Inter Club d'Escaldes v Universitatea Craiova prediction · UEFA Europa Conference League

Full timeGraded 22 Oct 20:28

Inter Club d'Escaldes 1–3 Universitatea Craiova UNIVERSITATEA CRAIOVA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG0–2 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Universitatea Craiova win~~63%

~~The market said~~59%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.210

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.248

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 21 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Universitatea Craiova win at 63%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Universitatea Craiova 63% before kick-off, 62% now. 0–0 · 16–22–62
1′KICK-OFF Inter Club d'Escaldes v Universitatea Craiova
3′Universitatea Craiova ahead on 3′ through A. Al Hamlawi. 0–1. 0–1 · 5–11–84
3′We said Universitatea Craiova at 63% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 84%. 0–1 · 5–11–84
3′⚽ GOAL · 3' Inter Club d'Escaldes 0–1 Universitatea Craiova · A. Al Hamlawi
3′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 3' Universitatea Craiova win: 63% at kick-off, 84% now
6′S. Baiaram scores for Universitatea Craiova on 5′ — 0–2. 0–2 · 1–4–95
6′We said Universitatea Craiova at 63% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 0–2 · 1–4–95
6′⚽ GOAL · 5' Inter Club d'Escaldes 0–2 Universitatea Craiova · S. Baiaram
6′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 6' Universitatea Craiova win: 63% at kick-off, 95% now
20′🟨 YELLOW · 20' O. Romanchuk · Universitatea Craiova
27′🟨 YELLOW · 27' David Lopez · Inter Club d'Escaldes
45′HALF-TIME Inter Club d'Escaldes 0–2 Universitatea Craiova
46′SECOND HALF Inter Club d'Escaldes 0–2 Universitatea Craiova
51′The goal count is tracking the 2.9 we expected. 0–2 · 0–2–97
58′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Inter Club d'Escaldes · On: J. Camara · Off: Soule
58′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Inter Club d'Escaldes · On: B. Arellano · Off: D. Berlanga
63′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Universitatea Craiova · On: S. Elisor · Off: A. Al Hamlawi
73′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Universitatea Craiova · On: D. Matei · Off: S. Baiaram
73′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Universitatea Craiova · On: Teles · Off: J. Lameira
78′78′: B. Arellano on the scoresheet for Inter Club d'Escaldes, making it 1–2. 1–2 · 1–8–91
78′⚽ GOAL · 78' Inter Club d'Escaldes 1–2 Universitatea Craiova · B. Arellano
79′We said Universitatea Craiova at 63% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 92%. 1–2 · 0–8–92
80′77′: B. Arellano on the scoresheet for Inter Club d'Escaldes, making it 1–2. 1–2 · 0–7–92
80′3 goals already, more than the 2.9 we expected for the whole match. 1–2 · 0–7–92
87′Universitatea Craiova ahead on 86′ through S. Elisor. 1–3. 1–3 · 0–0–100
87′We said Universitatea Craiova at 63% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 1–3 · 0–0–100
87′⚽ GOAL · 86' Inter Club d'Escaldes 1–3 Universitatea Craiova · S. Elisor
88′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.9 across ninety minutes. 1–3 · 0–0–100
89′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Inter Club d'Escaldes · On: R. Hermann · Off: David Lopez
89′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Inter Club d'Escaldes · On: L. Diaby · Off: V. Alonso
92′SUBSTITUTION · 90+2' Universitatea Craiova · On: L. Basceanu · Off: A. Cicaldau Corrected
93′SUBSTITUTION · 90+3' Inter Club d'Escaldes · On: R. Lafarge · Off: A. Sanchez
FTFULL TIME Inter Club d'Escaldes 1–3 Universitatea Craiova
FTInter Club d'Escaldes 1–3 Universitatea Craiova · Universitatea Craiova win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 0–2 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Universitatea Craiova are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Inter Club d'Escaldes 16%, draw 22%, Universitatea Craiova 63%. Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 51%.

The AI’s read on Inter Club d'Escaldes v Universitatea CraiovaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 16 Oct 00:00 · locked at kick-off

Inter Club d'Escaldes win16%

Draw22%

Universitatea Craiova win63%

Kick-offTHU 22 OCT · 17:45

RoundLeague stage · matchday 2

VenueEstadi de la FAF

RefereeC. Vergetis

Line-ups

Inter Club d'Escaldes

4-1-4-1

Universitatea Craiova

3-4-3

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Inter Club d'Escaldes

Universitatea Craiova

4Days since last match4

Last match: 18 Oct · 1a Divisió

Last match: 18 Oct · Liga I

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
21	Universitatea Craiova	1	0	1
33	Inter Club d'Escaldes	1	−2	0

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Inter Club d'Escaldes

4-1-4-1

13 J. Diaz

24 M. Pochettino

4 A. Sanchez

2 A. H. Hernandez

3 J. Torres

6 V. Alonso

11 D. Berlanga

19 Modric

8 David Lopez

31 Soule

9 F. Chouaib

Coach · Felip Ortiz

Substitutes

1 · P. Freixanet

27 · R. Rosaria

21 · M. Rodriguez

18 · R. Lafarge

17 · Dacu

7 · J. Camara

46 · A. Luque

23 · L. Diaby

70 · B. Arellano

99 · R. Hermann

44 · A. Prelado

Universitatea Craiova

3-4-3

21 L. Popescu

3 O. Romanchuk

24 N. Stevanovic

6 V. Screciu

17 C. Mora

16 J. Lameira

8 T. Baluta

11 N. Bancu

20 A. Cicaldau

9 A. Al Hamlawi

10 S. Baiaram

Coach · Filipe Coelho

Substitutes

90 · R. Sava

1 · A. Maxim

31 · R. Webster

5 · B. Roux

4 · A. Cretu

23 · Teles

29 · L. Basceanu

30 · D. Matei

19 · Heriberto Tavares

7 · S. Nsimba

22 · S. Elisor

Our number · universitatea craiova winFirst published 16 Oct 00:00 · updated 19 Oct 04:13 · locked at kick-off

63% The market59%

Us63%

~~Market~~59%

We make Universitatea Craiova a 63% chance to win. The market has them at 59%. We are 4 points more confident than the market. The model expects 0.9–2.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Inter Club d'Escaldes v Universitatea Craiova~~0.90 – 2.00

~~Form · UEFA Europa Conference League this season · since 6 Aug~~W2 D2 L1 · W0 D1 L0

~~Table places · points 0 v 1~~33 v 21

~~The market · Universitatea Craiova win~~59% · ours 63%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Universitatea Craiova win The market, margin stripped

Published at 62%, 63% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 59% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Inter Club d'Escaldes win	16%	17%	−1
Draw	22%	24%	−2
Universitatea Craiova win	63%	59%	+4
Over 2.5 goals	55%	51%	+4
Both teams to score	51%	50%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	79%	74%	+5
Over 3.5 goals	33%	30%	+3
Inter Club d'Escaldes or draw	37%	41%	−4
Inter Club d'Escaldes clean sheet	14%	–	–
Universitatea Craiova clean sheet	41%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–2 at 11.0%

0123450 5.9 10.7 11.0 7.4 3.7 1 4.6 10.2 9.9 6.6 3.3 2 2.2 4.4 4.4 3.0 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Inter Club d'Escaldes down, Universitatea Craiova across0–5 goals a side shown (98.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates the clubs of 637 leagues on one scale, from the 408,373 league, cup and continental matches of the last three years up to 21 Oct 2026: each club against its own league, and the leagues against each other through the matches between them, weighting recent matches more.

The two leagues

Inter Club d'Escaldes play in 1a Divisió, Universitatea Craiova in Liga I.

Venue

Allows for home advantage: Inter Club d'Escaldes are at home.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021/22.

What the model expects

0.90 goals for Inter Club d'Escaldes, 2.00 for Universitatea Craiova. Most likely score 0–2.

Line-ups

Confirmed 22 Oct 17:20. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · UEFA Europa Conference League this season · since 6 Aug

INTER CLUB D'ESCALDES

WWDDL2–0 · 4–0 · 2–2 · 0–0 · 0–2

UNIVERSITATEA CRAIOVA

D1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Brighton	1	+4	3
2	FC Copenhagen	1	+3	3
3	Trabzonspor	1	+2	3
4	Atalanta	1	+2	3
5	Mjallby AIF	1	+2	3
6	St. Truiden	1	+2	3
7	SC Freiburg	1	+1	3
8	FC Lugano	1	+1	3
9	Monaco	1	+1	3
10	HNK Hajduk Split	1	+1	3
11	Panathinaikos	1	+1	3
12	Brann	1	+1	3
13	Gent	1	+1	3
14	Twente	1	+1	3
15	Getafe	1	0	1
16	FC Midtjylland	1	0	1
17	FC Nordsjaelland	1	0	1
18	Kairat Almaty	1	0	1
19	Heart Of Midlothian	1	0	1
20	Egnatia Rrogozhinë	1	0	1
21	Universitatea Craiova	1	0	1
22	Riga	1	0	1
23	FK Jablonec	1	−1	0
24	FK Crvena Zvezda	1	−1	0
25	Ajax	1	−1	0
26	Borac Banja Luka	1	−1	0
27	Lincoln Red Imps FC	1	−1	0
28	CSKA Sofia	1	−1	0
29	Aarhus	1	−1	0
30	FC Thun	1	−1	0
31	KuPS	1	−2	0
32	Pafos	1	−2	0
33	Inter Club d'Escaldes	1	−2	0
34	FC Iberia 1999	1	−2	0
35	SC Braga	1	−3	0
36	Kauno Žalgiris	1	−4	0