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FC Lugano v FK Crvena Zvezda

FC Lugano

3–2Full time

FK Crvena Zvezda

UEFA Europa Conference League · THU 15 OCT · AIL Arena

Full timeGraded 15 Oct 20:30

FC Lugano 3–2 FK Crvena Zvezda FK CRVENA ZVEZDA WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said FK Crvena Zvezda win~~39%

~~The market said~~32%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.646

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.515

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay24 notes · 40 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said FK Crvena Zvezda win at 39%.
1′Little has changed for our model: FK Crvena Zvezda 39% before kick-off, 40% now. 0–0 · 35–25–40
1′KICK-OFF FC Lugano v FK Crvena Zvezda
25′A. Ajeti scores for FC Lugano on 25′. 0–0 · 33–30–37
26′We said FK Crvena Zvezda at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–0 · 63–22–14
26′⚽ GOAL · 25' FC Lugano 1–0 FK Crvena Zvezda · A. Ajeti
26′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 26' FK Crvena Zvezda win: 39% at kick-off, 14% now
26′THE CALL SWINGS · 26' FC Lugano win is now our likeliest result at 63% (was FK Crvena Zvezda win 14%)
30′The goal count is tracking the 2.9 we expected. 1–0 · 64–22–13
33′32′: T. Elsnik on the scoresheet for FK Crvena Zvezda, making it 1–1. 1–1 · 32–33–35
33′⚽ GOAL · 32' FC Lugano 1–1 FK Crvena Zvezda · T. Elsnik (assist M. Gashtarov)
33′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 33' FK Crvena Zvezda win: 39% at kick-off, 35% now
34′🟨 YELLOW · 32' V. Kostov · FK Crvena Zvezda
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was FC Lugano win 30%)
45′HALF-TIME FC Lugano 1–1 FK Crvena Zvezda
45′SECOND HALF FC Lugano 1–1 FK Crvena Zvezda
48′FK Crvena Zvezda have had 11 attempts to 6 and it is still 1–1. 1–1 · 29–39–32
55′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 55' FK Crvena Zvezda win: 39% at kick-off, 29% now
55′🟨 YELLOW · 55' R. Steffen · FC Lugano
60′We said FK Crvena Zvezda at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 27%. 1–1 · 25–48–27
61′🟨 YELLOW · 55' L. Mai · FC Lugano
65′14 shots for FK Crvena Zvezda, 6 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 1–1 · 23–53–25
65′SUBSTITUTION · 63' FC Lugano · On: E. Pihlstrom · Off: R. Steffen
65′SUBSTITUTION · 65' FC Lugano · On: K. Behrens · Off: A. Ajeti
65′SUBSTITUTION · 65' FK Crvena Zvezda · On: M. Cham · Off: T. Handel
66′We said FK Crvena Zvezda at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 22–54–24
68′R. Krunic scores for FK Crvena Zvezda on 67′. 1–1 · 21–56–23
68′We said FK Crvena Zvezda at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 79%. 1–2 · 3–18–79
68′3 goals already, more than the 2.9 we expected for the whole match. 1–2 · 3–18–79
68′⚽ GOAL · 67' FC Lugano 1–2 FK Crvena Zvezda · R. Krunic
68′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 68' FK Crvena Zvezda win: 39% at kick-off, 79% now
68′THE CALL SWINGS · 68' FK Crvena Zvezda win is now our likeliest result at 79% (was Draw 18%)
69′We said FK Crvena Zvezda at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–2 · 3–17–80
74′SUBSTITUTION · 73' FC Lugano · On: D. Moncada · Off: B. Karimov
75′SUBSTITUTION · 75' FK Crvena Zvezda · On: K. Balov · Off: V. Lucic
76′SUBSTITUTION · 75' FK Crvena Zvezda · On: M. Strika · Off: M. Ristic
77′We said FK Crvena Zvezda at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–2 · 1–13–85
80′SUBSTITUTION · 80' FC Lugano · On: B. D. Castro Espinosa · Off: D. Dos Santos
80′SUBSTITUTION · 80' FC Lugano · On: E. Alioski · Off: H. Delcroix
81′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 81' FK Crvena Zvezda win: 39% at kick-off, 89% now
82′We said FK Crvena Zvezda at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 1–2 · 1–10–90
82′SUBSTITUTION · 82' FK Crvena Zvezda · On: M. Bajo · Off: R. Krunic
82′SUBSTITUTION · 82' FK Crvena Zvezda · On: M. Arnautovic · Off: B. Dieng
82′🟨 YELLOW · 82' S. Gudelj · FK Crvena Zvezda
84′84′: D. Moncada on the scoresheet for FC Lugano. 1–2 · 0–8–92
85′We said FK Crvena Zvezda at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 8%. 2–2 · 7–85–8
85′⚽ GOAL · 84' FC Lugano 2–2 FK Crvena Zvezda · D. Moncada
85′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 85' FK Crvena Zvezda win: 39% at kick-off, 8% now
85′THE CALL SWINGS · 85' Draw is now our likeliest result at 85% (was FK Crvena Zvezda win 8%)
86′16 shots for FK Crvena Zvezda, 8 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 2–2 · 7–86–7
87′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.9 across ninety minutes. 2–2 · 6–87–7
90′We said FK Crvena Zvezda at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at under 1%. 3–2 · 95–4–0
90′5 goals already, more than the 2.9 we expected for the whole match. 3–2 · 95–4–0
90′3–2 at the end. Our 39% on FK Crvena Zvezda misses, and the record keeps it. 3–2 · 100–0–0
90′⚽ GOAL · 90' FC Lugano 3–2 FK Crvena Zvezda
90′THE CALL SWINGS · 90' FC Lugano win is now our likeliest result at 95% (was Draw 4%)
90′🟨 YELLOW · 90+5' M. Gashtarov · FK Crvena Zvezda
91′90′: A. Grgic on the scoresheet for FC Lugano, making it 3–2. 3–2 · 96–4–0
91′🟨 YELLOW · 90' M. Bajo · FK Crvena Zvezda
91′GOAL DISALLOWED · 90+1' FC Lugano
91′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+1' Draw is now our likeliest result at 93% (was FC Lugano win 4%)
91′⚽ GOAL · 90+1' FC Lugano 3–2 FK Crvena Zvezda · A. Grgic (penalty)
91′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+1' FC Lugano win is now our likeliest result at 96% (was Draw 4%)
92′89′: A. Grgic on the scoresheet for FC Lugano, making it 3–2. 3–2 · 97–3–0
FTFULL TIME FC Lugano 3–2 FK Crvena Zvezda
FTFC Lugano 3–2 FK Crvena Zvezda · FK Crvena Zvezda win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with FK Crvena Zvezda just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: FC Lugano 35%, draw 26%, FK Crvena Zvezda 39%. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 58%.

The AI’s read on FC Lugano v FK Crvena ZvezdaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 9 Oct 07:15 · locked at kick-off

FC Lugano win35%

Draw26%

FK Crvena Zvezda win39%

Kick-offTHU 15 OCT · 17:45

RoundLeague stage · matchday 1

VenueAIL Arena

RefereeF. Badstubner

Line-ups

FC Lugano

3-4-2-1

FK Crvena Zvezda

5-4-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

FC Lugano

FK Crvena Zvezda

5Days since last match5

Last match: 10 Oct · the Swiss Super League

Last match: 10 Oct · the Serbian Super Liga

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
24	FC Lugano	0	0	0
25	FK Crvena Zvezda	0	0	0

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

FC Lugano

3-4-2-1

16 D. von Ballmoos

6 A. Papadopoulos

17 L. Mai

3 H. Delcroix

2 B. Karimov

25 U. Bislimi

8 A. Grgic

21 Y. Cimignani

11 R. Steffen

27 D. Dos Santos

9 A. Ajeti

Coach · Mattia Croci-Torti

Substitutes

28 · F. Gebhardt

99 · D. Mina

7 · E. Alioski

4 · D. Kelvin

26 · M. Marques

14 · A. Kendouci

91 · K. Behrens

22 · B. D. Castro Espinosa

24 · E. Pihlstrom

30 · D. Moncada

FK Crvena Zvezda

5-4-1

1 Matheus

37 V. Lucic

60 M. Gashtarov

45 S. Gudelj

3 Y. Nakayama

23 M. Ristic

21 T. Elsnik

33 R. Krunic

20 T. Handel

22 V. Kostov

9 B. Dieng

Coach · Albert Riera

Substitutes

50 · S. Radanovic

77 · I. Gutesa

27 · M. Strika

13 · M. Veljkovic

30 · F. Tebo Uchenna

19 · Kim Ye-geon

70 · M. Cham

6 · M. Bajo

7 · M. Arnautovic

8 · K. Balov

55 · D. Saric

Our number · fk crvena zvezda winFirst published 9 Oct 07:15 · updated 13 Oct 05:52 · locked at kick-off

39% The market32%

Us39%

~~Market~~32%

We make FK Crvena Zvezda a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 32%. We are 7 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.5.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · FC Lugano v FK Crvena Zvezda~~1.38 – 1.48

~~Table places · points 0 v 0~~24 v 25

~~The market · FK Crvena Zvezda win~~32% · ours 39%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · FK Crvena Zvezda win The market, margin stripped

Published at 40%, 39% now. The market has gone from 40% to 32% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
FC Lugano win	35%	41%	−6
Draw	26%	26%	0
FK Crvena Zvezda win	39%	32%	+7
Over 2.5 goals	54%	56%	−2
Both teams to score	58%	61%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	78%	79%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	32%	35%	−3
FC Lugano or draw	61%	68%	−7
FC Lugano clean sheet	23%	–	–
FK Crvena Zvezda clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.1%

0123450 6.2 8.1 6.3 3.1 1 7.6 12.1 8.7 4.3 2 5.5 8.1 5.9 2.9 3 2.5 3.7 2.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+FC Lugano down, FK Crvena Zvezda across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates the clubs of 638 leagues on one scale, from the 406,727 league, cup and continental matches of the last three years up to 15 Oct 2026: each club against its own league, and the leagues against each other through the matches between them, weighting recent matches more.

The two leagues

FC Lugano play in the Swiss Super League, FK Crvena Zvezda in the Serbian Super Liga.

Venue

Allows for home advantage: FC Lugano are at home.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021/22.

What the model expects

1.38 goals for FC Lugano, 1.48 for FK Crvena Zvezda. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 15 Oct 17:30. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · UEFA Europa Conference League this season · since 23 July

FC LUGANO

WWWDWD1–0 · 5–1 · 2–0 · 2–2 · 2–1 · 1–1

FK CRVENA ZVEZDA

No matches in our record yet.

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Mjallby AIF	0	0	0
2	Brighton	0	0	0
3	Monaco	0	0	0
4	FK Jablonec	0	0	0
5	Gent	0	0	0
6	St. Truiden	0	0	0
7	SC Freiburg	0	0	0
8	Atalanta	0	0	0
9	Ajax	0	0	0
10	Twente	0	0	0
11	Getafe	0	0	0
12	KuPS	0	0	0
13	CSKA Sofia	0	0	0
14	HNK Hajduk Split	0	0	0
15	Pafos	0	0	0
16	Aarhus	0	0	0
17	FC Copenhagen	0	0	0
18	FC Midtjylland	0	0	0
19	FC Nordsjaelland	0	0	0
20	Panathinaikos	0	0	0
21	Brann	0	0	0
22	SC Braga	0	0	0
23	Heart Of Midlothian	0	0	0
24	FC Lugano	0	0	0
25	FK Crvena Zvezda	0	0	0
26	FC Thun	0	0	0
27	Trabzonspor	0	0	0
28	Borac Banja Luka	0	0	0
29	Kairat Almaty	0	0	0
30	Egnatia Rrogozhinë	0	0	0
31	Inter Club d'Escaldes	0	0	0
32	Kauno Žalgiris	0	0	0
33	Universitatea Craiova	0	0	0
34	FC Iberia 1999	0	0	0
35	Lincoln Red Imps FC	0	0	0
36	Riga	0	0	0