FC Thun v HNK Hajduk Split prediction · UEFA Europa Conference League

Full timeGraded 22 Oct 23:00

FC Thun 0–1 HNK Hajduk Split HNK HAJDUK SPLIT WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said HNK Hajduk Split win~~38%

~~The market said~~40%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.583

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.533

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 25 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said HNK Hajduk Split win at 38%.
1′Much as we predicted: HNK Hajduk Split was 38% before kick-off and our model makes it 38% now. 0–0 · 37–25–38
1′KICK-OFF FC Thun v HNK Hajduk Split
16′We published HNK Hajduk Split at 38%. Our model now makes it 64%. 0–1 · 15–20–64
16′⚽ GOAL · 16' FC Thun 0–1 HNK Hajduk Split
16′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 16' HNK Hajduk Split win: 38% at kick-off, 64% now
17′HNK Hajduk Split find the net on 17′. 0–1. 0–1 · 15–20–65
18′We published HNK Hajduk Split at 38%. Our model now makes it 65%. 0–1 · 15–20–65
30′Goals are coming at about the 3.0 we expected. 0–1 · 13–21–66
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 39' HNK Hajduk Split win: 38% at kick-off, 68% now
45′SECOND HALF FC Thun 0–1 HNK Hajduk Split
47′HALF-TIME FC Thun 0–1 HNK Hajduk Split
48′We published HNK Hajduk Split at 38%. Our model now makes it 70%. 0–1 · 9–22–70
48′🟨 YELLOW · 48' A. del Moral · HNK Hajduk Split
57′🟨 YELLOW · 56' J. Roth · FC Thun
62′We published HNK Hajduk Split at 38%. Our model now makes it 75%. 0–1 · 5–20–75
65′🟨 YELLOW · 64' D. Maresic · HNK Hajduk Split
68′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 68' HNK Hajduk Split win: 38% at kick-off, 78% now
68′PENALTY MISSED · 67' M. Sego · HNK Hajduk Split
70′SUBSTITUTION · 70' FC Thun · On: N. Christoffersson · Off: F. Dursun
70′SUBSTITUTION · 70' FC Thun · On: N. Zoukit · Off: N. Maier
70′SUBSTITUTION · 70' HNK Hajduk Split · On: D. Melnjak · Off: M. Soticek
71′We published HNK Hajduk Split at 38%. Our model now makes it 80%. 0–1 · 3–17–80
73′🟨 YELLOW · 73' N. Reichmuth · FC Thun
78′We published HNK Hajduk Split at 38%. Our model now makes it 85%. 0–1 · 1–13–85
78′SUBSTITUTION · 77' FC Thun · On: D. Derbaci · Off: J. Roth
78′SUBSTITUTION · 77' FC Thun · On: R. Braschi · Off: B. Labeau
78′SUBSTITUTION · 78' HNK Hajduk Split · On: M. Livaja · Off: M. Sego
78′SUBSTITUTION · 78' HNK Hajduk Split · On: L. Dendoncker · Off: A. del Moral
81′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 81' HNK Hajduk Split win: 38% at kick-off, 88% now
83′We published HNK Hajduk Split at 38%. Our model now makes it 90%. 0–1 · 1–9–90
84′SUBSTITUTION · 83' FC Thun · On: S. Lengen · Off: N. Reichmuth
84′SUBSTITUTION · 84' HNK Hajduk Split · On: C. Martin · Off: A. Sanyang
84′SUBSTITUTION · 84' HNK Hajduk Split · On: A. Van Hoorenbeeck · Off: K. Fayad
90′We published HNK Hajduk Split at 38%. Our model now makes it 95%. 0–1 · 0–4–95
93′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+3' HNK Hajduk Split win: 38% at kick-off, 98% now
94′Full time, 0–1. We called HNK Hajduk Split at 38% — that one lands. 0–1 · 0–0–100
FTFULL TIME FC Thun 0–1 HNK Hajduk Split
FTFC Thun 0–1 HNK Hajduk Split · HNK Hajduk Split win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with HNK Hajduk Split just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: FC Thun 37%, draw 25%, HNK Hajduk Split 38%. Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 60%.

The AI’s read on FC Thun v HNK Hajduk SplitBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 16 Oct 00:00 · locked at kick-off

FC Thun win37%

Draw25%

HNK Hajduk Split win38%

Kick-offTHU 22 OCT · 20:00

RoundLeague stage · matchday 2

VenueStockhorn Arena

RefereeJ. Gillett

Line-ups

FC Thun

4-4-2

HNK Hajduk Split

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

FC Thun

HNK Hajduk Split

4Days since last match4

Last match: 18 Oct · Schweizer Cup

Last match: 18 Oct · HNL

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
11	HNK Hajduk Split	1	+1	3
30	FC Thun	1	−1	0

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

FC Thun

4-4-2

1 N. Steffen

47 F. Fehr

23 M. Burki

19 J. Bamert

2 O. Mambwa

70 N. Reichmuth

16 J. Roth

14 M. Kait

30 N. Maier

96 B. Labeau

9 F. Dursun

Coach · Luca Privitelli Gian

Substitutes

25 · T. Spycher

22 · D. Walti

5 · N. Burgy

54 · L. Passavant

37 · L. Dahler

18 · T. Strannegard

13 · N. Zoukit

21 · D. Derbaci

80 · S. Lengen

52 · A. Ilic

26 · N. Christoffersson

20 · R. Braschi

HNK Hajduk Split

4-2-3-1

33 T. Silic

22 M. Acapandie

6 D. Hadzikadunic

15 D. Maresic

32 S. Hrgovic

8 K. Fayad

20 A. del Moral

7 A. Sanyang

9 D. de Almeida

23 M. Soticek

11 M. Sego

Coach · Gonzalo Garcia

Substitutes

44 · D. Stipica

99 · D. Fesyuk

5 · A. Van Hoorenbeeck

14 · R. Raci

17 · D. Melnjak

3 · R. Gabric

77 · C. Martin

26 · A. Huram

18 · L. Dendoncker

19 · E. Brruti

16 · A. Sutalo

10 · M. Livaja

Our number · hnk hajduk split winFirst published 16 Oct 00:00 · locked at kick-off

38% The market40%

Us38%

~~Market~~40%

We make HNK Hajduk Split a 38% chance to win. The market has them at 40%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.5–1.5.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · FC Thun v HNK Hajduk Split~~1.47 – 1.50

~~Form · UEFA Europa Conference League this season · since 6 Aug~~W0 D0 L1 · W3 D2 L0

~~Table places · points 0 v 3~~30 v 11

~~The market · HNK Hajduk Split win~~40% · ours 38%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · HNK Hajduk Split win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 40% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
FC Thun win	37%	33%	+4
Draw	25%	27%	−2
HNK Hajduk Split win	38%	40%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	57%	59%	−2
Both teams to score	60%	63%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	80%	81%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	35%	39%	−4
FC Thun or draw	62%	60%	+2
FC Thun clean sheet	22%	–	–
HNK Hajduk Split clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.7%

0123450 5.5 7.3 5.7 2.9 1 7.2 11.7 8.5 4.2 2 5.5 8.3 6.2 3.1 3 2.7 4.1 3.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+FC Thun down, HNK Hajduk Split across0–5 goals a side shown (99.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates the clubs of 637 leagues on one scale, from the 408,373 league, cup and continental matches of the last three years up to 21 Oct 2026: each club against its own league, and the leagues against each other through the matches between them, weighting recent matches more.

The two leagues

FC Thun play in the Swiss Super League, HNK Hajduk Split in HNL.

Venue

Allows for home advantage: FC Thun are at home.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021/22.

What the model expects

1.47 goals for FC Thun, 1.50 for HNK Hajduk Split. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 22 Oct 19:30. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · UEFA Europa Conference League this season · since 6 Aug

FC THUN

L0–1

HNK HAJDUK SPLIT

WWDDW5–2 · 4–0 · 2–2 · 2–2 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Panathinaikos	2	+5	6
2	Brighton	1	+4	3
3	FC Copenhagen	1	+3	3
4	Trabzonspor	1	+2	3
5	Atalanta	1	+2	3
6	Mjallby AIF	1	+2	3
7	St. Truiden	1	+2	3
8	SC Freiburg	1	+1	3
9	FC Lugano	1	+1	3
10	Monaco	1	+1	3
11	HNK Hajduk Split	1	+1	3
12	Brann	1	+1	3
13	Gent	1	+1	3
14	Twente	1	+1	3
15	Getafe	1	0	1
16	FC Midtjylland	1	0	1
17	FC Nordsjaelland	1	0	1
18	Heart Of Midlothian	1	0	1
19	Egnatia Rrogozhinë	1	0	1
20	Universitatea Craiova	1	0	1
21	Riga	1	0	1
22	Kairat Almaty	2	−4	1
23	FK Jablonec	1	−1	0
24	FK Crvena Zvezda	1	−1	0
25	Ajax	1	−1	0
26	Borac Banja Luka	1	−1	0
27	Lincoln Red Imps FC	1	−1	0
28	CSKA Sofia	1	−1	0
29	Aarhus	1	−1	0
30	FC Thun	1	−1	0
31	KuPS	1	−2	0
32	Pafos	1	−2	0
33	Inter Club d'Escaldes	1	−2	0
34	FC Iberia 1999	1	−2	0
35	SC Braga	1	−3	0
36	Kauno Žalgiris	1	−4	0