Gent v Aarhus prediction · UEFA Europa Conference League

Full timeGraded 15 Oct 20:30

Gent 1–0 Aarhus GENT WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Gent win~~47%

~~The market said~~58%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.425

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.267

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 25 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Gent win at 47%.
1′Much as we predicted: Gent was 47% before kick-off and our model makes it 47% now. 0–0 · 47–25–28
1′KICK-OFF Gent v Aarhus
21′SUBSTITUTION · 21' Aarhus · On: F. Emmery · Off: M. Anderson
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Gent win: 47% at kick-off, 37% now
45′HALF-TIME Gent 0–0 Aarhus
46′SECOND HALF Gent 0–0 Aarhus
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Aarhus · On: T. Molgaard · Off: D. L. Gretarsson
47′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Gent · On: M. Diallo · Off: S. Van Der Heyden
48′9 shots for Gent, 1 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 0–0 · 36–40–24
49′THE CALL SWINGS · 49' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Gent win 36%)
50′We said Gent at 47%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 35%. 0–0 · 35–41–23
52′We said Gent at 47%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 34–43–23
55′We expected about 2.7 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 33–45–22
59′🟨 YELLOW · 59' J. Bogere · Aarhus
62′We said Gent at 47%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–50–20
63′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Aarhus · On: M. Knudsen · Off: K. Arnstad
66′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 66' Gent win: 47% at kick-off, 27% now
67′Gent have had 16 attempts to 3 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 26–56–18
67′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Gent · On: H. Goore · Off: M. Volckaert
70′We said Gent at 47%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–59–17
75′🟨 YELLOW · 74' M. Delorge · Gent
76′We said Gent at 47%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–68–13
77′🟨 YELLOW · 77' M. Solbakken · Aarhus
78′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 78' Gent win: 47% at kick-off, 17% now
79′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Aarhus · On: F. Tingager · Off: E. Kahl
79′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Aarhus · On: J. Jonsson · Off: M. Solbakken
79′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Gent · On: L. Lopes · Off: M. Delorge
80′We said Gent at 47%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 14–75–10
84′We said Gent at 47%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 9–84–7
87′🟨 YELLOW · 86' T. De Vlieger · Gent
87′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 87' Gent win: 47% at kick-off, 7% now
88′Gent ahead on 87′ through H. Goore. 1–0. 1–0 · 95–5–0
88′We published Gent at 47%. Our model now makes it 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
88′⚽ GOAL · 87' Gent 1–0 Aarhus · H. Goore
88′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 88' Gent win: 47% at kick-off, 95% now
88′THE CALL SWINGS · 88' Gent win is now our likeliest result at 95% (was Draw 5%)
91′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+1' Gent win: 47% at kick-off, 97% now
FTFULL TIME Gent 1–0 Aarhus
FTGent 1–0 Aarhus · Gent win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Gent are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Gent 47%, draw 26%, Aarhus 28%. Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 55%.

The AI’s read on Gent v AarhusBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 9 Oct 07:15 · locked at kick-off

Gent win47%

Draw26%

Aarhus win28%

Kick-offTHU 15 OCT · 17:45

RoundLeague stage · matchday 1

VenuePlanet Group Arena

RefereeB. Sariev

Line-ups

Gent

3-1-4-2

Aarhus

3-5-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Gent

Aarhus

5Days since last match3

Last match: 10 Oct · Jupiler Pro League

Last match: 12 Oct · the Danish Superliga

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Gent	0	0	0
16	Aarhus	0	0	0

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Gent

3-1-4-2

33 D. Roef

3 M. Paskotsi

16 C. Burgess

44 S. Van Der Heyden

27 T. De Vlieger

7 M. Balikwisha

57 M. Volckaert

17 M. Delorge

20 T. Araujo

75 I. Cisse

11 M. Sonko

Coach · Rik De Mil

Substitutes

30 · K. Peersman

56 · M. Diallo

39 · A. Ayinde

10 · A. Omgba

8 · L. Benes

22 · L. Lopes

37 · A. Kadri

18 · M. Samoise

28 · M. El Adfaoui

14 · K. Wilson

45 · H. Goore

59 · E. H. Seck

Aarhus

3-5-2

21 M. Hedenstad

25 C. Rosler

3 D. L. Gretarsson

19 E. Kahl

26 J. Andersen

18 C. McCowatt

7 M. Solbakken

10 K. Arnstad

23 M. Anderson

27 S. Tchamche

28 J. Bogere

Coach · Jakob Poulsen

Substitutes

1 · J. Hansen

42 · M. van der Raad

5 · F. Tingager

14 · T. Molgaard

33 · L. Callo

16 · J. Jonsson

29 · R. Carstensen

4 · M. Knudsen

31 · T. Bech

39 · F. Emmery

13 · J. Serra

8 · S. Jorgensen

Our number · gent winFirst published 9 Oct 07:15 · updated 15 Oct 05:04 · locked at kick-off

47% The market58%

Us47%

~~Market~~58%

We make Gent a 47% chance to win. The market has them at 58%. We are 11 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Gent v Aarhus~~1.59 – 1.16

~~Table places · points 0 v 0~~5 v 16

~~The market · Gent win~~58% · ours 47%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Gent win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 57% to 58% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Gent win	47%	58%	−11
Draw	26%	23%	+3
Aarhus win	28%	19%	+9
Over 2.5 goals	52%	52%	0
Both teams to score	55%	51%	+4
Over 1.5 goals	76%	75%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	30%	31%	−1
Gent or draw	72%	81%	−9
Gent clean sheet	31%	–	–
Aarhus clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.2%

0123450 6.8 7.1 4.3 1 9.8 12.2 6.9 2.7 2 8.1 9.4 5.4 2.1 3 4.3 4.9 2.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Gent down, Aarhus across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates the clubs of 638 leagues on one scale, from the 406,727 league, cup and continental matches of the last three years up to 15 Oct 2026: each club against its own league, and the leagues against each other through the matches between them, weighting recent matches more.

The two leagues

Gent play in Jupiler Pro League, Aarhus in the Danish Superliga.

Venue

Allows for home advantage: Gent are at home.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021/22.

What the model expects

1.59 goals for Gent, 1.16 for Aarhus. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 15 Oct 17:30. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · UEFA Europa Conference League this season · since 23 July

GENT

DDWDDW0–0 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 3–2

AARHUS

No matches in our record yet.

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Mjallby AIF	0	0	0
2	Brighton	0	0	0
3	Monaco	0	0	0
4	FK Jablonec	0	0	0
5	Gent	0	0	0
6	St. Truiden	0	0	0
7	SC Freiburg	0	0	0
8	Atalanta	0	0	0
9	Ajax	0	0	0
10	Twente	0	0	0
11	Getafe	0	0	0
12	KuPS	0	0	0
13	CSKA Sofia	0	0	0
14	HNK Hajduk Split	0	0	0
15	Pafos	0	0	0
16	Aarhus	0	0	0
17	FC Copenhagen	0	0	0
18	FC Midtjylland	0	0	0
19	FC Nordsjaelland	0	0	0
20	Panathinaikos	0	0	0
21	Brann	0	0	0
22	SC Braga	0	0	0
23	Heart Of Midlothian	0	0	0
24	FC Lugano	0	0	0
25	FK Crvena Zvezda	0	0	0
26	FC Thun	0	0	0
27	Trabzonspor	0	0	0
28	Borac Banja Luka	0	0	0
29	Kairat Almaty	0	0	0
30	Egnatia Rrogozhinë	0	0	0
31	Inter Club d'Escaldes	0	0	0
32	Kauno Žalgiris	0	0	0
33	Universitatea Craiova	0	0	0
34	FC Iberia 1999	0	0	0
35	Lincoln Red Imps FC	0	0	0
36	Riga	0	0	0