Borac Banja Luka v KuPS prediction · UEFA Europa Conference League

Full timeGraded 22 Oct 23:00

Borac Banja Luka 2–0 KuPS BORAC BANJA LUKA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Borac Banja Luka win~~41%

~~The market said~~54%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.515

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.325

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 21 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Borac Banja Luka win at 41%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Borac Banja Luka 41% before kick-off, 41% now. 0–0 · 41–31–28
1′KICK-OFF Borac Banja Luka v KuPS
18′🟨 YELLOW · 18' L. Juricic · Borac Banja Luka
28′We said Borac Banja Luka at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 74%. 1–0 · 74–19–7
28′⚽ GOAL · 28' Borac Banja Luka 1–0 KuPS
28′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 28' Borac Banja Luka win: 41% at kick-off, 74% now
29′We said Borac Banja Luka at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 1–0 · 75–19–7
30′S. Savic scores for Borac Banja Luka on 29′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 75–19–7
31′The goal count is tracking the 2.1 we expected. 1–0 · 75–19–6
45′SECOND HALF Borac Banja Luka 1–0 KuPS
47′HALF-TIME Borac Banja Luka 1–0 KuPS
49′We said Borac Banja Luka at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 96%. 2–0 · 96–4–1
49′⚽ GOAL · 49' Borac Banja Luka 2–0 KuPS
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 49' Borac Banja Luka win: 41% at kick-off, 96% now
50′50′: M. Deket on the scoresheet for Borac Banja Luka, making it 2–0. 2–0 · 96–3–1
61′SUBSTITUTION · 61' KuPS · On: Jorginho · Off: N. Kujasalo
61′SUBSTITUTION · 61' KuPS · On: B. Armah · Off: A. Aiki
66′SUBSTITUTION · 66' KuPS · On: P. Pennanen · Off: S. Touray
66′SUBSTITUTION · 66' KuPS · On: J. J. Moreno Ciorciari · Off: G. Engvall
71′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Borac Banja Luka · On: S. Ogrinec · Off: A. Roguljic
78′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Borac Banja Luka · On: D. Vukovic · Off: S. Savic
79′We said Borac Banja Luka at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
79′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Borac Banja Luka · On: N. Jaksic · Off: M. Deket
80′🟨 YELLOW · 79' S. Herrera · Borac Banja Luka
80′SUBSTITUTION · 80' KuPS · On: S. Heiskanen · Off: A. Puukko
91′SUBSTITUTION · 90+1' Borac Banja Luka · On: S. Vranjes · Off: L. Juricic
91′SUBSTITUTION · 90+1' Borac Banja Luka · On: V. Rogan · Off: B. Cipetic
93′🟨 YELLOW · 90+1' A. Lotjonen · KuPS
95′2–0 at the end. Our 41% on Borac Banja Luka comes in. 2–0 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Borac Banja Luka 2–0 KuPS
FTBorac Banja Luka 2–0 KuPS · Borac Banja Luka win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Borac Banja Luka are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Borac Banja Luka 41%, draw 31%, KuPS 28%. Over 2.5 goals 34%, both teams to score 42%.

The AI’s read on Borac Banja Luka v KuPSBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 16 Oct 00:00 · locked at kick-off

Borac Banja Luka win41%

Draw31%

KuPS win28%

Kick-offTHU 22 OCT · 20:00

RoundLeague stage · matchday 2

VenueGradski stadion Banja Luka

RefereeI. O. Kristjansson

Line-ups

Borac Banja Luka

4-4-2

KuPS

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Borac Banja Luka

KuPS

7Days since last match4

Last match: 15 Oct · UEFA Europa Conference League

Last match: 18 Oct · Veikkausliiga

2Matches in previous 14 days4

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
26	Borac Banja Luka	1	−1	0
31	KuPS	1	−2	0

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Borac Banja Luka

4-4-2

72 M. Jurkas

4 B. Cipetic

2 B. Meijers

6 S. Sanicanin

16 S. Herrera

44 A. Roguljic

18 M. Jojic

12 A. Hiros

77 S. Savic

89 M. Deket

7 L. Juricic

Coach · Vinko Marinovic

Substitutes

1 · D. Siskovski

30 · N. Jaksic

24 · J. Carolina

20 · E. Ridjan

19 · V. Rogan

3 · A. Pascual

98 · S. Ogrinec

23 · S. Vranjes

22 · I. Kukavica

99 · D. Romera

10 · D. Vukovic

47 · A. Milak

KuPS

4-2-3-1

1 J. Kreidl

29 A. Puukko

28 B. Magassa

23 A. Lotjonen

13 N. Kujasalo

22 S. Touray

34 J. Eskesen

15 A. Aiki

16 T. Jyry

9 G. Engvall

20 P. Parzyszek

Coach · Miika Nuutinen

Substitutes

12 · H. Riihimaki

6 · S. Savolainen

33 · T. Hamalainen

4 · K. Adams

30 · Jorginho

25 · C. Antwi

3 · S. Heiskanen

8 · P. Pennanen

10 · V. R. Gasc

11 · J. J. Moreno Ciorciari

21 · J. Luyeye-Lutumba

24 · B. Armah

Our number · borac banja luka winFirst published 16 Oct 00:00 · updated 20 Oct 04:07 · locked at kick-off

41% The market54%

Us41%

~~Market~~54%

We make Borac Banja Luka a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 54%. We are 13 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Borac Banja Luka v KuPS~~1.17 – 0.91

~~Form · last six in UEFA Europa Conference League this season · since 30 July~~W3 D1 L2 · W1 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 0 v 0~~26 v 31

~~The market · Borac Banja Luka win~~54% · ours 41%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Borac Banja Luka win The market, margin stripped

Published at 42%, 41% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 54% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Borac Banja Luka win	41%	54%	−13
Draw	31%	26%	+5
KuPS win	28%	21%	+7
Over 2.5 goals	34%	49%	−15
Both teams to score	42%	51%	−9
Over 1.5 goals	62%	72%	−10
Over 3.5 goals	16%	28%	−12
Borac Banja Luka or draw	72%	79%	−7
Borac Banja Luka clean sheet	40%	–	–
KuPS clean sheet	31%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 14.2%

0123450 13.0 10.9 5.1 1 14.2 13.7 6.0 2 8.6 7.8 3.5 3 3.3 3.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Borac Banja Luka down, KuPS across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates the clubs of 637 leagues on one scale, from the 408,373 league, cup and continental matches of the last three years up to 21 Oct 2026: each club against its own league, and the leagues against each other through the matches between them, weighting recent matches more.

The two leagues

Borac Banja Luka play in Premijer Liga, KuPS in Veikkausliiga.

Venue

Allows for home advantage: Borac Banja Luka are at home.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021/22.

What the model expects

1.17 goals for Borac Banja Luka, 0.91 for KuPS. Most likely score 1–0.

Line-ups

Confirmed 22 Oct 19:30. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in UEFA Europa Conference League this season · since 30 July

BORAC BANJA LUKA

DWLWWL3–3 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 3–1 · 3–1 · 1–2

KUPS

DWL1–1 · 1–0 · 2–4

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Panathinaikos	2	+5	6
2	Brighton	1	+4	3
3	FC Copenhagen	1	+3	3
4	Trabzonspor	1	+2	3
5	Atalanta	1	+2	3
6	Mjallby AIF	1	+2	3
7	St. Truiden	1	+2	3
8	SC Freiburg	1	+1	3
9	FC Lugano	1	+1	3
10	Monaco	1	+1	3
11	HNK Hajduk Split	1	+1	3
12	Brann	1	+1	3
13	Gent	1	+1	3
14	Twente	1	+1	3
15	Getafe	1	0	1
16	FC Midtjylland	1	0	1
17	FC Nordsjaelland	1	0	1
18	Heart Of Midlothian	1	0	1
19	Egnatia Rrogozhinë	1	0	1
20	Universitatea Craiova	1	0	1
21	Riga	1	0	1
22	Kairat Almaty	2	−4	1
23	FK Jablonec	1	−1	0
24	FK Crvena Zvezda	1	−1	0
25	Ajax	1	−1	0
26	Borac Banja Luka	1	−1	0
27	Lincoln Red Imps FC	1	−1	0
28	CSKA Sofia	1	−1	0
29	Aarhus	1	−1	0
30	FC Thun	1	−1	0
31	KuPS	1	−2	0
32	Pafos	1	−2	0
33	Inter Club d'Escaldes	1	−2	0
34	FC Iberia 1999	1	−2	0
35	SC Braga	1	−3	0
36	Kauno Žalgiris	1	−4	0