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FK Crvena Zvezda v FC Copenhagen

FK Crvena Zvezda

2–2Full time

FC Copenhagen

UEFA Europa Conference League · THU 22 OCT · Stadion Rajko Mit

Full timeGraded 22 Oct 20:28

FK Crvena Zvezda 2–2 FC Copenhagen FK CRVENA ZVEZDA WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said FK Crvena Zvezda win~~39%

~~The market said~~41%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.842

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.805

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay20 notes · 31 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said FK Crvena Zvezda win at 39%.
1′Little has changed for our model: FK Crvena Zvezda 39% before kick-off, 39% now. 0–0 · 39–25–36
1′KICK-OFF FK Crvena Zvezda v FC Copenhagen
13′🟨 YELLOW · 13' J. Suzuki · FC Copenhagen
23′🟨 YELLOW · 23' Y. Nakayama · FK Crvena Zvezda
28′We said FK Crvena Zvezda at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–22–64
28′⚽ GOAL · 28' FK Crvena Zvezda 0–1 FC Copenhagen
28′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 28' FK Crvena Zvezda win: 39% at kick-off, 14% now
28′THE CALL SWINGS · 28' FC Copenhagen win is now our likeliest result at 64% (was FK Crvena Zvezda win 36%)
30′An own goal by FK Crvena Zvezda's M. Gashtarov on 29′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 14–22–64
31′The goal count is tracking the 3.0 we expected. 0–1 · 14–22–64
34′⚽ GOAL · 34' FK Crvena Zvezda 1–1 FC Copenhagen
34′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 34' FK Crvena Zvezda win: 39% at kick-off, 35% now
35′35′: T. Elsnik on the scoresheet for FK Crvena Zvezda, making it 1–1. 1–1 · 35–33–32
36′34′: T. Elsnik on the scoresheet for FK Crvena Zvezda, making it 1–1. 1–1 · 35–33–32
39′🟨 YELLOW · 39' R. Krunic · FK Crvena Zvezda
41′We said FK Crvena Zvezda at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 69%. 2–1 · 69–21–10
41′3 goals already, more than the 3.0 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 69–21–10
41′⚽ GOAL · 41' FK Crvena Zvezda 2–1 FC Copenhagen
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 41' FK Crvena Zvezda win: 39% at kick-off, 69% now
41′THE CALL SWINGS · 41' FK Crvena Zvezda win is now our likeliest result at 69% (was FC Copenhagen win 65%)
41′🟨 YELLOW · 41' H. Nemeth · FC Copenhagen
43′FK Crvena Zvezda ahead on 41′ through V. Kostov. 2–1. 2–1 · 69–21–10
45′We said FK Crvena Zvezda at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 70%. 2–1 · 70–21–9
45′SECOND HALF FK Crvena Zvezda 2–1 FC Copenhagen
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' FC Copenhagen · On: A. Markgraf · Off: J. Suzuki
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' FC Copenhagen · On: V. Dadason · Off: A. Cornelius
47′HALF-TIME FK Crvena Zvezda 2–1 FC Copenhagen
62′We said FK Crvena Zvezda at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 2–1 · 75–20–5
62′SUBSTITUTION · 62' FK Crvena Zvezda · On: M. Cham · Off: T. Handel
63′SUBSTITUTION · 63' FC Copenhagen · On: M. Lopez · Off: R. Huescas
63′SUBSTITUTION · 63' FC Copenhagen · On: M. Madsen · Off: Robert
69′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 69' FK Crvena Zvezda win: 39% at kick-off, 79% now
70′We said FK Crvena Zvezda at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 22%. 2–2 · 22–57–21
70′10 shots for FK Crvena Zvezda, 4 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 2–2 · 22–57–21
70′⚽ GOAL · 70' FK Crvena Zvezda 2–2 FC Copenhagen
70′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 70' FK Crvena Zvezda win: 39% at kick-off, 22% now
70′THE CALL SWINGS · 70' Draw is now our likeliest result at 57% (was FK Crvena Zvezda win 79%)
71′M. Carrizo scores for FC Copenhagen on 70′ — 2–2. 2–2 · 21–59–20
73′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.0 across ninety minutes. 2–2 · 20–62–19
74′We said FK Crvena Zvezda at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 2–2 · 19–63–18
74′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 74' FK Crvena Zvezda win: 39% at kick-off, 19% now
80′SUBSTITUTION · 80' FC Copenhagen · On: M. Elyounoussi · Off: M. Carrizo
84′We said FK Crvena Zvezda at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 2–2 · 9–83–8
84′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 84' FK Crvena Zvezda win: 39% at kick-off, 9% now
85′SUBSTITUTION · 85' FK Crvena Zvezda · On: L. Loizou · Off: V. Lucic
85′SUBSTITUTION · 85' FK Crvena Zvezda · On: M. Abu Fani · Off: V. Kostov
91′We said FK Crvena Zvezda at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 2–2 · 4–92–4
93′🟥 RED CARD · 90+3' FK Crvena Zvezda
94′FK Crvena Zvezda are down to ten from 90′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 2–2 · 2–97–2
94′2–2 at the end. Our 39% on FK Crvena Zvezda misses, and the record keeps it. 2–2 · 0–100–0
FTFULL TIME FK Crvena Zvezda 2–2 FC Copenhagen
FTFK Crvena Zvezda 2–2 FC Copenhagen · FK Crvena Zvezda win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with FK Crvena Zvezda just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: FK Crvena Zvezda 39%, draw 25%, FC Copenhagen 36%. Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 60%.

The AI’s read on FK Crvena Zvezda v FC CopenhagenBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 16 Oct 00:00 · locked at kick-off

FK Crvena Zvezda win39%

Draw25%

FC Copenhagen win36%

Kick-offTHU 22 OCT · 17:45

RoundLeague stage · matchday 2

VenueStadion Rajko Mit

RefereeR. M. Petrescu

Line-ups

FK Crvena Zvezda

3-2-4-1

FC Copenhagen

3-4-2-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

FK Crvena Zvezda

FC Copenhagen

4Days since last match4

Last match: 18 Oct · the Serbian Super Liga

Last match: 18 Oct · the Danish Superliga

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	FC Copenhagen	1	+3	3
24	FK Crvena Zvezda	1	−1	0

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

FK Crvena Zvezda

3-2-4-1

1 Matheus

60 M. Gashtarov

45 S. Gudelj

3 Y. Nakayama

20 T. Handel

33 R. Krunic

37 V. Lucic

21 T. Elsnik

22 V. Kostov

23 M. Ristic

9 B. Dieng

Coach · Albert Riera

Substitutes

50 · S. Radanovic

13 · M. Veljkovic

30 · F. Tebo Uchenna

19 · Kim Ye-geon

10 · A. Katai

4 · M. Ivanic

15 · M. Abu Fani

70 · M. Cham

6 · M. Bajo

7 · M. Arnautovic

75 · L. Loizou

8 · K. Balov

FC Copenhagen

3-4-2-1

1 D. Ramaj

2 F. Beijmo

4 A. Sorensen

20 J. Suzuki

13 R. Huescas

28 H. Nemeth

27 T. Delaney

24 B. Meling

7 M. Carrizo

16 Robert

14 A. Cornelius

Coach · Bo Svensson

Substitutes

31 · R. A. Runarsson

51 · T. Breum-Harild

6 · A. Markgraf

15 · M. Lopez

18 · K. Myrie

21 · M. Madsen

36 · W. Clem

34 · M. Nasnas

10 · M. Elyounoussi

39 · V. Dadason

45 · G. Olsen

44 · G. Vianney Ndjee

Our number · fk crvena zvezda winFirst published 16 Oct 00:00 · locked at kick-off

39% The market41%

Us39%

~~Market~~41%

We make FK Crvena Zvezda a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 41%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.5–1.5.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · FK Crvena Zvezda v FC Copenhagen~~1.53 – 1.46

~~Form · last six in UEFA Europa Conference League this season · since 29 July~~W0 D0 L1 · W5 D1 L0

~~Table places · points 0 v 3~~24 v 2

~~The market · FK Crvena Zvezda win~~41% · ours 39%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · FK Crvena Zvezda win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 41% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
FK Crvena Zvezda win	39%	41%	−2
Draw	25%	27%	−2
FC Copenhagen win	36%	32%	+4
Over 2.5 goals	57%	54%	+3
Both teams to score	60%	58%	+2
Over 1.5 goals	80%	77%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	35%	33%	+2
FK Crvena Zvezda or draw	64%	68%	−4
FK Crvena Zvezda clean sheet	23%	–	–
FC Copenhagen clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.6%

0123450 5.4 7.0 5.3 2.6 1 7.4 11.6 8.2 4.0 2 5.9 8.6 6.3 3.0 3 3.0 4.4 3.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+FK Crvena Zvezda down, FC Copenhagen across0–5 goals a side shown (99.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates the clubs of 637 leagues on one scale, from the 408,373 league, cup and continental matches of the last three years up to 21 Oct 2026: each club against its own league, and the leagues against each other through the matches between them, weighting recent matches more.

The two leagues

FK Crvena Zvezda play in the Serbian Super Liga, FC Copenhagen in the Danish Superliga.

Venue

Allows for home advantage: FK Crvena Zvezda are at home.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021/22.

What the model expects

1.53 goals for FK Crvena Zvezda, 1.46 for FC Copenhagen. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 22 Oct 17:20. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in UEFA Europa Conference League this season · since 29 July

FK CRVENA ZVEZDA

L2–3

FC COPENHAGEN

WWWDWW2–1 · 3–0 · 5–1 · 0–0 · 4–1 · 3–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Brighton	1	+4	3
2	FC Copenhagen	1	+3	3
3	Trabzonspor	1	+2	3
4	Atalanta	1	+2	3
5	Mjallby AIF	1	+2	3
6	St. Truiden	1	+2	3
7	SC Freiburg	1	+1	3
8	FC Lugano	1	+1	3
9	Monaco	1	+1	3
10	HNK Hajduk Split	1	+1	3
11	Panathinaikos	1	+1	3
12	Brann	1	+1	3
13	Gent	1	+1	3
14	Twente	1	+1	3
15	Getafe	1	0	1
16	FC Midtjylland	1	0	1
17	FC Nordsjaelland	1	0	1
18	Kairat Almaty	1	0	1
19	Heart Of Midlothian	1	0	1
20	Egnatia Rrogozhinë	1	0	1
21	Universitatea Craiova	1	0	1
22	Riga	1	0	1
23	FK Jablonec	1	−1	0
24	FK Crvena Zvezda	1	−1	0
25	Ajax	1	−1	0
26	Borac Banja Luka	1	−1	0
27	Lincoln Red Imps FC	1	−1	0
28	CSKA Sofia	1	−1	0
29	Aarhus	1	−1	0
30	FC Thun	1	−1	0
31	KuPS	1	−2	0
32	Pafos	1	−2	0
33	Inter Club d'Escaldes	1	−2	0
34	FC Iberia 1999	1	−2	0
35	SC Braga	1	−3	0
36	Kauno Žalgiris	1	−4	0