Atalanta v Pafos prediction · UEFA Europa Conference League

Full timeGraded 15 Oct 22:30

Atalanta 3–1 Pafos ATALANTA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Atalanta win~~68%

~~The market said~~73%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.155

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.111

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 20 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Atalanta win at 68%.
1′KICK-OFF Atalanta v Pafos
1′⚽ GOAL · 1' Atalanta 1–0 Pafos
1′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 1' Atalanta win: 68% at kick-off, 88% now
2′We published Atalanta at 68%. Our model now makes it 88%. 1–0 · 88–9–3
3′E. Elmas scores for Atalanta on 1′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 88–9–3
19′We published Atalanta at 68%. Our model now makes it 97%. 2–0 · 97–2–0
19′⚽ GOAL · 19' Atalanta 2–0 Pafos
20′18′: G. Raspadori on the scoresheet for Atalanta, making it 2–0. 2–0 · 97–2–0
22′SUBSTITUTION · 22' Atalanta · On: C. De Ketelaere · Off: G. Raspadori
31′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 31' Atalanta win: 68% at kick-off, 98% now
37′SUBSTITUTION · 37' Pafos · On: K. Sema · Off: David Luiz
44′44′: G. Scamacca on the scoresheet for Atalanta. 2–0 · 98–2–0
44′We published Atalanta at 68%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
44′⚽ GOAL · 44' Atalanta 3–0 Pafos · G. Scamacca
45′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.7 across ninety minutes. 3–0 · 100–0–0
45′HALF-TIME Atalanta 3–0 Pafos
45′SECOND HALF Atalanta 3–0 Pafos
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Pafos · On: J. Correia · Off: Bruno
49′SUBSTITUTION · 49' Pafos · On: A. Brito · Off: D. Quina Corrected
51′🟨 YELLOW · 50' Pafos
68′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Atalanta · On: Ederson · Off: M. Pasalic
68′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Atalanta · On: L. Samardzic · Off: N. Zalewski
70′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Pafos · On: Guga · Off: Pepe
70′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Pafos · On: Anderson Silva · Off: Lele
81′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Atalanta · On: J. Idele · Off: T. Kristensen
89′4 goals already, more than the 2.7 we expected for the whole match. 3–1 · 100–0–0
89′A goal for Pafos on 89′ — 3–1. 3–1 · 100–0–0
89′⚽ GOAL · 89' Atalanta 3–1 Pafos
90′Biel scores for Pafos on 88′ — 3–1. 3–1 · 100–0–0
90′Full time, 3–1. We called Atalanta at 68% — that one lands. 3–1 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Atalanta 3–1 Pafos
FTAtalanta 3–1 Pafos · Atalanta win: right · Over 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Atalanta are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Atalanta 68%, draw 20%, Pafos 11%. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 44%.

The AI’s read on Atalanta v PafosBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 9 Oct 07:15 · locked at kick-off

Atalanta win68%

Draw20%

Pafos win11%

Kick-offTHU 15 OCT · 20:00

RoundLeague stage · matchday 1

VenueNew Balance Arena

RefereeA. Ladeback

Line-ups

Atalanta

4-2-3-1

Pafos

4-3-3

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Atalanta

Pafos

3Days since last match4

Last match: 12 Oct · the Italian Serie A

Last match: 11 Oct · 1. Division (Cyprus)

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Atalanta	0	0	0
15	Pafos	0	0	0

In the news

from the pressAll ›

Conference League line-ups: Atalanta vs. PafosFootball Italia · 15 Oct 18:49 · Atalanta, Pafos Europa League Liveblog: RB Salzburg-Milan, Celta Vigo-Juventus, Atalanta-PafosFootball Italia · 15 Oct 16:31 · AC Milan, Celta Vigo, Juventus, Atalanta, Pafos Atalanta vs. Pafos: Bellanova rested as a precaution, Scalvini and Kessié outFootball Italia · 15 Oct 13:25 · Atalanta, Pafos

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Atalanta

4-2-3-1

29 M. Carnesecchi

77 D. Zappacosta

31 T. Kristensen

23 S. Kolasinac

47 L. Bernasconi

70 G. Gaetano

8 M. Pasalic

99 E. Elmas

18 G. Raspadori

59 N. Zalewski

9 G. Scamacca

Coach · Maurizio Sarri

Substitutes

57 · M. Sportiello

51 · M. Sonzogni

40 · R. Obric

13 · Ederson

41 · J. Idele

10 · L. Samardzic

17 · C. De Ketelaere

11 · J. Rowe

90 · N. Krstovic

Pafos

4-3-3

99 R. Majecki

7 Bruno

3 S. Mmaee

4 David Luiz

14 N. Ioannou

30 V. Dragomir

26 I. Sunjic

88 Pepe

8 D. Quina

18 Lele

20 Biel

Coach · Ricardo Sa Pinto

Substitutes

71 · M. Papastylianou

82 · P. Petrou

12 · K. Sema

72 · K. Ioannou

6 · Guga

50 · A. Brito

60 · C. Efzona

42 · G. Michael

77 · J. Correia

33 · Anderson Silva

61 · M. Kais

Our number · atalanta winFirst published 9 Oct 07:15 · updated 15 Oct 00:27 · locked at kick-off

68% The market73%

Us68%

~~Market~~73%

We make Atalanta a 68% chance to win. The market has them at 73%. We are 5 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.0–0.7.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Atalanta v Pafos~~2.02 – 0.69

~~Form · UEFA Europa Conference League this season · since 20 Aug~~W1 D1 L0 · W0 D2 L0

~~Table places · points 0 v 0~~8 v 15

~~The market · Atalanta win~~73% · ours 68%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Atalanta win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 64% to 73% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Atalanta win	68%	73%	−5
Draw	20%	16%	+4
Pafos win	11%	10%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	51%	67%	−16
Both teams to score	44%	55%	−11
Over 1.5 goals	76%	84%	−8
Over 3.5 goals	29%	47%	−18
Atalanta or draw	89%	90%	−1
Atalanta clean sheet	50%	–	–
Pafos clean sheet	13%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 13.5%

0123450 6.9 4.3 1 13.1 9.6 3.2 2 13.5 9.4 3.3 3 9.1 6.3 2.2 4 4.6 3.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Atalanta down, Pafos across0–5 goals a side shown (98.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates the clubs of 638 leagues on one scale, from the 406,727 league, cup and continental matches of the last three years up to 15 Oct 2026: each club against its own league, and the leagues against each other through the matches between them, weighting recent matches more.

The two leagues

Atalanta play in the Italian Serie A, Pafos in 1. Division (Cyprus).

Venue

Allows for home advantage: Atalanta are at home.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021/22.

What the model expects

2.02 goals for Atalanta, 0.69 for Pafos. Most likely score 2–0.

Line-ups

Confirmed 15 Oct 19:30. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · UEFA Europa Conference League this season · since 20 Aug

ATALANTA

DW0–0 · 1–0

PAFOS

DD1–1 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Mjallby AIF	0	0	0
2	Brighton	0	0	0
3	Monaco	0	0	0
4	FK Jablonec	0	0	0
5	Gent	0	0	0
6	St. Truiden	0	0	0
7	SC Freiburg	0	0	0
8	Atalanta	0	0	0
9	Ajax	0	0	0
10	Twente	0	0	0
11	Getafe	0	0	0
12	KuPS	0	0	0
13	CSKA Sofia	0	0	0
14	HNK Hajduk Split	0	0	0
15	Pafos	0	0	0
16	Aarhus	0	0	0
17	FC Copenhagen	0	0	0
18	FC Midtjylland	0	0	0
19	FC Nordsjaelland	0	0	0
20	Panathinaikos	0	0	0
21	Brann	0	0	0
22	SC Braga	0	0	0
23	Heart Of Midlothian	0	0	0
24	FC Lugano	0	0	0
25	FK Crvena Zvezda	0	0	0
26	FC Thun	0	0	0
27	Trabzonspor	0	0	0
28	Borac Banja Luka	0	0	0
29	Kairat Almaty	0	0	0
30	Egnatia Rrogozhinë	0	0	0
31	Inter Club d'Escaldes	0	0	0
32	Kauno Žalgiris	0	0	0
33	Universitatea Craiova	0	0	0
34	FC Iberia 1999	0	0	0
35	Lincoln Red Imps FC	0	0	0
36	Riga	0	0	0