Kairat Almaty v Panathinaikos prediction · UEFA Europa Conference League

Full timeGraded 22 Oct 18:01

Kairat Almaty 1–5 Panathinaikos PANATHINAIKOS WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG0–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Panathinaikos win~~51%

~~The market said~~58%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.363

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.267

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay15 notes · 28 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Panathinaikos win at 51%.
1′Much as we predicted: Panathinaikos was 51% before kick-off and our model makes it 51% now. 0–0 · 21–28–51
1′KICK-OFF Kairat Almaty v Panathinaikos
7′6′: V. Taborda on the scoresheet for Panathinaikos, making it 0–1. 0–1 · 6–15–79
7′We published Panathinaikos at 51%. Our model now makes it 79%. 0–1 · 6–15–79
7′⚽ GOAL · 6' Kairat Almaty 0–1 Panathinaikos · V. Taborda (assist G. Kyriakopoulos)
7′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 7' Panathinaikos win: 51% at kick-off, 79% now
24′Panathinaikos ahead on 24′ through C. Dessers. 0–2. 0–2 · 1–4–95
24′⚽ GOAL · 24' Kairat Almaty 0–2 Panathinaikos · C. Dessers (penalty)
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 24' Panathinaikos win: 51% at kick-off, 95% now
25′We published Panathinaikos at 51%. Our model now makes it 95%. 0–2 · 1–4–95
25′🟨 YELLOW · 25' E. Tapalov · Kairat Almaty
29′29′: A. Tetteh on the scoresheet for Panathinaikos. 0–2 · 1–4–95
32′GOAL DISALLOWED · 29' A. Tetteh · Panathinaikos
33′SUBSTITUTION · 32' Kairat Almaty · On: A. Shirobokov · Off: O. Baybek
45′HALF-TIME Kairat Almaty 0–2 Panathinaikos
45′SECOND HALF Kairat Almaty 0–2 Panathinaikos
46′🟨 YELLOW · 45+1' E. Camara · Panathinaikos
46′🟨 YELLOW · 45+2' A. Mrynskiy · Kairat Almaty
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Kairat Almaty · On: O. Jukkola · Off: Edmilson
47′🟨 YELLOW · 45+1' E. Palmer-Brown · Panathinaikos
48′C. Dessers scores for Panathinaikos on 47′ — 0–3. 0–3 · 0–0–100
48′⚽ GOAL · 47' Kairat Almaty 0–3 Panathinaikos · C. Dessers (assist A. Tetteh)
49′We published Panathinaikos at 51%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 0–3 · 0–0–100
49′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.2 across ninety minutes. 0–3 · 0–0–100
56′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Panathinaikos · On: E. Rastoder · Off: C. Dessers
56′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Panathinaikos · On: K. Kangwa · Off: E. Camara
57′57′: K. Kangwa on the scoresheet for Panathinaikos, making it 0–4. 0–4 · 0–0–100
57′⚽ GOAL · 57' Kairat Almaty 0–4 Panathinaikos · K. Kangwa
58′4 goals already, more than the 2.2 we expected for the whole match. 0–4 · 0–0–100
65′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Kairat Almaty · On: L. Kurgin · Off: L. Mata
65′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Kairat Almaty · On: I. Bekbolat · Off: M. Gual
65′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Kairat Almaty · On: D. Kasabulat · Off: J. Oksanen
65′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Panathinaikos · On: P. Chirivella · Off: I. Louza
65′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Panathinaikos · On: F. Pellistri · Off: S. Andino
76′75′: E. Rastoder on the scoresheet for Panathinaikos. 0–4 · 0–0–100
76′That is 5, and we only asked for 2.2 across ninety minutes. 0–5 · 0–0–100
76′⚽ GOAL · 75' Kairat Almaty 0–5 Panathinaikos · E. Rastoder
76′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Panathinaikos · On: G. Katris · Off: S. de Vrij
78′🟨 YELLOW · 77' K. Kangwa · Panathinaikos
79′A goal for Kairat Almaty on 79′ — 1–5. 1–5 · 0–0–100
79′⚽ GOAL · 79' Kairat Almaty 1–5 Panathinaikos
81′6 goals already, more than the 2.2 we expected for the whole match. 1–5 · 0–0–100
FTFULL TIME Kairat Almaty 1–5 Panathinaikos
FTKairat Almaty 1–5 Panathinaikos · Panathinaikos win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 0–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Panathinaikos are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Kairat Almaty 21%, draw 28%, Panathinaikos 51%. Over 2.5 goals 39%, both teams to score 43%.

The AI’s read on Kairat Almaty v PanathinaikosBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 16 Oct 00:00 · locked at kick-off

Kairat Almaty win21%

Draw28%

Panathinaikos win51%

Kick-offTHU 22 OCT · 15:30

RoundLeague stage · matchday 2

VenueAlmaty Central Stadium

RefereeA. Lindhout

Line-ups

Kairat Almaty

4-2-3-1

Panathinaikos

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Kairat Almaty

Panathinaikos

4Days since last match4

Last match: 18 Oct · the Kazakh Premier League

Last match: 18 Oct · Super League 1

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
11	Panathinaikos	1	+1	3
18	Kairat Almaty	1	0	1

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Kairat Almaty

4-2-3-1

1 T. Anarbekov

20 E. Tapalov

14 A. Martynovich

8 O. Baybek

3 L. Mata

22 G. Mendonsa

13 J. Oksanen

24 A. Mrynskiy

28 M. Gual

17 A. Tuyakbaev

9 Edmilson

Coach · Rafael Urazbakhtin

Substitutes

82 · S. Kalmurza

25 · A. Shirobokov

5 · L. Kurgin

6 · A. Sadybekov

4 · D. Kasabulat

15 · M. Birkurmanov

19 · O. Jukkola

81 · I. Bekbolat

Panathinaikos

4-2-3-1

1 I. Pena

19 T. Tsapras

14 E. Palmer-Brown

6 S. de Vrij

77 G. Kyriakopoulos

22 E. Camara

26 I. Louza

20 V. Taborda

7 A. Tetteh

10 S. Andino

9 C. Dessers

Coach · Jacob Neestrup

Substitutes

70 · K. Kotsaris

71 · C. Gitonas

2 · D. Calabria

55 · R. Van Drongelen

3 · G. Katris

4 · P. Chirivella

42 · K. Kangwa

18 · S. Kontouris

53 · I. Nebis

99 · L. Garcia

28 · F. Pellistri

74 · E. Rastoder

Our number · panathinaikos winFirst published 16 Oct 00:00 · locked at kick-off

51% The market58%

Us51%

~~Market~~58%

We make Panathinaikos a 51% chance to win. The market has them at 58%. We are 7 points less confident than the market. The model expects 0.8–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Kairat Almaty v Panathinaikos~~0.82 – 1.43

~~Form · last six in UEFA Europa Conference League this season · since 30 July~~W0 D1 L0 · W1 D5 L0

~~Table places · points 1 v 3~~18 v 11

~~The market · Panathinaikos win~~58% · ours 51%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Panathinaikos win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 58% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Kairat Almaty win	21%	18%	+3
Draw	28%	24%	+4
Panathinaikos win	51%	58%	−7
Over 2.5 goals	39%	52%	−13
Both teams to score	43%	52%	−9
Over 1.5 goals	66%	75%	−9
Over 3.5 goals	19%	31%	−12
Kairat Almaty or draw	49%	42%	+7
Kairat Almaty clean sheet	24%	–	–
Panathinaikos clean sheet	44%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 14.7%

0123450 11.0 14.7 10.8 5.1 1 8.3 12.8 8.8 4.2 2 3.6 5.1 3.6 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Kairat Almaty down, Panathinaikos across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates the clubs of 637 leagues on one scale, from the 408,373 league, cup and continental matches of the last three years up to 21 Oct 2026: each club against its own league, and the leagues against each other through the matches between them, weighting recent matches more.

The two leagues

Kairat Almaty play in the Kazakh Premier League, Panathinaikos in Super League 1.

Venue

Allows for home advantage: Kairat Almaty are at home.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021/22.

What the model expects

0.82 goals for Kairat Almaty, 1.43 for Panathinaikos. Most likely score 0–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 22 Oct 15:00. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in UEFA Europa Conference League this season · since 30 July

KAIRAT ALMATY

D1–1

PANATHINAIKOS

DDDDDW2–2 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Brighton	1	+4	3
2	FC Copenhagen	1	+3	3
3	Trabzonspor	1	+2	3
4	Atalanta	1	+2	3
5	Mjallby AIF	1	+2	3
6	St. Truiden	1	+2	3
7	SC Freiburg	1	+1	3
8	FC Lugano	1	+1	3
9	Monaco	1	+1	3
10	HNK Hajduk Split	1	+1	3
11	Panathinaikos	1	+1	3
12	Brann	1	+1	3
13	Gent	1	+1	3
14	Twente	1	+1	3
15	Getafe	1	0	1
16	FC Midtjylland	1	0	1
17	FC Nordsjaelland	1	0	1
18	Kairat Almaty	1	0	1
19	Heart Of Midlothian	1	0	1
20	Egnatia Rrogozhinë	1	0	1
21	Universitatea Craiova	1	0	1
22	Riga	1	0	1
23	FK Jablonec	1	−1	0
24	FK Crvena Zvezda	1	−1	0
25	Ajax	1	−1	0
26	Borac Banja Luka	1	−1	0
27	Lincoln Red Imps FC	1	−1	0
28	CSKA Sofia	1	−1	0
29	Aarhus	1	−1	0
30	FC Thun	1	−1	0
31	KuPS	1	−2	0
32	Pafos	1	−2	0
33	Inter Club d'Escaldes	1	−2	0
34	FC Iberia 1999	1	−2	0
35	SC Braga	1	−3	0
36	Kauno Žalgiris	1	−4	0