FC Copenhagen v SC Braga prediction · UEFA Europa Conference League

Full timeGraded 15 Oct 22:30

FC Copenhagen 3–0 SC Braga SC BRAGA WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said SC Braga win~~38%

~~The market said~~29%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.627

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.519

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 23 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said SC Braga win at 38%.
1′Much as we predicted: SC Braga was 38% before kick-off and our model makes it 38% now. 0–0 · 36–26–38
1′KICK-OFF FC Copenhagen v SC Braga
40′THE CALL SWINGS · 40' Draw is now our likeliest result at 37% (was SC Braga win 32%)
45′HALF-TIME FC Copenhagen 0–0 SC Braga
45′SECOND HALF FC Copenhagen 0–0 SC Braga
51′M. Elyounoussi scores for FC Copenhagen on 49′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 71–22–7
51′We said SC Braga at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 7%. 1–0 · 71–22–7
51′⚽ GOAL · 49' FC Copenhagen 1–0 SC Braga · M. Elyounoussi
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 51' SC Braga win: 38% at kick-off, 7% now
51′THE CALL SWINGS · 51' FC Copenhagen win is now our likeliest result at 71% (was Draw 22%)
61′SUBSTITUTION · 60' SC Braga · On: Gabriel Silva · Off: D. Huseinbasic
61′SUBSTITUTION · 60' SC Braga · On: P. Victor · Off: J. Wind
63′SUBSTITUTION · 61' FC Copenhagen · On: A. Cornelius · Off: V. Dadason
63′SUBSTITUTION · 62' FC Copenhagen · On: M. Nasnas · Off: M. Elyounoussi
64′We said SC Braga at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 1–0 · 76–20–4
65′R. Horta scores for SC Braga on 64′. 1–0 · 77–19–4
67′GOAL DISALLOWED · 63' R. Horta · SC Braga
71′SUBSTITUTION · 70' FC Copenhagen · On: R. Huescas · Off: Robert
72′SUBSTITUTION · 72' FC Copenhagen · On: T. Delaney · Off: A. Kral
72′🟨 YELLOW · 72' A. Markgraf · FC Copenhagen
76′SUBSTITUTION · 76' SC Braga · On: V. Gomez · Off: Sergio Barcia
76′SUBSTITUTION · 75' SC Braga · On: J. Milosevic · Off: J. Moutinho
80′A goal for FC Copenhagen on 79′. 1–0 · 88–11–1
80′Goals are coming at about the 2.7 we expected. 2–0 · 99–1–0
80′⚽ GOAL · 79' FC Copenhagen 2–0 SC Braga · A. Cornelius
85′SUBSTITUTION · 84' FC Copenhagen · On: H. Nemeth · Off: W. Clem
85′SUBSTITUTION · 85' SC Braga · On: M. Dorgeles · Off: Travassos
86′🟨 YELLOW · 85' H. Nemeth · FC Copenhagen
87′FC Copenhagen find the net on 86′. 2–0 · 100–0–0
87′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.7 across ninety minutes. 3–0 · 100–0–0
87′⚽ GOAL · 86' FC Copenhagen 3–0 SC Braga · A. Cornelius
FTFULL TIME FC Copenhagen 3–0 SC Braga
FTFC Copenhagen 3–0 SC Braga · SC Braga win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with SC Braga just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: FC Copenhagen 36%, draw 27%, SC Braga 38%. Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 55%.

The AI’s read on FC Copenhagen v SC BragaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 9 Oct 07:15 · locked at kick-off

FC Copenhagen win36%

Draw27%

SC Braga win38%

Kick-offTHU 15 OCT · 20:00

RoundLeague stage · matchday 1

VenueParken Stadium

RefereeJ. Kooij

Line-ups

FC Copenhagen

4-4-1-1

SC Braga

3-4-1-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

FC Copenhagen

SC Braga

4Days since last match6

Last match: 11 Oct · the Danish Superliga

Last match: 9 Oct · Primeira Liga

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
17	FC Copenhagen	0	0	0
22	SC Braga	0	0	0

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

FC Copenhagen

4-4-1-1

1 D. Ramaj

20 J. Suzuki

2 F. Beijmo

6 A. Markgraf

24 B. Meling

12 T. Maseko

33 A. Kral

36 W. Clem

16 Robert

10 M. Elyounoussi

39 V. Dadason

Coach · Bo Svensson

Substitutes

31 · R. A. Runarsson

51 · T. Breum-Harild

4 · A. Sorensen

15 · M. Lopez

13 · R. Huescas

27 · T. Delaney

28 · H. Nemeth

34 · M. Nasnas

45 · G. Olsen

14 · A. Cornelius

7 · M. Carrizo

44 · G. Vianney Ndjee

SC Braga

3-4-1-2

31 Bernardo

14 G. Lagerbielke

22 Sergio Barcia

26 B. Arrey-Mbi

7 Travassos

8 J. Moutinho

29 Gorby

21 R. Horta

34 D. E. Tiknaz

23 D. Huseinbasic

19 J. Wind

Coach · Carlos Vicens

Substitutes

12 · T. Sa

44 · A. Bajrami

2 · V. Gomez

37 · A. Barisic

6 · Vitor Carvalho

50 · D. Rodrigues

20 · M. Dorgeles

11 · Gabriel Silva

16 · T. Marques

10 · P. Victor

9 · F. Navarro

17 · J. Milosevic

Our number · sc braga winFirst published 9 Oct 07:15 · updated 15 Oct 05:04 · locked at kick-off

38% The market29%

Us38%

~~Market~~29%

We make SC Braga a 38% chance to win. The market has them at 29%. We are 9 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · FC Copenhagen v SC Braga~~1.32 – 1.36

~~Form · UEFA Europa Conference League this season · since 22 July~~W4 D2 L0 · W4 D2 L0

~~Table places · points 0 v 0~~17 v 22

~~The market · SC Braga win~~29% · ours 38%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · SC Braga win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 32% to 29% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
FC Copenhagen win	36%	41%	−5
Draw	27%	30%	−3
SC Braga win	38%	29%	+9
Over 2.5 goals	50%	46%	+4
Both teams to score	55%	52%	+3
Over 1.5 goals	75%	70%	+5
Over 3.5 goals	28%	26%	+2
FC Copenhagen or draw	62%	71%	−9
FC Copenhagen clean sheet	26%	–	–
SC Braga clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.7%

0123450 7.2 8.9 6.3 2.9 1 8.6 12.7 8.4 3.8 2 6.0 8.1 5.5 2.5 3 2.6 3.6 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+FC Copenhagen down, SC Braga across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates the clubs of 638 leagues on one scale, from the 406,727 league, cup and continental matches of the last three years up to 15 Oct 2026: each club against its own league, and the leagues against each other through the matches between them, weighting recent matches more.

The two leagues

FC Copenhagen play in the Danish Superliga, SC Braga in Primeira Liga.

Venue

Allows for home advantage: FC Copenhagen are at home.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021/22.

What the model expects

1.32 goals for FC Copenhagen, 1.36 for SC Braga. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 15 Oct 19:30. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · UEFA Europa Conference League this season · since 22 July

FC COPENHAGEN

DWWWDW3–3 · 2–1 · 3–0 · 5–1 · 0–0 · 4–1

SC BRAGA

WWWDWD1–0 · 4–0 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 2–0 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Mjallby AIF	0	0	0
2	Brighton	0	0	0
3	Monaco	0	0	0
4	FK Jablonec	0	0	0
5	Gent	0	0	0
6	St. Truiden	0	0	0
7	SC Freiburg	0	0	0
8	Atalanta	0	0	0
9	Ajax	0	0	0
10	Twente	0	0	0
11	Getafe	0	0	0
12	KuPS	0	0	0
13	CSKA Sofia	0	0	0
14	HNK Hajduk Split	0	0	0
15	Pafos	0	0	0
16	Aarhus	0	0	0
17	FC Copenhagen	0	0	0
18	FC Midtjylland	0	0	0
19	FC Nordsjaelland	0	0	0
20	Panathinaikos	0	0	0
21	Brann	0	0	0
22	SC Braga	0	0	0
23	Heart Of Midlothian	0	0	0
24	FC Lugano	0	0	0
25	FK Crvena Zvezda	0	0	0
26	FC Thun	0	0	0
27	Trabzonspor	0	0	0
28	Borac Banja Luka	0	0	0
29	Kairat Almaty	0	0	0
30	Egnatia Rrogozhinë	0	0	0
31	Inter Club d'Escaldes	0	0	0
32	Kauno Žalgiris	0	0	0
33	Universitatea Craiova	0	0	0
34	FC Iberia 1999	0	0	0
35	Lincoln Red Imps FC	0	0	0
36	Riga	0	0	0