Brighton v Kauno Žalgiris prediction · UEFA Europa Conference League

Full timeGraded 15 Oct 22:30

Brighton 4–0 Kauno Žalgiris BRIGHTON WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT4–0 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Brighton win~~97%

~~The market said~~94%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.002

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.006

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 21 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Brighton win at 97%.
1′Much as we predicted: Brighton was 97% before kick-off and our model makes it 96% now. 0–0 · 96–3–1
1′KICK-OFF Brighton v Kauno Žalgiris
14′🟨 YELLOW · 14' F. Ourega · Kauno Žalgiris
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' Brighton win: 97% at kick-off, 87% now
43′41′: G. Rutter on the scoresheet for Brighton. 0–0 · 86–12–2
43′⚽ GOAL · 41' Brighton 1–0 Kauno Žalgiris · G. Rutter
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 43' Brighton win: 97% at kick-off, 98% now
45′J. Hinshelwood scores for Brighton on 45′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 100–0–0
45′HALF-TIME Brighton 2–0 Kauno Žalgiris
45′SECOND HALF Brighton 2–0 Kauno Žalgiris
46′Goals are coming at about the 4.8 we expected. 2–0 · 100–0–0
46′⚽ GOAL · 46' Brighton 2–0 Kauno Žalgiris
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Brighton · On: M. De Cuyper · Off: O. Boscagli
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Brighton · On: L. Vuskovic · Off: L. Dunk
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Kauno Žalgiris · On: L. Krekovic · Off: Leo Ribeiro
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Kauno Žalgiris · On: R. Lekiatas · Off: F. Ourega
54′⚽ GOAL · 54' Brighton 3–0 Kauno Žalgiris
55′53′: G. Rutter on the scoresheet for Brighton, making it 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
59′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Brighton · On: Y. Ayari · Off: P. Gross
59′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Brighton · On: P. David · Off: J. Hinshelwood
60′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Kauno Žalgiris · On: A. Kalik · Off: F. Baldassarra Corrected
60′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Kauno Žalgiris · On: G. Debeljuh · Off: Renan Oliveira
63′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Kauno Žalgiris · On: V. Slivka · Off: A. Benchaib
68′⚽ GOAL · 68' Brighton 4–0 Kauno Žalgiris
69′Brighton ahead on 67′ through M. O'Riley. 4–0. 4–0 · 100–0–0
70′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Brighton · On: Y. Ibrahim · Off: I. Osman
FTFULL TIME Brighton 4–0 Kauno Žalgiris
FTBrighton 4–0 Kauno Žalgiris · Brighton win: right · Over 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 4–0 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Brighton are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Brighton 97%, draw 3%, Kauno Žalgiris 1%. Over 2.5 goals 85%, both teams to score 29%.

The AI’s read on Brighton v Kauno ŽalgirisBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 9 Oct 07:15 · locked at kick-off

Brighton win97%

Draw3%

Kauno Žalgiris win1%

Kick-offTHU 15 OCT · 20:00

RoundLeague stage · matchday 1

VenueAmex Stadium

RefereeM. Redder

Line-ups

Brighton

4-3-3

Kauno Žalgiris

4-1-4-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Brighton

Kauno Žalgiris

5Days since last match4

Last match: 10 Oct · the English Premier League

Last match: 11 Oct · Cup (Lithuania)

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Brighton	0	0	0
32	Kauno Žalgiris	0	0	0

In the news

from the pressAll ›

Tony Bloom must hate Leicester City situation as Brighton action loomsFootball League World · 14 Oct 07:30 · Leicester, Brighton

Why Brighton are the best team in the Premier League right nowSky Sports · 13 Oct 13:30 · Brighton

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Brighton

4-3-3

1 B. Verbruggen

20 Costinha

5 L. Dunk

30 M. Svoboda

21 O. Boscagli

13 P. Gross

35 M. Yalcouye

8 J. Hinshelwood

33 M. O'Riley

10 G. Rutter

15 I. Osman

Coach · Fabian Hurzeler

Substitutes

23 · J. Steele

38 · T. McGill

24 · F. Kadioglu

29 · M. De Cuyper

44 · L. Vuskovic

26 · Y. Ayari

25 · D. Gomez

14 · C. Andres

59 · Y. Ibrahim

50 · S. Nti

19 · C. Kostoulas

12 · P. David

Kauno Žalgiris

4-1-4-1

55 T. Svedkauskas

45 J. Moutachy

3 A. Tolordava

23 A. Hernandez

37 N. Iyobosa Edokpolor

32 F. Baldassarra

70 F. Ourega

7 A. Benchaib

8 Y. Karashima

15 Leo Ribeiro

19 Renan Oliveira

Coach · Eivinas Cerniauskas

Substitutes

22 · D. Mikelionis

77 · R. Lekiatas

33 · M. Konatar

62 · L. I. Kastrati

14 · V. Slivka

17 · I. Fiolic

20 · A. Kalik

10 · G. Sirgedas

27 · G. Debeljuh

9 · L. Krekovic

24 · M. Burba

Our number · brighton winFirst published 9 Oct 07:15 · locked at kick-off

97% The market94%

Us97%

~~Market~~94%

We make Brighton a 97% chance to win. The market has them at 94%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 4.4–0.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Brighton v Kauno Žalgiris~~4.42 – 0.34

~~Table places · points 0 v 0~~2 v 32

~~The market · Brighton win~~94% · ours 97%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Brighton win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 91% to 94% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Brighton win	97%	94%	+3
Draw	3%	4%	−1
Kauno Žalgiris win	1%	2%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	85%	79%	+6
Both teams to score	29%	24%	+5
Over 1.5 goals	95%	91%	+4
Over 3.5 goals	70%	62%	+8
Brighton or draw	99%	98%	+1
Brighton clean sheet	71%	–	–
Kauno Žalgiris clean sheet	1%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 4–0 at 13.6%

0123450 1 3.7 2 8.3 2.9 3 12.3 4.2 4 13.6 4.7 5 12.0 4.1

under 2% 5% 12%+Brighton down, Kauno Žalgiris across0–5 goals a side shown (71.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates the clubs of 638 leagues on one scale, from the 406,727 league, cup and continental matches of the last three years up to 15 Oct 2026: each club against its own league, and the leagues against each other through the matches between them, weighting recent matches more.

The two leagues

Brighton play in the English Premier League, Kauno Žalgiris in A Lyga.

Venue

Allows for home advantage: Brighton are at home.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021/22.

What the model expects

4.42 goals for Brighton, 0.34 for Kauno Žalgiris. Most likely score 4–0.

Line-ups

Confirmed 15 Oct 19:30. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · UEFA Europa Conference League this season · since 20 Aug

BRIGHTON

DW0–0 · 4–0

KAUNO ŽALGIRIS

No matches in our record yet.

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Mjallby AIF	0	0	0
2	Brighton	0	0	0
3	Monaco	0	0	0
4	FK Jablonec	0	0	0
5	Gent	0	0	0
6	St. Truiden	0	0	0
7	SC Freiburg	0	0	0
8	Atalanta	0	0	0
9	Ajax	0	0	0
10	Twente	0	0	0
11	Getafe	0	0	0
12	KuPS	0	0	0
13	CSKA Sofia	0	0	0
14	HNK Hajduk Split	0	0	0
15	Pafos	0	0	0
16	Aarhus	0	0	0
17	FC Copenhagen	0	0	0
18	FC Midtjylland	0	0	0
19	FC Nordsjaelland	0	0	0
20	Panathinaikos	0	0	0
21	Brann	0	0	0
22	SC Braga	0	0	0
23	Heart Of Midlothian	0	0	0
24	FC Lugano	0	0	0
25	FK Crvena Zvezda	0	0	0
26	FC Thun	0	0	0
27	Trabzonspor	0	0	0
28	Borac Banja Luka	0	0	0
29	Kairat Almaty	0	0	0
30	Egnatia Rrogozhinë	0	0	0
31	Inter Club d'Escaldes	0	0	0
32	Kauno Žalgiris	0	0	0
33	Universitatea Craiova	0	0	0
34	FC Iberia 1999	0	0	0
35	Lincoln Red Imps FC	0	0	0
36	Riga	0	0	0