FC Nordsjaelland v CSKA Sofia

1. 0′Before kick-off: we said FC Nordsjaelland win at 60%.
2. 1′Little has changed for our model: FC Nordsjaelland 60% before kick-off, 59% now. 0–0 · 59–23–17
3. 1′KICK-OFF FC Nordsjaelland v CSKA Sofia
4. 7′We said FC Nordsjaelland at 60%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 33%. 0–1 · 33–25–42
5. 7′⚽ GOAL · 7' FC Nordsjaelland 0–1 CSKA Sofia
6. 7′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 7' FC Nordsjaelland win: 60% at kick-off, 33% now
7. 7′THE CALL SWINGS · 7' CSKA Sofia win is now our likeliest result at 42% (was FC Nordsjaelland win 58%)
8. 8′CSKA Sofia ahead on 8′ through L. Godoy. 0–1. 0–1 · 32–25–42
9. 14′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 14' FC Nordsjaelland win: 60% at kick-off, 30% now
10. 17′We said FC Nordsjaelland at 60%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 0–1 · 29–27–44
11. 21′🟨 YELLOW · 21' B. Jordao · CSKA Sofia
12. 22′🟨 YELLOW · 20' D. Almeida · CSKA Sofia
13. 29′We said FC Nordsjaelland at 60%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–1 · 24–28–48
14. 30′The goal count is tracking the 2.7 we expected. 0–1 · 24–28–48
15. 31′SUBSTITUTION · 31' FC Nordsjaelland · On: T. Salquist · Off: V. Nelsson
16. 36′🟨 YELLOW · 36' FC Nordsjaelland
17. 37′🟨 YELLOW · 37' S. Acquah · FC Nordsjaelland
18. 38′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 38' FC Nordsjaelland win: 60% at kick-off, 20% now
19. 40′We said FC Nordsjaelland at 60%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–1 · 19–29–52
20. 45′SECOND HALF FC Nordsjaelland 0–1 CSKA Sofia
21. 49′HALF-TIME FC Nordsjaelland 0–1 CSKA Sofia
22. 51′We said FC Nordsjaelland at 60%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–28–57
23. 54′We said FC Nordsjaelland at 60%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 41%. 1–1 · 41–43–16
24. 54′⚽ GOAL · 54' FC Nordsjaelland 1–1 CSKA Sofia
25. 54′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 54' FC Nordsjaelland win: 60% at kick-off, 41% now
26. 56′I. Adel scores for FC Nordsjaelland on 55′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 40–44–16
27. 57′THE CALL SWINGS · 57' Draw is now our likeliest result at 45% (was CSKA Sofia win 59%)
28. 58′We said FC Nordsjaelland at 60%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 38%. 1–1 · 38–46–15
29. 59′🟨 YELLOW · 59' J. Janssen · FC Nordsjaelland
30. 62′SUBSTITUTION · 61' FC Nordsjaelland · On: M. Heyde · Off: N. Rojkjaer
31. 62′SUBSTITUTION · 62' FC Nordsjaelland · On: H. Rasmussen · Off: V. Berthelsen
32. 63′CSKA Sofia have had 9 attempts to 4 and it is still 1–1. 1–1 · 35–51–14
33. 66′We said FC Nordsjaelland at 60% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 86%. 2–1 · 86–12–2
34. 66′SUBSTITUTION · 65' CSKA Sofia · On: C. Itu · Off: P. Panayotov
35. 66′⚽ GOAL · 66' FC Nordsjaelland 2–1 CSKA Sofia
36. 66′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 66' FC Nordsjaelland win: 60% at kick-off, 86% now
37. 66′THE CALL SWINGS · 66' FC Nordsjaelland win is now our likeliest result at 86% (was Draw 54%)
38. 67′3 goals already, more than the 2.7 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 87–12–1
39. 68′67′: I. Adel on the scoresheet for FC Nordsjaelland, making it 2–1. 2–1 · 87–12–1
40. 75′We said FC Nordsjaelland at 60% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 2–1 · 90–10–1
41. 75′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 75' FC Nordsjaelland win: 60% at kick-off, 90% now
42. 75′🟥 RED CARD · 75' FC Nordsjaelland
43. 77′FC Nordsjaelland are down to ten from 77′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 2–1 · 91–9–1
44. 77′🟨 YELLOW · 77' J. Janssen · FC Nordsjaelland
45. 78′SUBSTITUTION · 78' CSKA Sofia · On: I. Solet · Off: D. Almeida
46. 78′SUBSTITUTION · 78' CSKA Sofia · On: T. Ivanov · Off: M. Ebong
47. 82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' FC Nordsjaelland · On: M. Brink · Off: I. Adel
48. 83′SUBSTITUTION · 83' FC Nordsjaelland · On: M. Walker · Off: J. Lahteenmaki
49. 84′We said FC Nordsjaelland at 60% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 2–1 · 95–5–0
50. 85′🟨 YELLOW · 84' T. Ivanov · CSKA Sofia
51. 85′SUBSTITUTION · 85' CSKA Sofia · On: J. Eto'o · Off: Pastor
52. 87′We said FC Nordsjaelland at 60%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 8%. 2–2 · 8–88–4
53. 87′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.7 across ninety minutes. 2–2 · 8–88–4
54. 87′⚽ GOAL · 87' FC Nordsjaelland 2–2 CSKA Sofia
55. 87′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 87' FC Nordsjaelland win: 60% at kick-off, 8% now
56. 87′THE CALL SWINGS · 87' Draw is now our likeliest result at 88% (was FC Nordsjaelland win 96%)
57. 89′CSKA Sofia level it on 88′ through I. Solet. 2–2. 2–2 · 7–90–3
58. 91′🟨 YELLOW · 90' A. Hansen · FC Nordsjaelland
59. 91′🟨 YELLOW · 90+1' I. Solet · CSKA Sofia
60. 91′🟨 YELLOW · 90+1' B. Jordao · CSKA Sofia
61. 92′We said FC Nordsjaelland at 60%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 2–2 · 4–94–2
62. 94′🟨 YELLOW · 90+4' N. Markmann · FC Nordsjaelland
63. 96′2–2 at the end. Our 60% on FC Nordsjaelland misses, and the record keeps it. 2–2 · 0–100–0
64. FTFULL TIME FC Nordsjaelland 2–2 CSKA Sofia
65. FTFC Nordsjaelland 2–2 CSKA Sofia · FC Nordsjaelland win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.