FC Iberia 1999 v Mjallby AIF prediction · UEFA Europa Conference League

Full timeGraded 22 Oct 20:28

FC Iberia 1999 1–1 Mjallby AIF MJALLBY AIF WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Mjallby AIF win~~66%

~~The market said~~40%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~1.069

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.771

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 28 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Mjallby AIF win at 66%.
1′Much as we predicted: Mjallby AIF was 66% before kick-off and our model makes it 66% now. 0–0 · 12–22–66
1′KICK-OFF FC Iberia 1999 v Mjallby AIF
12′🟨 YELLOW · 12' Lucas Cafe · FC Iberia 1999
32′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 32' Mjallby AIF win: 66% at kick-off, 56% now
36′We said Mjallby AIF at 66%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 54%. 0–0 · 13–32–54
45′SECOND HALF FC Iberia 1999 0–0 Mjallby AIF
46′We said Mjallby AIF at 66%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 49%. 0–0 · 13–38–49
46′🟨 YELLOW · 45+1' N. Dadiani · FC Iberia 1999
46′HALF-TIME FC Iberia 1999 0–0 Mjallby AIF
46′🟨 YELLOW · 45+1' V. Gustafson · Mjallby AIF
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 51' Mjallby AIF win: 66% at kick-off, 46% now
54′We said Mjallby AIF at 66%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 44%. 0–0 · 12–43–44
54′We said Mjallby AIF at 66%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 15%. 1–0 · 56–30–15
54′⚽ GOAL · 54' FC Iberia 1999 1–0 Mjallby AIF
54′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 54' Mjallby AIF win: 66% at kick-off, 15% now
54′THE CALL SWINGS · 54' FC Iberia 1999 win is now our likeliest result at 56% (was Mjallby AIF win 44%)
55′We said Mjallby AIF at 66%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 1–0 · 56–30–14
56′J. Jinjolava scores for FC Iberia 1999 on 55′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 57–30–13
62′🟨 YELLOW · 60' J. Jinjolava · FC Iberia 1999
63′SUBSTITUTION · 61' FC Iberia 1999 · On: J. Tiboue · Off: Lucas Cafe
64′We said Mjallby AIF at 66%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 1–0 · 63–28–9
64′🟨 YELLOW · 64' J. Gustavsson · Mjallby AIF
66′13 shots for Mjallby AIF, 7 the other way, and they still trail 1–0. 1–0 · 65–27–8
66′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Mjallby AIF · On: M. Nielsen · Off: V. Granath
66′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Mjallby AIF · On: M. Enggaard · Off: V. Gustafson
70′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 70' Mjallby AIF win: 66% at kick-off, 6% now
74′We said Mjallby AIF at 66%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 1–0 · 74–22–4
74′SUBSTITUTION · 73' FC Iberia 1999 · On: G. Kutsia · Off: Z. Natchkebia
77′17 shots for Mjallby AIF, 7 the other way, and they still trail 1–0. 1–0 · 78–19–3
80′🟨 YELLOW · 80' G. Kobuladze · FC Iberia 1999
82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' FC Iberia 1999 · On: I. Alhassan · Off: A. Dzagania
82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' FC Iberia 1999 · On: A. Bartishvili · Off: N. Dadiani
88′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Mjallby AIF · On: L. Tidstrand · Off: A. Samuelsen Corrected
88′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Mjallby AIF · On: T. Pettersson · Off: T. Miettinen Corrected
88′⚽ GOAL · 88' FC Iberia 1999 1–1 Mjallby AIF
88′THE CALL SWINGS · 88' Draw is now our likeliest result at 89% (was FC Iberia 1999 win 92%)
90′89′: T. Pettersson on the scoresheet for Mjallby AIF, making it 1–1. 1–1 · 2–92–6
94′🟨 YELLOW · 90+4' M. Nielsen · Mjallby AIF
95′Full time, 1–1. We called Mjallby AIF at 66% — wrong, and it goes on the record that way. 1–1 · 0–100–0
95′🟨 YELLOW · 90+3' B. Kardava · FC Iberia 1999
FTFULL TIME FC Iberia 1999 1–1 Mjallby AIF
FTFC Iberia 1999 1–1 Mjallby AIF · Mjallby AIF win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 0–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Mjallby AIF are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: FC Iberia 1999 12%, draw 21%, Mjallby AIF 66%. Over 2.5 goals 49%, both teams to score 43%.

The AI’s read on FC Iberia 1999 v Mjallby AIFBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 16 Oct 00:00 · locked at kick-off

FC Iberia 1999 win12%

Draw21%

Mjallby AIF win66%

Kick-offTHU 22 OCT · 17:45

RoundLeague stage · matchday 2

VenueMikheil Meskhi Stadium

Line-ups

FC Iberia 1999

4-4-1-1

Mjallby AIF

5-4-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

FC Iberia 1999

Mjallby AIF

3Days since last match4

Last match: 19 Oct · Erovnuli Liga

Last match: 18 Oct · Allsvenskan

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Mjallby AIF	1	+2	3
34	FC Iberia 1999	1	−2	0

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

FC Iberia 1999

4-4-1-1

31 G. Makaridze

40 G. Kobuladze

25 A. Amisulashvili

4 V. Selimovic

5 J. Jinjolava

18 Lucas Cafe

6 N. Dadiani

8 B. Kardava

10 Z. Natchkebia

19 N. Sikharulashvili

9 A. Dzagania

Coach · Levan Korghalidze

Substitutes

1 · T. Megrelishvili

16 · R. Kurtanidze

33 · J. Tiboue

3 · P. Cancar

30 · N. Bochorishvili

27 · G. Kutsia

14 · I. Alhassan

23 · E. Kuliyev

29 · L. Chikhradze

7 · D. Kvartskhava

11 · A. Bartishvili

17 · S. Ende

Mjallby AIF

5-4-1

35 A. Lundin

14 V. Granath

33 T. Miettinen

4 A. Noren

5 A. Iqbal

26 I. Hoffmann

29 O. Lindberg

22 J. Gustavsson

7 V. Gustafson

23 A. Samuelsen

18 J. Bergstrom

Coach · Andreas Brannstrom

Substitutes

13 · R. Wallinder

1 · S. Hansen

24 · T. Pettersson

3 · M. Agnarsson

2 · L. Svanberg

25 · M. Nielsen

6 · M. Enggaard

39 · R. Arrhenius

27 · L. Tidstrand

10 · J. Kjaer

Our number · mjallby aif winFirst published 16 Oct 00:00 · updated 20 Oct 00:18 · locked at kick-off

66% The market40%

Us66%

~~Market~~40%

We make Mjallby AIF a 66% chance to win. The market has them at 40%. We are 26 points more confident than the market. The model expects 0.7–1.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · FC Iberia 1999 v Mjallby AIF~~0.70 – 1.93

~~Form · UEFA Europa Conference League this season · since 15 Oct~~W0 D0 L1 · W1 D0 L0

~~Table places · points 0 v 3~~34 v 5

~~The market · Mjallby AIF win~~40% · ours 66%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Mjallby AIF win The market, margin stripped

Published at 67%, 66% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 40% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
FC Iberia 1999 win	12%	31%	−19
Draw	21%	28%	−7
Mjallby AIF win	66%	40%	+26
Over 2.5 goals	49%	50%	−1
Both teams to score	43%	55%	−12
Over 1.5 goals	74%	73%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	27%	29%	−2
FC Iberia 1999 or draw	34%	60%	−26
FC Iberia 1999 clean sheet	15%	–	–
Mjallby AIF clean sheet	50%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 13.6%

0123450 7.6 13.6 13.4 8.6 4.1 1 4.7 10.1 9.4 6.0 2.9 2 3.4 3.3 2.1 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+FC Iberia 1999 down, Mjallby AIF across0–5 goals a side shown (98.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates the clubs of 637 leagues on one scale, from the 408,373 league, cup and continental matches of the last three years up to 21 Oct 2026: each club against its own league, and the leagues against each other through the matches between them, weighting recent matches more.

The two leagues

FC Iberia 1999 play in Erovnuli Liga, Mjallby AIF in Allsvenskan.

Venue

Allows for home advantage: FC Iberia 1999 are at home.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021.

What the model expects

0.70 goals for FC Iberia 1999, 1.93 for Mjallby AIF. Most likely score 0–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 22 Oct 17:20. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · UEFA Europa Conference League this season · since 15 Oct

FC IBERIA 1999

L0–2

MJALLBY AIF

W2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Brighton	1	+4	3
2	FC Copenhagen	1	+3	3
3	Trabzonspor	1	+2	3
4	Atalanta	1	+2	3
5	Mjallby AIF	1	+2	3
6	St. Truiden	1	+2	3
7	SC Freiburg	1	+1	3
8	FC Lugano	1	+1	3
9	Monaco	1	+1	3
10	HNK Hajduk Split	1	+1	3
11	Panathinaikos	1	+1	3
12	Brann	1	+1	3
13	Gent	1	+1	3
14	Twente	1	+1	3
15	Getafe	1	0	1
16	FC Midtjylland	1	0	1
17	FC Nordsjaelland	1	0	1
18	Kairat Almaty	1	0	1
19	Heart Of Midlothian	1	0	1
20	Egnatia Rrogozhinë	1	0	1
21	Universitatea Craiova	1	0	1
22	Riga	1	0	1
23	FK Jablonec	1	−1	0
24	FK Crvena Zvezda	1	−1	0
25	Ajax	1	−1	0
26	Borac Banja Luka	1	−1	0
27	Lincoln Red Imps FC	1	−1	0
28	CSKA Sofia	1	−1	0
29	Aarhus	1	−1	0
30	FC Thun	1	−1	0
31	KuPS	1	−2	0
32	Pafos	1	−2	0
33	Inter Club d'Escaldes	1	−2	0
34	FC Iberia 1999	1	−2	0
35	SC Braga	1	−3	0
36	Kauno Žalgiris	1	−4	0