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FK Jablonec v Brighton

FK Jablonec
0–0Full time
Brighton

UEFA Europa Conference League · THU 22 OCT · Stadion Strelnice

Full timeGraded 22 Oct 20:28
FK Jablonec 0–0 Brighton BRIGHTON WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–2 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Brighton win80%
The market said81%
Brier score, this match · lower is better1.386
The market’s Brier score1.431

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay21 notes · 32 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Brighton win at 80%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: Brighton was 80% before kick-off and our model makes it 79% now. 0–0 · 7–14–79
  3. 1′KICK-OFF FK Jablonec v Brighton
  4. 30′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 30' Brighton win: 80% at kick-off, 70% now
  5. 34′Brighton have had 8 attempts to 2 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 9–23–69
  6. 35′We said Brighton at 80%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 68%. 0–0 · 9–23–68
  7. 42′We said Brighton at 80%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 64%. 0–0 · 9–27–64
  8. 45′HALF-TIME FK Jablonec 0–0 Brighton
  9. 45′SECOND HALF FK Jablonec 0–0 Brighton
  10. 49′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 49' Brighton win: 80% at kick-off, 60% now
  11. 49′⚽ GOAL · 49' FK Jablonec 0–1 Brighton
  12. 49′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 49' Brighton win: 80% at kick-off, 91% now
  13. 50′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 50' Brighton win: 80% at kick-off, 91% now
  14. 50′GOAL DISALLOWED · 50' Brighton
  15. 50′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 50' Brighton win: 80% at kick-off, 60% now
  16. 51′We said Brighton at 80%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 59%. 0–0 · 9–32–59
  17. 55′13 shots for Brighton, 2 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 0–0 · 9–35–56
  18. 56′We expected about 3.4 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 9–36–55
  19. 57′We said Brighton at 80%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 54%. 0–0 · 9–37–54
  20. 62′SUBSTITUTION · 62' FK Jablonec · On: S. Nebyla · Off: M. Polidar
  21. 62′SUBSTITUTION · 62' FK Jablonec · On: G. Kuol · Off: S. Alioum
  22. 62′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 62' Brighton win: 80% at kick-off, 50% now
  23. 64′We said Brighton at 80%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 47%. 0–0 · 9–44–47
  24. 65′🟨 YELLOW · 65' S. Nebyla · FK Jablonec
  25. 67′We said Brighton at 80%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 44%. 0–0 · 8–48–44
  26. 68′THE CALL SWINGS · 68' Draw is now our likeliest result at 49% (was Brighton win 46%)
  27. 68′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Brighton · On: C. Andres · Off: P. Gross
  28. 68′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Brighton · On: L. Vuskovic · Off: O. Boscagli
  29. 68′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Brighton · On: P. David · Off: J. Hinshelwood
  30. 69′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Brighton · On: Y. Ayari · Off: M. O'Riley
  31. 70′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 70' Brighton win: 80% at kick-off, 40% now
  32. 70′🟨 YELLOW · 70' Costinha · Brighton
  33. 71′We said Brighton at 80%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 39%. 0–0 · 8–53–39
  34. 73′🟨 YELLOW · 73' A. Rusek · FK Jablonec
  35. 74′SUBSTITUTION · 74' FK Jablonec · On: D. Holly · Off: A. Rusek
  36. 75′We said Brighton at 80%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 33%. 0–0 · 7–60–33
  37. 77′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 77' Brighton win: 80% at kick-off, 30% now
  38. 78′We said Brighton at 80%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 28%. 0–0 · 6–66–28
  39. 78′🟨 YELLOW · 77' D. Pavlovic · FK Jablonec
  40. 79′Brighton have had 16 attempts to 3 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 6–68–26
  41. 80′We said Brighton at 80%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 5–70–24
  42. 82′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 82' Brighton win: 80% at kick-off, 20% now
  43. 83′We said Brighton at 80%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 18%. 0–0 · 4–78–18
  44. 85′🟨 YELLOW · 85' M. Cedidla · FK Jablonec
  45. 86′We said Brighton at 80%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 13%. 0–0 · 3–83–13
  46. 87′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Brighton · On: F. Kadioglu · Off: J. Hadjam
  47. 89′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 89' Brighton win: 80% at kick-off, 10% now
  48. 90′We said Brighton at 80%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 8%. 0–0 · 2–90–8
  49. 91′SUBSTITUTION · 90+1' FK Jablonec · On: J. Chramosta · Off: N. Okeke
  50. 91′SUBSTITUTION · 90+1' FK Jablonec · On: D. Soucek · Off: R. Sedlacek
  51. 92′Brighton have had 20 attempts to 8 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 1–93–6
  52. 93′We said Brighton at 80%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–0 · 1–95–4
  53. 95′Full time, 0–0. We called Brighton at 80% — wrong, and it goes on the record that way. 0–0 · 0–100–0
  54. FTFULL TIME FK Jablonec 0–0 Brighton
  55. FTFK Jablonec 0–0 Brighton · Brighton win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 0–2 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Brighton are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: FK Jablonec 7%, draw 14%, Brighton 80%. Over 2.5 goals 65%, both teams to score 46%.

The AI’s read on FK Jablonec v BrightonBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 16 Oct 00:00 · locked at kick-off

FK Jablonec win7%
Draw14%
Brighton win80%

Kick-offTHU 22 OCT · 17:45

RoundLeague stage · matchday 2

VenueStadion Strelnice

RefereeS. Kringstad

Line-ups

FK Jablonec

4-2-3-1

Brighton

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

FK Jablonec

Brighton

4Days since last match4

Last match: 18 Oct · Czech Liga

Last match: 18 Oct · the English Premier League

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
1Brighton1+43
23FK Jablonec1−10

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

FK Jablonec

4-2-3-1

1 J. Hanus

18 M. Cedidla

4 N. Tekijaski

15 D. Pavlovic

20 J. Slama

13 R. Sedlacek

6 N. Okeke

7 V. Chanturishvili

17 S. Alioum

21 M. Polidar

9 A. Rusek

Coach · Lubos Kozel

Substitutes

99 · K. Mihelak

57 · F. Novak

14 · D. Soucek

12 · D. Nykrin

31 · E. Maly

8 · F. Zorvan

24 · D. Holly

25 · S. Nebyla

19 · J. Chramosta

34 · A. Kubat

36 · G. Kuol

Brighton

4-2-3-1

1 B. Verbruggen

20 Costinha

30 M. Svoboda

21 O. Boscagli

3 J. Hadjam

13 P. Gross

35 M. Yalcouye

33 M. O'Riley

8 J. Hinshelwood

15 I. Osman

10 G. Rutter

Coach · Fabian Hurzeler

Substitutes

38 · T. McGill

61 · S. Hall

5 · L. Dunk

24 · F. Kadioglu

44 · L. Vuskovic

26 · Y. Ayari

14 · C. Andres

59 · Y. Ibrahim

50 · S. Nti

19 · C. Kostoulas

12 · P. David

49 · N. Oriola

Our number · brighton winFirst published 16 Oct 00:00 · updated 19 Oct 00:20 · locked at kick-off
80% The market81%
Us80%
Market81%

We make Brighton an 80% chance to win. The market has them at 81%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 0.7–2.7.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · FK Jablonec v Brighton0.67 – 2.69
Form · last six in UEFA Europa Conference League this season · since 30 JulyW4 D0 L2 · W2 D1 L0
Table places · points 0 v 323 v 1
The market · Brighton win81% · ours 80%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
65%70%75%80%85% 16 OCT 00:0022 OCT 17:43
Our probability · Brighton win The market, margin stripped

Published at 78%, 80% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 81% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
FK Jablonec win7%6%+1
Draw14%12%+2
Brighton win80%81%−1
Over 2.5 goals65%66%−1
Both teams to score46%45%+1
Over 1.5 goals85%84%+1
Over 3.5 goals43%46%−3
FK Jablonec or draw20%19%+1
FK Jablonec clean sheet7%––
Brighton clean sheet51%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–2 at 12.6%
0123450 3.7 9.2 12.6 11.3 7.6 4.11 2.1 6.5 8.4 7.5 5.1 2.72 2.1 2.8 2.5 3 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+FK Jablonec down, Brighton across0–5 goals a side shown (94.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in UEFA Europa Conference League this season · since 30 July

FK JABLONEC

WWWLWL2–0 · 2–0 · 2–1 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 2–3

BRIGHTON

DWW0–0 · 4–0 · 4–0

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Brighton1+43
2FC Copenhagen1+33
3Trabzonspor1+23
4Atalanta1+23
5Mjallby AIF1+23
6St. Truiden1+23
7SC Freiburg1+13
8FC Lugano1+13
9Monaco1+13
10HNK Hajduk Split1+13
11Panathinaikos1+13
12Brann1+13
13Gent1+13
14Twente1+13
15Getafe101
16FC Midtjylland101
17FC Nordsjaelland101
18Kairat Almaty101
19Heart Of Midlothian101
20Egnatia Rrogozhinë101
21Universitatea Craiova101
22Riga101
23FK Jablonec1−10
24FK Crvena Zvezda1−10
25Ajax1−10
26Borac Banja Luka1−10
27Lincoln Red Imps FC1−10
28CSKA Sofia1−10
29Aarhus1−10
30FC Thun1−10
31KuPS1−20
32Pafos1−20
33Inter Club d'Escaldes1−20
34FC Iberia 19991−20
35SC Braga1−30
36Kauno Žalgiris1−40

The competition's standings before kick-off.