Getafe v FC Lugano prediction · UEFA Europa Conference League

Full timeGraded 22 Oct 20:28

Getafe 2–5 FC Lugano GETAFE WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Getafe win~~50%

~~The market said~~49%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.960

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.910

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay19 notes · 34 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Getafe win at 50%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Getafe 50% before kick-off, 49% now. 0–0 · 49–30–21
1′KICK-OFF Getafe v FC Lugano
2′A goal for Getafe on 2′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 79–15–6
2′We said Getafe at 50% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 79%. 1–0 · 79–15–6
2′⚽ GOAL · 2' Getafe 1–0 FC Lugano
2′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 2' Getafe win: 50% at kick-off, 79% now
3′⚽ GOAL · 3' Getafe 1–1 FC Lugano
3′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 3' Getafe win: 50% at kick-off, 49% now
4′3′: A. Ajeti on the scoresheet for FC Lugano, making it 1–1. 1–1 · 49–30–21
7′We said Getafe at 50%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 22%. 1–2 · 22–26–52
7′⚽ GOAL · 7' Getafe 1–2 FC Lugano
7′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 7' Getafe win: 50% at kick-off, 22% now
7′THE CALL SWINGS · 7' FC Lugano win is now our likeliest result at 52% (was Getafe win 48%)
8′FC Lugano ahead on 7′ through Y. Cimignani. 1–2. 1–2 · 21–27–52
12′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 12' Getafe win: 50% at kick-off, 20% now
14′🟨 YELLOW · 13' Y. Cimignani · FC Lugano
16′We said Getafe at 50%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 1–2 · 19–27–54
20′🟨 YELLOW · 20' U. Bislimi · FC Lugano
23′🟨 YELLOW · 23' B. Mayoral · Getafe
26′We said Getafe at 50%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–3 · 4–12–84
26′⚽ GOAL · 26' Getafe 1–3 FC Lugano
26′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 26' Getafe win: 50% at kick-off, 4% now
27′A. Ajeti scores for FC Lugano on 27′ — 1–3. 1–3 · 4–12–84
28′A. Ajeti scores for FC Lugano on 26′ — 1–3. 1–3 · 4–11–84
31′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.0 across ninety minutes. 1–3 · 4–11–85
45′SECOND HALF Getafe 1–3 FC Lugano
46′HALF-TIME Getafe 1–3 FC Lugano
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Getafe · On: N. Gudelj · Off: A. Risco
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Getafe · On: J. Mojica · Off: Davinchi
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Getafe · On: R. Terrats · Off: A. Abqar
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Getafe · On: M. Satriano · Off: A. Garcia Corrected
50′5 goals already, more than the 2.0 we expected for the whole match. 1–4 · 0–1–98
50′⚽ GOAL · 50' Getafe 1–4 FC Lugano
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 50' Getafe win: 50% at kick-off, under 1% now
51′50′: U. Bislimi on the scoresheet for FC Lugano, making it 1–4. 1–4 · 0–1–99
58′🟨 YELLOW · 57' D. Moncada · FC Lugano
60′SUBSTITUTION · 59' FC Lugano · On: E. Pihlstrom · Off: D. Moncada
60′SUBSTITUTION · 59' FC Lugano · On: M. Marques · Off: Y. Cimignani
66′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Getafe · On: E. Unal · Off: I. Azon
66′SUBSTITUTION · 66' FC Lugano · On: K. Behrens · Off: A. Ajeti
71′🟨 YELLOW · 70' L. Mai · FC Lugano
74′That is 6, and we only asked for 2.0 across ninety minutes. 2–4 · 0–2–98
74′14 shots for Getafe, 8 the other way, and they still trail 2–4. 2–4 · 0–2–98
74′🟨 YELLOW · 73' M. Zanotti · FC Lugano
74′⚽ GOAL · 74' Getafe 2–4 FC Lugano
75′Getafe pull one back on 74′ through B. Mayoral. 2–4. 2–4 · 0–2–98
76′SUBSTITUTION · 75' FC Lugano · On: B. Karimov · Off: D. Dos Santos
76′SUBSTITUTION · 75' FC Lugano · On: E. Alioski · Off: M. Zanotti
87′22 shots for Getafe, 8 the other way, and they still trail 2–4. 2–4 · 0–0–100
92′7 goals already, more than the 2.0 we expected for the whole match. 2–5 · 0–0–100
92′⚽ GOAL · 90+2' Getafe 2–5 FC Lugano
93′K. Behrens scores for FC Lugano on 90′ — 2–5. 2–5 · 0–0–100
FTFULL TIME Getafe 2–5 FC Lugano
FTGetafe 2–5 FC Lugano · Getafe win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Getafe are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Getafe 50%, draw 30%, FC Lugano 21%. Over 2.5 goals 34%, both teams to score 39%.

The AI’s read on Getafe v FC LuganoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 16 Oct 00:00 · locked at kick-off

Getafe win50%

Draw30%

FC Lugano win21%

Kick-offTHU 22 OCT · 17:45

RoundLeague stage · matchday 2

VenueColiseum

RefereeA. Karaoglan

Line-ups

Getafe

4-4-2

FC Lugano

3-5-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Getafe

FC Lugano

3Days since last match4

Last match: 19 Oct · La Liga

Last match: 18 Oct · Schweizer Cup

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	FC Lugano	1	+1	3
15	Getafe	1	0	1

In the news

from the pressAll ›

Carvajal’s Getafe debut ends 1-1 as ten men rally against Rayo, but Lugano comes too soonFootball España · 20 Oct 14:27 · Getafe, FC Lugano

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Getafe

4-4-2

13 D. Soria

17 Kiko Femenia

5 A. Abqar

26 J. Valou

3 Davinchi

21 A. Garcia

2 Djene

16 Francho

28 A. Risco

9 B. Mayoral

20 I. Azon

Coach · Jose Bordalas Jimenez

Substitutes

1 · J. Letacek

35 · D. Ferrer

22 · J. Mojica

4 · S. Sazonov

15 · S. Boselli

8 · N. Gudelj

11 · R. Terrats

6 · M. Martin

19 · E. Unal

10 · M. Satriano

FC Lugano

3-5-2

16 D. von Ballmoos

6 A. Papadopoulos

17 L. Mai

3 H. Delcroix

46 M. Zanotti

25 U. Bislimi

8 A. Grgic

27 D. Dos Santos

21 Y. Cimignani

30 D. Moncada

9 A. Ajeti

Coach · Mattia Croci-Torti

Substitutes

28 · F. Gebhardt

99 · D. Mina

7 · E. Alioski

4 · D. Kelvin

2 · B. Karimov

26 · M. Marques

14 · A. Kendouci

91 · K. Behrens

22 · B. D. Castro Espinosa

24 · E. Pihlstrom

Our number · getafe winFirst published 16 Oct 00:00 · locked at kick-off

50% The market49%

Us50%

~~Market~~49%

We make Getafe a 50% chance to win. The market has them at 49%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.3–0.7.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Getafe v FC Lugano~~1.30 – 0.74

~~Form · last six in UEFA Europa Conference League this season · since 29 July~~W1 D1 L1 · W4 D2 L0

~~Table places · points 1 v 3~~15 v 8

~~The market · Getafe win~~49% · ours 50%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Getafe win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 49% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Getafe win	50%	49%	+1
Draw	30%	28%	+2
FC Lugano win	21%	23%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	34%	44%	−10
Both teams to score	39%	48%	−9
Over 1.5 goals	61%	68%	−7
Over 3.5 goals	15%	24%	−9
Getafe or draw	79%	77%	+2
Getafe clean sheet	48%	–	–
FC Lugano clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 16.5%

0123450 13.4 9.2 3.6 1 16.5 12.9 4.6 2 11.0 8.1 3.0 3 4.8 3.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Getafe down, FC Lugano across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates the clubs of 637 leagues on one scale, from the 408,373 league, cup and continental matches of the last three years up to 21 Oct 2026: each club against its own league, and the leagues against each other through the matches between them, weighting recent matches more.

The two leagues

Getafe play in La Liga, FC Lugano in the Swiss Super League.

Venue

Allows for home advantage: Getafe are at home.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021/22.

What the model expects

1.30 goals for Getafe, 0.74 for FC Lugano. Most likely score 1–0.

Line-ups

Confirmed 22 Oct 17:20. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in UEFA Europa Conference League this season · since 29 July

GETAFE

WLD3–1 · 1–2 · 1–1

FC LUGANO

WWDWDW5–1 · 2–0 · 2–2 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 3–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Brighton	1	+4	3
2	FC Copenhagen	1	+3	3
3	Trabzonspor	1	+2	3
4	Atalanta	1	+2	3
5	Mjallby AIF	1	+2	3
6	St. Truiden	1	+2	3
7	SC Freiburg	1	+1	3
8	FC Lugano	1	+1	3
9	Monaco	1	+1	3
10	HNK Hajduk Split	1	+1	3
11	Panathinaikos	1	+1	3
12	Brann	1	+1	3
13	Gent	1	+1	3
14	Twente	1	+1	3
15	Getafe	1	0	1
16	FC Midtjylland	1	0	1
17	FC Nordsjaelland	1	0	1
18	Kairat Almaty	1	0	1
19	Heart Of Midlothian	1	0	1
20	Egnatia Rrogozhinë	1	0	1
21	Universitatea Craiova	1	0	1
22	Riga	1	0	1
23	FK Jablonec	1	−1	0
24	FK Crvena Zvezda	1	−1	0
25	Ajax	1	−1	0
26	Borac Banja Luka	1	−1	0
27	Lincoln Red Imps FC	1	−1	0
28	CSKA Sofia	1	−1	0
29	Aarhus	1	−1	0
30	FC Thun	1	−1	0
31	KuPS	1	−2	0
32	Pafos	1	−2	0
33	Inter Club d'Escaldes	1	−2	0
34	FC Iberia 1999	1	−2	0
35	SC Braga	1	−3	0
36	Kauno Žalgiris	1	−4	0