Egnatia Rrogozhinë v FC Midtjylland prediction · UEFA Europa Conference League

Full timeGraded 15 Oct 20:30

Egnatia Rrogozhinë 1–1 FC Midtjylland FC MIDTJYLLAND WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–2 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said FC Midtjylland win~~66%

~~The market said~~62%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~1.079

~~The market’s Brier score~~1.015

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay16 notes · 28 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said FC Midtjylland win at 66%.
1′Much as we predicted: FC Midtjylland was 66% before kick-off and our model makes it 66% now. 0–0 · 14–20–66
1′KICK-OFF Egnatia Rrogozhinë v FC Midtjylland
27′26′: I. Gruda on the scoresheet for Egnatia Rrogozhinë. 0–0 · 15–27–58
27′We said FC Midtjylland at 66%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 30%. 1–0 · 42–28–30
27′⚽ GOAL · 26' Egnatia Rrogozhinë 1–0 FC Midtjylland · I. Gruda (assist A. Kryeziu)
27′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 27' FC Midtjylland win: 66% at kick-off, 30% now
27′THE CALL SWINGS · 27' Egnatia Rrogozhinë win is now our likeliest result at 42% (was FC Midtjylland win 30%)
28′We said FC Midtjylland at 66%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 1–0 · 42–28–29
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.9 we expected. 1–0 · 43–29–28
33′⚽ GOAL · 33' Egnatia Rrogozhinë 1–1 FC Midtjylland
33′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 33' FC Midtjylland win: 66% at kick-off, 56% now
33′THE CALL SWINGS · 33' FC Midtjylland win is now our likeliest result at 56% (was Egnatia Rrogozhinë win 15%)
34′FC Midtjylland level it on 33′ through Cho Gue-Sung. 1–1. 1–1 · 15–30–56
37′We said FC Midtjylland at 66%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 54%. 1–1 · 15–31–54
40′FC Midtjylland find the net on 40′. 1–1 · 15–32–53
41′GOAL DISALLOWED · 40' Cho Gue-Sung · FC Midtjylland
45′HALF-TIME Egnatia Rrogozhinë 1–1 FC Midtjylland
45′SECOND HALF Egnatia Rrogozhinë 1–1 FC Midtjylland
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' FC Midtjylland · On: K. Watjen · Off: Hong Hyun-Seok
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' FC Midtjylland · On: F. Etim · Off: Cho Gue-Sung
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' FC Midtjylland · On: S. Iheanacho · Off: D. Martinez
47′We said FC Midtjylland at 66%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 49%. 1–1 · 15–36–49
52′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 52' FC Midtjylland win: 66% at kick-off, 46% now
56′We said FC Midtjylland at 66%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 44%. 1–1 · 14–42–44
56′SUBSTITUTION · 56' FC Midtjylland · On: S. Johannesen · Off: M. Rajovic
60′THE CALL SWINGS · 60' Draw is now our likeliest result at 46% (was FC Midtjylland win 41%)
62′We said FC Midtjylland at 66%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 39%. 1–1 · 13–48–39
66′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Egnatia Rrogozhinë · On: G. Smajli · Off: G. Jaime
66′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 66' FC Midtjylland win: 66% at kick-off, 36% now
66′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Egnatia Rrogozhinë · On: I. Diabate · Off: A. Albanese
72′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Egnatia Rrogozhinë · On: J. Montenegro · Off: D. Adjessa
75′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 75' FC Midtjylland win: 66% at kick-off, 26% now
76′We said FC Midtjylland at 66%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 9–67–24
77′SUBSTITUTION · 77' FC Midtjylland · On: M. Uhre · Off: D. Castillo
80′We said FC Midtjylland at 66%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 7–74–19
81′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Egnatia Rrogozhinë · On: Fernando Medeiros · Off: I. Gruda
81′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Egnatia Rrogozhinë · On: N. Ajetovikj · Off: K. Loukili
82′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 82' FC Midtjylland win: 66% at kick-off, 16% now
83′We said FC Midtjylland at 66%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 1–1 · 5–81–14
86′🟨 YELLOW · 86' I. Diabate · Egnatia Rrogozhinë
87′We said FC Midtjylland at 66%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 1–1 · 4–87–9
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90' FC Midtjylland win: 66% at kick-off, 6% now
92′We said FC Midtjylland at 66%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 2–94–4
FTFULL TIME Egnatia Rrogozhinë 1–1 FC Midtjylland
FTEgnatia Rrogozhinë 1–1 FC Midtjylland · FC Midtjylland win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 0–2 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

FC Midtjylland are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Egnatia Rrogozhinë 14%, draw 21%, FC Midtjylland 66%. Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 49%.

The AI’s read on Egnatia Rrogozhinë v FC MidtjyllandBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 9 Oct 07:15 · locked at kick-off

Egnatia Rrogozhinë win14%

Draw21%

FC Midtjylland win66%

Kick-offTHU 15 OCT · 17:45

RoundLeague stage · matchday 1

VenueArena Kombetare

RefereeS. Ebner

Line-ups

Egnatia Rrogozhinë

4-3-3

FC Midtjylland

3-5-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Egnatia Rrogozhinë

FC Midtjylland

4Days since last match4

Last match: 11 Oct · Superliga (Albania)

Last match: 11 Oct · the Danish Superliga

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
18	FC Midtjylland	0	0	0
30	Egnatia Rrogozhinë	0	0	0

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Egnatia Rrogozhinë

4-3-3

98 M. Dajsinani

22 G. Jaime

33 E. Bitri

28 E. Sota

29 A. Yago

17 A. Kryeziu

6 A. Aleksi

20 K. Loukili

77 I. Gruda

2 D. Adjessa

10 A. Albanese

Coach · Nevil Dede

Substitutes

12 · B. Puja

1 · L. Tandilashvili

55 · G. Smajli

24 · N. Ajetovikj

16 · E. Ndreca

4 · Z. Aliyev

13 · A. Kacbufi

7 · Fernando Medeiros

8 · I. Diabate

99 · J. Montenegro

FC Midtjylland

3-5-2

25 N. Bakker

5 R. Kristensen

4 O. Diao

22 M. B. Sorensen

98 D. Martinez

20 Hong Hyun-Seok

8 P. Billing

21 D. Castillo

38 J. Emefile

10 Cho Gue-Sung

9 M. Rajovic

Coach · Mike Tullberg

Substitutes

30 · O. Ejeheri

60 · M. Ugboh

15 · D. Beni

34 · A. Ndiaye

29 · K. Watjen

27 · S. Johannesen

19 · P. Bravo

18 · S. Iheanacho

17 · M. Uhre

90 · F. Etim

Our number · fc midtjylland winFirst published 9 Oct 07:15 · locked at kick-off

66% The market62%

Us66%

~~Market~~62%

We make FC Midtjylland a 66% chance to win. The market has them at 62%. We are 4 points more confident than the market. The model expects 0.8–2.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Egnatia Rrogozhinë v FC Midtjylland~~0.82 – 2.05

~~Table places · points 0 v 0~~30 v 18

~~The market · FC Midtjylland win~~62% · ours 66%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · FC Midtjylland win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 61% to 62% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Egnatia Rrogozhinë win	14%	16%	−2
Draw	21%	22%	−1
FC Midtjylland win	66%	62%	+4
Over 2.5 goals	55%	55%	0
Both teams to score	49%	51%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	78%	77%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	32%	34%	−2
Egnatia Rrogozhinë or draw	34%	38%	−4
Egnatia Rrogozhinë clean sheet	13%	–	–
FC Midtjylland clean sheet	44%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–2 at 11.9%

0123450 6.0 11.3 11.9 8.1 4.2 1 4.3 9.8 9.8 6.7 3.4 2 3.9 4.0 2.7 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Egnatia Rrogozhinë down, FC Midtjylland across0–5 goals a side shown (98.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates the clubs of 638 leagues on one scale, from the 406,727 league, cup and continental matches of the last three years up to 15 Oct 2026: each club against its own league, and the leagues against each other through the matches between them, weighting recent matches more.

The two leagues

Egnatia Rrogozhinë play in Superliga (Albania), FC Midtjylland in the Danish Superliga.

Venue

Allows for home advantage: Egnatia Rrogozhinë are at home.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021/22.

What the model expects

0.82 goals for Egnatia Rrogozhinë, 2.05 for FC Midtjylland. Most likely score 0–2.

Line-ups

Confirmed 15 Oct 17:30. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · UEFA Europa Conference League this season · since 6 Aug

EGNATIA RROGOZHINË

No matches in our record yet.

FC MIDTJYLLAND

WWWW2–0 · 3–2 · 2–0 · 4–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Mjallby AIF	0	0	0
2	Brighton	0	0	0
3	Monaco	0	0	0
4	FK Jablonec	0	0	0
5	Gent	0	0	0
6	St. Truiden	0	0	0
7	SC Freiburg	0	0	0
8	Atalanta	0	0	0
9	Ajax	0	0	0
10	Twente	0	0	0
11	Getafe	0	0	0
12	KuPS	0	0	0
13	CSKA Sofia	0	0	0
14	HNK Hajduk Split	0	0	0
15	Pafos	0	0	0
16	Aarhus	0	0	0
17	FC Copenhagen	0	0	0
18	FC Midtjylland	0	0	0
19	FC Nordsjaelland	0	0	0
20	Panathinaikos	0	0	0
21	Brann	0	0	0
22	SC Braga	0	0	0
23	Heart Of Midlothian	0	0	0
24	FC Lugano	0	0	0
25	FK Crvena Zvezda	0	0	0
26	FC Thun	0	0	0
27	Trabzonspor	0	0	0
28	Borac Banja Luka	0	0	0
29	Kairat Almaty	0	0	0
30	Egnatia Rrogozhinë	0	0	0
31	Inter Club d'Escaldes	0	0	0
32	Kauno Žalgiris	0	0	0
33	Universitatea Craiova	0	0	0
34	FC Iberia 1999	0	0	0
35	Lincoln Red Imps FC	0	0	0
36	Riga	0	0	0