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FK Jablonec v Brighton
FK Jablonec
BrightonUEFA Europa Conference League · THU 22 OCT · Stadion Strelnice
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said Brighton win at 80%.
- 1′Much as we predicted: Brighton was 80% before kick-off and our model makes it 79% now. 0–0 · 7–14–79
- 1′KICK-OFF FK Jablonec v Brighton
- 30′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 30' Brighton win: 80% at kick-off, 70% now
- 34′Brighton have had 8 attempts to 2 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 9–23–69
- 35′We said Brighton at 80%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 68%. 0–0 · 9–23–68
- 42′We said Brighton at 80%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 64%. 0–0 · 9–27–64
- 45′HALF-TIME FK Jablonec 0–0 Brighton
- 45′SECOND HALF FK Jablonec 0–0 Brighton
- 49′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 49' Brighton win: 80% at kick-off, 60% now
- 49′⚽ GOAL · 49' FK Jablonec 0–1 Brighton
- 49′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 49' Brighton win: 80% at kick-off, 91% now
- 50′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 50' Brighton win: 80% at kick-off, 91% now
- 50′GOAL DISALLOWED · 50' Brighton
- 50′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 50' Brighton win: 80% at kick-off, 60% now
- 51′We said Brighton at 80%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 59%. 0–0 · 9–32–59
- 55′13 shots for Brighton, 2 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 0–0 · 9–35–56
- 56′We expected about 3.4 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 9–36–55
- 57′We said Brighton at 80%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 54%. 0–0 · 9–37–54
- 62′SUBSTITUTION · 62' FK Jablonec · On: S. Nebyla · Off: M. Polidar
- 62′SUBSTITUTION · 62' FK Jablonec · On: G. Kuol · Off: S. Alioum
- 62′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 62' Brighton win: 80% at kick-off, 50% now
- 64′We said Brighton at 80%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 47%. 0–0 · 9–44–47
- 65′🟨 YELLOW · 65' S. Nebyla · FK Jablonec
- 67′We said Brighton at 80%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 44%. 0–0 · 8–48–44
- 68′THE CALL SWINGS · 68' Draw is now our likeliest result at 49% (was Brighton win 46%)
- 68′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Brighton · On: C. Andres · Off: P. Gross
- 68′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Brighton · On: L. Vuskovic · Off: O. Boscagli
- 68′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Brighton · On: P. David · Off: J. Hinshelwood
- 69′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Brighton · On: Y. Ayari · Off: M. O'Riley
- 70′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 70' Brighton win: 80% at kick-off, 40% now
- 70′🟨 YELLOW · 70' Costinha · Brighton
- 71′We said Brighton at 80%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 39%. 0–0 · 8–53–39
- 73′🟨 YELLOW · 73' A. Rusek · FK Jablonec
- 74′SUBSTITUTION · 74' FK Jablonec · On: D. Holly · Off: A. Rusek
- 75′We said Brighton at 80%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 33%. 0–0 · 7–60–33
- 77′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 77' Brighton win: 80% at kick-off, 30% now
- 78′We said Brighton at 80%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 28%. 0–0 · 6–66–28
- 78′🟨 YELLOW · 77' D. Pavlovic · FK Jablonec
- 79′Brighton have had 16 attempts to 3 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 6–68–26
- 80′We said Brighton at 80%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 5–70–24
- 82′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 82' Brighton win: 80% at kick-off, 20% now
- 83′We said Brighton at 80%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 18%. 0–0 · 4–78–18
- 85′🟨 YELLOW · 85' M. Cedidla · FK Jablonec
- 86′We said Brighton at 80%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 13%. 0–0 · 3–83–13
- 87′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Brighton · On: F. Kadioglu · Off: J. Hadjam
- 89′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 89' Brighton win: 80% at kick-off, 10% now
- 90′We said Brighton at 80%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 8%. 0–0 · 2–90–8
- 91′SUBSTITUTION · 90+1' FK Jablonec · On: J. Chramosta · Off: N. Okeke
- 91′SUBSTITUTION · 90+1' FK Jablonec · On: D. Soucek · Off: R. Sedlacek
- 92′Brighton have had 20 attempts to 8 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 1–93–6
- 93′We said Brighton at 80%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–0 · 1–95–4
- 95′Full time, 0–0. We called Brighton at 80% — wrong, and it goes on the record that way. 0–0 · 0–100–0
- FTFULL TIME FK Jablonec 0–0 Brighton
- FTFK Jablonec 0–0 Brighton · Brighton win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 0–2 exactly: wrong
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
Brighton are clear favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: FK Jablonec 7%, draw 14%, Brighton 80%. Over 2.5 goals 65%, both teams to score 46%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 16 Oct 00:00 · locked at kick-off
FK Jablonec win7%
Brighton win80%Kick-offTHU 22 OCT · 17:45
RoundLeague stage · matchday 2
VenueStadion Strelnice
RefereeS. Kringstad
Match timeline
All events
FK JablonecMIN
BrightonEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
FK Jablonec
4-2-3-1
Brighton
4-2-3-1
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
FK Jablonec
Brighton
Last match: 18 Oct · Czech Liga
Last match: 18 Oct · the English Premier League
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.
Line-ups
FK Jablonec
4-2-3-1
1 J. Hanus
18 M. Cedidla
4 N. Tekijaski
15 D. Pavlovic
20 J. Slama
13 R. Sedlacek
6 N. Okeke
7 V. Chanturishvili
17 S. Alioum
21 M. Polidar
9 A. Rusek
Coach · Lubos Kozel
Substitutes
99 · K. Mihelak
57 · F. Novak
14 · D. Soucek
12 · D. Nykrin
31 · E. Maly
8 · F. Zorvan
24 · D. Holly
25 · S. Nebyla
19 · J. Chramosta
34 · A. Kubat
36 · G. Kuol
Brighton
4-2-3-1
1 B. Verbruggen
20 Costinha
30 M. Svoboda
21 O. Boscagli
3 J. Hadjam
13 P. Gross
35 M. Yalcouye
33 M. O'Riley
8 J. Hinshelwood
15 I. Osman
10 G. Rutter
Coach · Fabian Hurzeler
Substitutes
38 · T. McGill
61 · S. Hall
5 · L. Dunk
24 · F. Kadioglu
44 · L. Vuskovic
26 · Y. Ayari
14 · C. Andres
59 · Y. Ibrahim
50 · S. Nti
19 · C. Kostoulas
12 · P. David
49 · N. Oriola
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
FK Jablonec
4-2-3-1
1 J. Hanus
18 M. Cedidla
4 N. Tekijaski
15 D. Pavlovic
20 J. Slama
13 R. Sedlacek
6 N. Okeke
7 V. Chanturishvili
17 S. Alioum
21 M. Polidar
9 A. Rusek
Coach · Lubos Kozel
Substitutes
99 · K. Mihelak
57 · F. Novak
14 · D. Soucek
12 · D. Nykrin
31 · E. Maly
8 · F. Zorvan
24 · D. Holly
25 · S. Nebyla
19 · J. Chramosta
34 · A. Kubat
36 · G. Kuol
Brighton
4-2-3-1
1 B. Verbruggen
20 Costinha
30 M. Svoboda
21 O. Boscagli
3 J. Hadjam
13 P. Gross
35 M. Yalcouye
33 M. O'Riley
8 J. Hinshelwood
15 I. Osman
10 G. Rutter
Coach · Fabian Hurzeler
Substitutes
38 · T. McGill
61 · S. Hall
5 · L. Dunk
24 · F. Kadioglu
44 · L. Vuskovic
26 · Y. Ayari
14 · C. Andres
59 · Y. Ibrahim
50 · S. Nti
19 · C. Kostoulas
12 · P. David
49 · N. Oriola
We make Brighton an 80% chance to win. The market has them at 81%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 0.7–2.7.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Published at 78%, 80% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 81% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| FK Jablonec win | 7% | 6% | +1 |
| Draw | 14% | 12% | +2 |
| Brighton win | 80% | 81% | −1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 65% | 66% | −1 |
| Both teams to score | 46% | 45% | +1 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 85% | 84% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 43% | 46% | −3 |
| FK Jablonec or draw | 20% | 19% | +1 |
| FK Jablonec clean sheet | 7% | – | – |
| Brighton clean sheet | 51% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
No meetings since 2021/22No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.
Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · last six in UEFA Europa Conference League this season · since 30 July
FK JABLONEC
BRIGHTON
The table
2026/27| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brighton | 1 | +4 | 3 |
| 2 | FC Copenhagen | 1 | +3 | 3 |
| 3 | Trabzonspor | 1 | +2 | 3 |
| 4 | Atalanta | 1 | +2 | 3 |
| 5 | Mjallby AIF | 1 | +2 | 3 |
| 6 | St. Truiden | 1 | +2 | 3 |
| 7 | SC Freiburg | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 8 | FC Lugano | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 9 | Monaco | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 10 | HNK Hajduk Split | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 11 | Panathinaikos | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 12 | Brann | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 13 | Gent | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 14 | Twente | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 15 | Getafe | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 16 | FC Midtjylland | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 17 | FC Nordsjaelland | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 18 | Kairat Almaty | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 19 | Heart Of Midlothian | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 20 | Egnatia Rrogozhinë | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 21 | Universitatea Craiova | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 22 | Riga | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 23 | FK Jablonec | 1 | −1 | 0 |
| 24 | FK Crvena Zvezda | 1 | −1 | 0 |
| 25 | Ajax | 1 | −1 | 0 |
| 26 | Borac Banja Luka | 1 | −1 | 0 |
| 27 | Lincoln Red Imps FC | 1 | −1 | 0 |
| 28 | CSKA Sofia | 1 | −1 | 0 |
| 29 | Aarhus | 1 | −1 | 0 |
| 30 | FC Thun | 1 | −1 | 0 |
| 31 | KuPS | 1 | −2 | 0 |
| 32 | Pafos | 1 | −2 | 0 |
| 33 | Inter Club d'Escaldes | 1 | −2 | 0 |
| 34 | FC Iberia 1999 | 1 | −2 | 0 |
| 35 | SC Braga | 1 | −3 | 0 |
| 36 | Kauno Žalgiris | 1 | −4 | 0 |
The competition's standings before kick-off.


FC Copenhagen
Trabzonspor
Atalanta
Mjallby AIF
St. Truiden
SC Freiburg
FC Lugano
Monaco
HNK Hajduk Split
Panathinaikos
Brann
Gent
Twente
Getafe
FC Midtjylland
FC Nordsjaelland
Kairat Almaty
Heart Of Midlothian
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
Universitatea Craiova
Riga
FK Crvena Zvezda
Ajax
Borac Banja Luka
Lincoln Red Imps FC
CSKA Sofia
Aarhus
FC Thun
KuPS
Pafos
Inter Club d'Escaldes
FC Iberia 1999
SC Braga
Kauno Žalgiris