FC Midtjylland v St. Truiden prediction · UEFA Europa Conference League

Full timeGraded 22 Oct 23:00

FC Midtjylland 0–1 St. Truiden FC MIDTJYLLAND WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said FC Midtjylland win~~61%

~~The market said~~56%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~1.084

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.999

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 23 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said FC Midtjylland win at 61%.
1′Little has changed for our model: FC Midtjylland 61% before kick-off, 61% now. 0–0 · 61–21–18
1′KICK-OFF FC Midtjylland v St. Truiden
11′🟨 YELLOW · 11' R. Vanwesemael · St. Truiden
23′🟨 YELLOW · 23' P. Bravo · FC Midtjylland
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 37' FC Midtjylland win: 61% at kick-off, 51% now
42′42′: F. Soelle on the scoresheet for St. Truiden, making it 0–1. 0–1 · 21–28–51
42′⚽ GOAL · 42' FC Midtjylland 0–1 St. Truiden · F. Soelle
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' FC Midtjylland win: 61% at kick-off, 21% now
42′THE CALL SWINGS · 42' St. Truiden win is now our likeliest result at 51% (was FC Midtjylland win 49%)
43′We said FC Midtjylland at 61%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 21%. 0–1 · 21–28–51
45′HALF-TIME FC Midtjylland 0–1 St. Truiden
46′We said FC Midtjylland at 61%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–1 · 19–28–53
46′SECOND HALF FC Midtjylland 0–1 St. Truiden
47′SUBSTITUTION · 46' FC Midtjylland · On: F. Etim · Off: M. Rajovic
47′SUBSTITUTION · 47' FC Midtjylland · On: Cho Gue-Sung · Off: P. Bravo
47′SUBSTITUTION · 47' FC Midtjylland · On: S. Iheanacho · Off: Hong Hyun-Seok
56′We said FC Midtjylland at 61%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–28–58
61′🟨 YELLOW · 59' I. Sebaoui · St. Truiden
61′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 61' FC Midtjylland win: 61% at kick-off, 11% now
65′We said FC Midtjylland at 61%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–26–64
68′FC Midtjylland have had 15 attempts to 10 and it is still 0–1. 0–1 · 8–25–67
71′SUBSTITUTION · 70' FC Midtjylland · On: V. Bak · Off: D. Martinez
74′SUBSTITUTION · 74' St. Truiden · On: S. Bazdar · Off: F. Soelle
74′SUBSTITUTION · 71' St. Truiden · On: K. Matsuzawa · Off: R. Merlen
75′We said FC Midtjylland at 61%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–1 · 4–21–74
80′FC Midtjylland have had 17 attempts to 11 and it is still 0–1. 0–1 · 2–17–81
82′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 82' FC Midtjylland win: 61% at kick-off, 1% now
82′SUBSTITUTION · 82' FC Midtjylland · On: A. Ndiaye · Off: J. Emefile Corrected
86′SUBSTITUTION · 85' St. Truiden · On: A. Muja · Off: N. Mbuku
87′SUBSTITUTION · 87' St. Truiden · On: T. Hata · Off: J. Pupe
95′SUBSTITUTION · 90+5' St. Truiden · On: W. Janssens · Off: R. Vanwesemael
FTFULL TIME FC Midtjylland 0–1 St. Truiden
FTFC Midtjylland 0–1 St. Truiden · FC Midtjylland win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

FC Midtjylland are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: FC Midtjylland 61%, draw 21%, St. Truiden 18%. Over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 59%.

The AI’s read on FC Midtjylland v St. TruidenBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 16 Oct 00:00 · locked at kick-off

FC Midtjylland win61%

Draw21%

St. Truiden win18%

Kick-offTHU 22 OCT · 20:00

RoundLeague stage · matchday 2

VenueMCH Arena

RefereeJ. Xhaja

Line-ups

FC Midtjylland

3-1-4-2

St. Truiden

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

FC Midtjylland

St. Truiden

3Days since last match4

Last match: 19 Oct · the Danish Superliga

Last match: 18 Oct · the Belgian Cup

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	St. Truiden	1	+2	3
16	FC Midtjylland	1	0	1

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

FC Midtjylland

3-1-4-2

25 N. Bakker

5 R. Kristensen

4 O. Diao

22 M. B. Sorensen

19 P. Bravo

98 D. Martinez

20 Hong Hyun-Seok

29 K. Watjen

27 S. Johannesen

38 J. Emefile

9 M. Rajovic

Coach · Mike Tullberg

Substitutes

30 · O. Ejeheri

60 · M. Ugboh

55 · V. Bak

15 · D. Beni

34 · A. Ndiaye

10 · Cho Gue-Sung

18 · S. Iheanacho

17 · M. Uhre

90 · F. Etim

St. Truiden

Formation not confirmed

16 L. Kokubo

60 R. Vanwesemael

4 K. Takai

26 V. Musliu

23 J. Pupe

8 A. Sissako

18 N. Ishiwatari

11 N. Mbuku

14 R. Merlen

10 I. Sebaoui

19 F. Soelle

Coach · –

Substitutes

21 · M. Lendfers

35 · Y. Ngoy

27 · J. Mbambi

5 · S. Taniguchi

3 · T. Hata

71 · R. Araki

38 · K. Matsuzawa

22 · W. Janssens

7 · A. Muja

99 · S. Shinkawa

9 · S. Bazdar

77 · O. Diouf

Our number · fc midtjylland winFirst published 16 Oct 00:00 · updated 22 Oct 00:17 · locked at kick-off

61% The market56%

Us61%

~~Market~~56%

We make FC Midtjylland a 61% chance to win. The market has them at 56%. We are 5 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.1–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · FC Midtjylland v St. Truiden~~2.13 – 1.08

~~Form · UEFA Europa Conference League this season · since 6 Aug~~W4 D1 L0 · W1 D0 L0

~~Table places · points 1 v 3~~16 v 7

~~The market · FC Midtjylland win~~56% · ours 61%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · FC Midtjylland win The market, margin stripped

Published at 63%, 61% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 56% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
FC Midtjylland win	61%	56%	+5
Draw	21%	24%	−3
St. Truiden win	18%	21%	−3
Over 2.5 goals	62%	59%	+3
Both teams to score	59%	59%	0
Over 1.5 goals	83%	80%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	40%	39%	+1
FC Midtjylland or draw	82%	79%	+3
FC Midtjylland clean sheet	34%	–	–
St. Truiden clean sheet	12%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 9.9%

0123450 4.3 4.1 2.4 1 8.3 9.6 5.0 2 9.1 9.9 5.4 3 6.5 7.0 3.8 4 3.4 3.7 2.0 5

under 2% 5% 12%+FC Midtjylland down, St. Truiden across0–5 goals a side shown (97.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates the clubs of 637 leagues on one scale, from the 408,373 league, cup and continental matches of the last three years up to 21 Oct 2026: each club against its own league, and the leagues against each other through the matches between them, weighting recent matches more.

The two leagues

FC Midtjylland play in the Danish Superliga, St. Truiden in Jupiler Pro League.

Venue

Allows for home advantage: FC Midtjylland are at home.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021/22.

What the model expects

2.13 goals for FC Midtjylland, 1.08 for St. Truiden. Most likely score 2–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 22 Oct 19:30. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · UEFA Europa Conference League this season · since 6 Aug

FC MIDTJYLLAND

WWWWD2–0 · 3–2 · 2–0 · 4–1 · 1–1

ST. TRUIDEN

W2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Panathinaikos	2	+5	6
2	Brighton	1	+4	3
3	FC Copenhagen	1	+3	3
4	Trabzonspor	1	+2	3
5	Atalanta	1	+2	3
6	Mjallby AIF	1	+2	3
7	St. Truiden	1	+2	3
8	SC Freiburg	1	+1	3
9	FC Lugano	1	+1	3
10	Monaco	1	+1	3
11	HNK Hajduk Split	1	+1	3
12	Brann	1	+1	3
13	Gent	1	+1	3
14	Twente	1	+1	3
15	Getafe	1	0	1
16	FC Midtjylland	1	0	1
17	FC Nordsjaelland	1	0	1
18	Heart Of Midlothian	1	0	1
19	Egnatia Rrogozhinë	1	0	1
20	Universitatea Craiova	1	0	1
21	Riga	1	0	1
22	Kairat Almaty	2	−4	1
23	FK Jablonec	1	−1	0
24	FK Crvena Zvezda	1	−1	0
25	Ajax	1	−1	0
26	Borac Banja Luka	1	−1	0
27	Lincoln Red Imps FC	1	−1	0
28	CSKA Sofia	1	−1	0
29	Aarhus	1	−1	0
30	FC Thun	1	−1	0
31	KuPS	1	−2	0
32	Pafos	1	−2	0
33	Inter Club d'Escaldes	1	−2	0
34	FC Iberia 1999	1	−2	0
35	SC Braga	1	−3	0
36	Kauno Žalgiris	1	−4	0