CSKA Sofia v Monaco prediction · UEFA Europa Conference League

Full timeGraded 15 Oct 20:30

CSKA Sofia 1–2 Monaco MONACO WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–2 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Monaco win~~70%

~~The market said~~64%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.141

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.199

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 23 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Monaco win at 70%.
1′KICK-OFF CSKA Sofia v Monaco
2′Little has changed for our model: Monaco 70% before kick-off, 69% now. 0–0 · 12–18–69
3′We said Monaco at 70% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 88%. 0–1 · 4–9–88
3′⚽ GOAL · 3' CSKA Sofia 0–1 Monaco
3′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 3' Monaco win: 70% at kick-off, 88% now
4′3′: P. Brunner on the scoresheet for Monaco, making it 0–1. 0–1 · 4–9–88
30′The goal count is tracking the 3.1 we expected. 0–1 · 3–10–86
44′44′: A. Fati on the scoresheet for Monaco. 0–1 · 3–11–86
45′We said Monaco at 70% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 98%. 0–2 · 0–2–98
45′⚽ GOAL · 44' CSKA Sofia 0–2 Monaco · A. Fati (assist P. Brunner)
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Monaco win: 70% at kick-off, 98% now
45′HALF-TIME CSKA Sofia 0–2 Monaco
45′SECOND HALF CSKA Sofia 0–2 Monaco
46′Monaco ahead on 43′ through A. Fati. 0–2. 0–2 · 0–2–98
51′🟨 YELLOW · 51' S. Sensi · CSKA Sofia
59′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Monaco · On: A. Golovin · Off: T. Minamino
59′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Monaco · On: D. Zakaria · Off: L. Camara
59′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Monaco · On: Nazinho · Off: M. Salisu
64′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Monaco · On: M. Abline · Off: S. Idumbo
66′CSKA Sofia have had 15 attempts to 8 and it is still 0–2. 0–2 · 0–1–99
70′🟨 YELLOW · 70' M. Ebong · CSKA Sofia
73′SUBSTITUTION · 73' CSKA Sofia · On: C. Itu · Off: Leo Pereira
74′SUBSTITUTION · 74' CSKA Sofia · On: J. Zwarts · Off: L. Godoy
76′A goal for CSKA Sofia on 76′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 1–8–91
76′⚽ GOAL · 76' CSKA Sofia 1–2 Monaco · J. Zwarts
77′We said Monaco at 70% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 92%. 1–2 · 0–8–92
78′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Monaco · On: A. Soubeir · Off: A. Fati
79′CSKA Sofia have had 19 attempts to 10 and it is still 1–2. 1–2 · 0–7–93
81′🟨 YELLOW · 81' E. Diop · Monaco
85′SUBSTITUTION · 84' CSKA Sofia · On: J. Eto'o · Off: M. Ebong
85′SUBSTITUTION · 85' CSKA Sofia · On: I. Solet · Off: I. Pittas
85′SUBSTITUTION · 85' CSKA Sofia · On: T. Ivanov · Off: D. Almeida
90′1–2 at the end. Our 70% on Monaco comes in. 1–2 · 0–0–100
92′20 shots for CSKA Sofia, 10 the other way, and they still trail 1–2. 1–2 · 0–2–98
96′🟨 YELLOW · 90+6' A. Martino · CSKA Sofia
FTFULL TIME CSKA Sofia 1–2 Monaco
FTCSKA Sofia 1–2 Monaco · Monaco win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 0–2 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Monaco are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: CSKA Sofia 12%, draw 18%, Monaco 70%. Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 51%.

The AI’s read on CSKA Sofia v MonacoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 9 Oct 07:15 · locked at kick-off

CSKA Sofia win12%

Draw18%

Monaco win70%

Kick-offTHU 15 OCT · 17:45

RoundLeague stage · matchday 1

VenueNational Stadium Vasil Levski

RefereeJ. Goncalves

Line-ups

CSKA Sofia

4-1-4-1

Monaco

4-4-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

CSKA Sofia

Monaco

4Days since last match5

Last match: 11 Oct · the Bulgarian First League

Last match: 10 Oct · the French Ligue 1

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Monaco	0	0	0
13	CSKA Sofia	0	0	0

In the news

from the pressAll ›

AS Monaco’s Eric Dier sustains muscle injuryGet French Football News · 15 Oct 08:59 · Monaco Monaco predicted XI v CSKA Sofia: Eric Dier out, Ansu Fati to startGet French Football News · 15 Oct 07:44 · Monaco, CSKA Sofia

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

CSKA Sofia

4-1-4-1

21 F. Lapoukhov

2 Pastor

4 D. Almeida

32 F. Rodriguez

17 A. Martino

6 B. Jordao

28 I. Pittas

7 M. Ebong

8 S. Sensi

38 Leo Pereira

9 L. Godoy

Coach · Markus Gisdol

Substitutes

31 · D. Nikolov

25 · D. Evtimov

19 · A. Yordanov

14 · T. Ivanov

91 · A. Tunchev

94 · I. Solet

30 · P. Panayotov

99 · J. Eto'o

34 · V. Kaymakanov

67 · C. Itu

10 · J. Zwarts

Monaco

4-4-2

1 L. Hradecky

4 J. Teze

72 S. Sane

22 M. Salisu

13 C. Mawissa

18 T. Minamino

8 L. Camara

37 E. Diop

17 S. Idumbo

29 P. Brunner

31 A. Fati

Coach · Luis Filipe

Substitutes

16 · P. Kohn

2 · Vanderson

20 · Nazinho

19 · P. Cabral

46 · A. Soubeir

10 · A. Golovin

6 · D. Zakaria

28 · M. Coulibaly

49 · I. Toure

11 · M. Abline

14 · M. Biereth

7 · M. Detourbet

Our number · monaco winFirst published 9 Oct 07:15 · locked at kick-off

70% The market64%

Us70%

~~Market~~64%

We make Monaco a 70% chance to win. The market has them at 64%. We are 6 points more confident than the market. The model expects 0.8–2.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · CSKA Sofia v Monaco~~0.84 – 2.28

~~Table places · points 0 v 0~~13 v 3

~~The market · Monaco win~~64% · ours 70%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Monaco win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 63% to 64% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
CSKA Sofia win	12%	16%	−4
Draw	18%	21%	−3
Monaco win	70%	64%	+6
Over 2.5 goals	60%	59%	+1
Both teams to score	51%	54%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	82%	80%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	38%	38%	0
CSKA Sofia or draw	30%	36%	−6
CSKA Sofia clean sheet	10%	–	–
Monaco clean sheet	43%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–2 at 11.5%

0123450 4.7 9.8 11.5 8.7 5.0 2.31 3.4 8.7 9.6 7.3 4.2 2 3.6 4.1 3.1 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+CSKA Sofia down, Monaco across0–5 goals a side shown (97.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates the clubs of 638 leagues on one scale, from the 406,727 league, cup and continental matches of the last three years up to 15 Oct 2026: each club against its own league, and the leagues against each other through the matches between them, weighting recent matches more.

The two leagues

CSKA Sofia play in the Bulgarian First League, Monaco in the French Ligue 1.

Venue

Allows for home advantage: CSKA Sofia are at home.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021/22.

What the model expects

0.84 goals for CSKA Sofia, 2.28 for Monaco. Most likely score 0–2.

Line-ups

Confirmed 15 Oct 17:30. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · UEFA Europa Conference League this season · since 20 Aug

CSKA SOFIA

No matches in our record yet.

MONACO

WW3–2 · 4–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Mjallby AIF	0	0	0
2	Brighton	0	0	0
3	Monaco	0	0	0
4	FK Jablonec	0	0	0
5	Gent	0	0	0
6	St. Truiden	0	0	0
7	SC Freiburg	0	0	0
8	Atalanta	0	0	0
9	Ajax	0	0	0
10	Twente	0	0	0
11	Getafe	0	0	0
12	KuPS	0	0	0
13	CSKA Sofia	0	0	0
14	HNK Hajduk Split	0	0	0
15	Pafos	0	0	0
16	Aarhus	0	0	0
17	FC Copenhagen	0	0	0
18	FC Midtjylland	0	0	0
19	FC Nordsjaelland	0	0	0
20	Panathinaikos	0	0	0
21	Brann	0	0	0
22	SC Braga	0	0	0
23	Heart Of Midlothian	0	0	0
24	FC Lugano	0	0	0
25	FK Crvena Zvezda	0	0	0
26	FC Thun	0	0	0
27	Trabzonspor	0	0	0
28	Borac Banja Luka	0	0	0
29	Kairat Almaty	0	0	0
30	Egnatia Rrogozhinë	0	0	0
31	Inter Club d'Escaldes	0	0	0
32	Kauno Žalgiris	0	0	0
33	Universitatea Craiova	0	0	0
34	FC Iberia 1999	0	0	0
35	Lincoln Red Imps FC	0	0	0
36	Riga	0	0	0