HNK Hajduk Split v Ajax

1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Ajax win at 49%.
2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Ajax 49% before kick-off, 49% now. 0–0 · 27–24–49
3. 1′KICK-OFF HNK Hajduk Split v Ajax
4. 37′We said Ajax at 49%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 16%. 1–0 · 58–25–16
5. 37′⚽ GOAL · 37' HNK Hajduk Split 1–0 Ajax
6. 37′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 37' Ajax win: 49% at kick-off, 16% now
7. 37′THE CALL SWINGS · 37' HNK Hajduk Split win is now our likeliest result at 58% (was Ajax win 16%)
8. 38′37′: A. Sanyang on the scoresheet for HNK Hajduk Split, making it 1–0. 1–0 · 59–25–16
9. 39′The goal count is tracking the 3.0 we expected. 1–0 · 59–25–16
10. 43′We said Ajax at 49%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–0 · 60–25–14
11. 45′HALF-TIME HNK Hajduk Split 1–0 Ajax
12. 45′SECOND HALF HNK Hajduk Split 1–0 Ajax
13. 46′🟨 YELLOW · 45+1' M. Acapandie · HNK Hajduk Split
14. 46′🟨 YELLOW · 45' A. del Moral · HNK Hajduk Split
15. 53′Ajax find the net on 53′. 1–1. 1–1 · 23–41–36
16. 53′We said Ajax at 49%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 36%. 1–1 · 23–41–36
17. 53′⚽ GOAL · 53' HNK Hajduk Split 1–1 Ajax
18. 53′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 53' Ajax win: 49% at kick-off, 36% now
19. 53′THE CALL SWINGS · 53' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was HNK Hajduk Split win 23%)
20. 55′3 goals already, more than the 3.0 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 65–25–10
21. 55′⚽ GOAL · 55' HNK Hajduk Split 2–1 Ajax
22. 55′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 55' Ajax win: 49% at kick-off, 10% now
23. 55′THE CALL SWINGS · 55' HNK Hajduk Split win is now our likeliest result at 65% (was Draw 25%)
24. 57′M. Soticek scores for HNK Hajduk Split on 55′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 66–25–9
25. 57′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 57' Ajax win: 49% at kick-off, 9% now
26. 58′We said Ajax at 49%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 2–1 · 66–25–9
27. 60′🟨 YELLOW · 60' M. Sego · HNK Hajduk Split
28. 69′SUBSTITUTION · 69' HNK Hajduk Split · On: L. Dendoncker · Off: A. del Moral
29. 71′We said Ajax at 49%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 2–1 · 75–21–4
30. 77′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Ajax · On: J. Mokio · Off: D. Klaassen
31. 78′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Ajax · On: O. Gloukh · Off: A. Ouazane Corrected
32. 78′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Ajax · On: L. Rosa · Off: V. Tsygankov
33. 78′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Ajax · On: Marcos Leonardo · Off: J. Torrents Corrected
34. 84′SUBSTITUTION · 83' HNK Hajduk Split · On: D. Melnjak · Off: S. Hrgovic
35. 84′SUBSTITUTION · 84' HNK Hajduk Split · On: A. Sutalo · Off: A. Sanyang Corrected
36. 90′M. Soticek scores for HNK Hajduk Split on 55′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 95–5–0
37. 90′We said Ajax at 49%. On the run of the match our model now has it at under 1%. 2–1 · 95–5–0
38. 90′3 goals already, more than the 3.0 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 95–5–0
39. 93′SUBSTITUTION · 90+2' HNK Hajduk Split · On: C. Martin · Off: M. Sego
40. 93′SUBSTITUTION · 90+1' HNK Hajduk Split · On: A. Van Hoorenbeeck · Off: K. Fayad
41. FTFULL TIME HNK Hajduk Split 2–1 Ajax
42. FTHNK Hajduk Split 2–1 Ajax · Ajax win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.