	FC Lugano	1	+1	3
9	Monaco	1	+1	3
10	HNK Hajduk Split	1	+1	3
11	Panathinaikos	1	+1	3
12	Brann	1	+1	3
13	Gent	1	+1	3
14	Twente	1	+1	3
15	Getafe	1	0	1
16	FC Midtjylland	1	0	1
17	FC Nordsjaelland	1	0	1
18	Kairat Almaty	1	0	1
19	Heart Of Midlothian	1	0	1
20	Egnatia Rrogozhinë	1	0	1
21	Universitatea Craiova	1	0	1
22	Riga	1	0	1
23	FK Jablonec	1	−1	0
24	FK Crvena Zvezda	1	−1	0
25	Ajax	1	−1	0
26	Borac Banja Luka	1	−1	0
27	Lincoln Red Imps FC	1	−1	0
28	CSKA Sofia	1	−1	0
29	Aarhus	1	−1	0
30	FC Thun	1	−1	0
31	KuPS	1	−2	0
32	Pafos	1	−2	0
33	Inter Club d'Escaldes	1	−2	0
34	FC Iberia 1999	1	−2	0
35	SC Braga	1	−3	0
36	Kauno Žalgiris	1	−4	0