Heart Of Midlothian v FC Nordsjaelland prediction · UEFA Europa Conference League

Full timeGraded 15 Oct 22:30

Heart Of Midlothian 1–1 FC Nordsjaelland FC NORDSJAELLAND WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said FC Nordsjaelland win~~45%

~~The market said~~42%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.848

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.841

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 25 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said FC Nordsjaelland win at 45%.
1′Little has changed for our model: FC Nordsjaelland 45% before kick-off, 45% now. 0–0 · 30–25–45
1′KICK-OFF Heart Of Midlothian v FC Nordsjaelland
6′🟨 YELLOW · 6' C. Braga · Heart Of Midlothian
33′Heart Of Midlothian ahead on 33′ through O. McEntee. 1–0. 1–0 · 60–24–15
33′⚽ GOAL · 33' Heart Of Midlothian 1–0 FC Nordsjaelland · O. McEntee
33′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 33' FC Nordsjaelland win: 45% at kick-off, 15% now
33′THE CALL SWINGS · 33' Heart Of Midlothian win is now our likeliest result at 60% (was FC Nordsjaelland win 15%)
34′We said FC Nordsjaelland at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 15%. 1–0 · 61–24–15
35′The goal count is tracking the 2.9 we expected. 1–0 · 61–24–15
37′We said FC Nordsjaelland at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–0 · 61–24–14
44′🟨 YELLOW · 44' V. Nelsson · FC Nordsjaelland
45′HALF-TIME Heart Of Midlothian 1–0 FC Nordsjaelland
46′SECOND HALF Heart Of Midlothian 1–0 FC Nordsjaelland
48′🟨 YELLOW · 48' J. Wilson · Heart Of Midlothian
53′We said FC Nordsjaelland at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–0 · 67–24–9
56′🟨 YELLOW · 55' I. Adel · FC Nordsjaelland
65′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 65' FC Nordsjaelland win: 45% at kick-off, 5% now
65′SUBSTITUTION · 64' FC Nordsjaelland · On: L. Sadio · Off: R. Norheim
65′SUBSTITUTION · 65' FC Nordsjaelland · On: N. Rojkjaer · Off: M. Brink
67′🟨 YELLOW · 67' H. Milne · Heart Of Midlothian
69′We said FC Nordsjaelland at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–0 · 76–20–4
71′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Heart Of Midlothian · On: S. Kerjota · Off: C. Braga
72′SUBSTITUTION · 72' FC Nordsjaelland · On: H. Rasmussen · Off: A. Lind
78′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Heart Of Midlothian · On: J. Williams · Off: J. Wilson
84′SUBSTITUTION · 84' FC Nordsjaelland · On: V. Berthelsen · Off: V. Nelsson
87′A goal for FC Nordsjaelland on 87′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 6–87–7
87′N. Rojkjaer scores for FC Nordsjaelland on 86′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 6–87–7
87′⚽ GOAL · 87' Heart Of Midlothian 1–1 FC Nordsjaelland
87′THE CALL SWINGS · 87' Draw is now our likeliest result at 87% (was Heart Of Midlothian win 6%)
88′Heart Of Midlothian have had 19 attempts to 8 and it is still 1–1. 1–1 · 5–88–7
90′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Heart Of Midlothian · On: S. Kingsley · Off: H. Milne
90′🟨 YELLOW · 90' J. Lahteenmaki · FC Nordsjaelland
91′SUBSTITUTION · 90+1' Heart Of Midlothian · On: P. Kabore · Off: J. McPake Corrected
91′SUBSTITUTION · 90+1' Heart Of Midlothian · On: M. Gillies · Off: O. McEntee Corrected
FTFULL TIME Heart Of Midlothian 1–1 FC Nordsjaelland
FTHeart Of Midlothian 1–1 FC Nordsjaelland · FC Nordsjaelland win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

FC Nordsjaelland are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Heart Of Midlothian 30%, draw 25%, FC Nordsjaelland 45%. Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 58%.

The AI’s read on Heart Of Midlothian v FC NordsjaellandBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 9 Oct 07:15 · locked at kick-off

Heart Of Midlothian win30%

Draw25%

FC Nordsjaelland win45%

Kick-offTHU 15 OCT · 20:00

RoundLeague stage · matchday 1

VenueTynecastle Park

RefereeD. Kos

Line-ups

Heart Of Midlothian

4-2-3-1

FC Nordsjaelland

3-4-3

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Heart Of Midlothian

FC Nordsjaelland

5Days since last match6

Last match: 10 Oct · the Scottish Premiership

Last match: 9 Oct · the Danish Superliga

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
19	FC Nordsjaelland	0	0	0
23	Heart Of Midlothian	0	0	0

In the news

from the pressAll ›

Could Nordsjaelland model solve Scotland's talent crisis?BBC Sport · 14 Oct 11:35 · FC Nordsjaelland

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Heart Of Midlothian

4-2-3-1

1 B. Reus

2 C. Borchgrevink

64 M. Fagan-Walcott

5 J. McCart

18 H. Milne

78 L. Mendy

6 O. McEntee

7 C. Miller

10 C. Braga

15 J. McPake

21 J. Wilson

Coach · Wouter Vrancken

Substitutes

30 · R. Fulton

28 · Z. Clark

3 · S. Kingsley

17 · S. Findlay

39 · M. Gillies

33 · F. Pollock

23 · J. Altena

29 · S. Kerjota

9 · J. Williams

11 · P. Kabore

19 · S. Guendouz

74 · R. Mato

FC Nordsjaelland

3-4-3

13 A. Hansen

25 V. Nelsson

3 T. Salquist

4 N. Markmann

23 R. Norheim

18 J. Janssen

6 M. Brink

5 J. Lahteenmaki

14 I. Adel

11 A. Lind

10 P. Amoako

Coach · Jens Olsen

Substitutes

22 · C. Eriksson

16 · J. Busk

2 · P. Ankersen

28 · M. Walker

15 · S. Acquah

8 · N. Rojkjaer

21 · M. Heyde

37 · L. Sadio

9 · O. Solbakken

40 · H. Rasmussen

49 · W. Faber

29 · V. Berthelsen

Our number · fc nordsjaelland winFirst published 9 Oct 07:15 · updated 12 Oct 00:13 · locked at kick-off

45% The market42%

Us45%

~~Market~~42%

We make FC Nordsjaelland a 45% chance to win. The market has them at 42%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.6.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Heart Of Midlothian v FC Nordsjaelland~~1.27 – 1.60

~~Form · UEFA Europa Conference League this season · since 23 July~~W0 D2 L0 · W5 D0 L1

~~Table places · points 0 v 0~~23 v 19

~~The market · FC Nordsjaelland win~~42% · ours 45%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · FC Nordsjaelland win The market, margin stripped

Published at 46%, 45% now. The market has gone from 41% to 42% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Heart Of Midlothian win	30%	32%	−2
Draw	25%	25%	0
FC Nordsjaelland win	45%	42%	+3
Over 2.5 goals	55%	62%	−7
Both teams to score	58%	64%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	78%	82%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	32%	42%	−10
Heart Of Midlothian or draw	55%	58%	−3
Heart Of Midlothian clean sheet	20%	–	–
FC Nordsjaelland clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.9%

0123450 6.1 8.7 7.3 3.9 1 6.8 11.9 9.2 4.9 2 4.6 7.3 5.8 3.1 3 3.1 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Heart Of Midlothian down, FC Nordsjaelland across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates the clubs of 638 leagues on one scale, from the 406,727 league, cup and continental matches of the last three years up to 15 Oct 2026: each club against its own league, and the leagues against each other through the matches between them, weighting recent matches more.

The two leagues

Heart Of Midlothian play in the Scottish Premiership, FC Nordsjaelland in the Danish Superliga.

Venue

Allows for home advantage: Heart Of Midlothian are at home.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021/22.

What the model expects

1.27 goals for Heart Of Midlothian, 1.60 for FC Nordsjaelland. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 15 Oct 19:30. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · UEFA Europa Conference League this season · since 23 July

HEART OF MIDLOTHIAN

DD2–2 · 1–1

FC NORDSJAELLAND

LWWWWW0–1 · 6–0 · 2–0 · 5–0 · 1–0 · 3–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Mjallby AIF	0	0	0
2	Brighton	0	0	0
3	Monaco	0	0	0
4	FK Jablonec	0	0	0
5	Gent	0	0	0
6	St. Truiden	0	0	0
7	SC Freiburg	0	0	0
8	Atalanta	0	0	0
9	Ajax	0	0	0
10	Twente	0	0	0
11	Getafe	0	0	0
12	KuPS	0	0	0
13	CSKA Sofia	0	0	0
14	HNK Hajduk Split	0	0	0
15	Pafos	0	0	0
16	Aarhus	0	0	0
17	FC Copenhagen	0	0	0
18	FC Midtjylland	0	0	0
19	FC Nordsjaelland	0	0	0
20	Panathinaikos	0	0	0
21	Brann	0	0	0
22	SC Braga	0	0	0
23	Heart Of Midlothian	0	0	0
24	FC Lugano	0	0	0
25	FK Crvena Zvezda	0	0	0
26	FC Thun	0	0	0
27	Trabzonspor	0	0	0
28	Borac Banja Luka	0	0	0
29	Kairat Almaty	0	0	0
30	Egnatia Rrogozhinë	0	0	0
31	Inter Club d'Escaldes	0	0	0
32	Kauno Žalgiris	0	0	0
33	Universitatea Craiova	0	0	0
34	FC Iberia 1999	0	0	0
35	Lincoln Red Imps FC	0	0	0
36	Riga	0	0	0