Ajax v Atalanta

1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Atalanta win at 51%.
2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Atalanta 51% before kick-off, 51% now. 0–0 · 26–24–51
3. 1′KICK-OFF Ajax v Atalanta
4. 15′We said Atalanta at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 25%. 1–0 · 52–24–25
5. 15′⚽ GOAL · 15' Ajax 1–0 Atalanta
6. 15′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 15' Atalanta win: 51% at kick-off, 25% now
7. 15′THE CALL SWINGS · 15' Ajax win is now our likeliest result at 52% (was Atalanta win 48%)
8. 16′GOAL DISALLOWED · 16' Ajax
9. 16′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 16' Atalanta win: 51% at kick-off, 48% now
10. 16′THE CALL SWINGS · 16' Atalanta win is now our likeliest result at 48% (was Ajax win 52%)
11. 41′Ajax have had 11 attempts to 6 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 24–34–42
12. 43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' Atalanta win: 51% at kick-off, 41% now
13. 45′🟨 YELLOW · 45' S. Amrabat · Ajax
14. 45′SECOND HALF Ajax 0–0 Atalanta
15. 46′HALF-TIME Ajax 0–0 Atalanta
16. 47′Ajax have had 13 attempts to 7 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 24–36–40
17. 49′We said Atalanta at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 39%. 0–0 · 23–38–39
18. 55′Goalless on 55′ when we expected about 3.1 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 22–41–37
19. 56′THE CALL SWINGS · 56' Draw is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Atalanta win 39%)
20. 58′Ajax have had 17 attempts to 8 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 21–44–35
21. 59′We said Atalanta at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 21–44–34
22. 62′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Atalanta · On: L. Samardzic · Off: C. De Ketelaere
23. 62′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Ajax · On: V. Tsygankov · Off: O. Gloukh Corrected
24. 62′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Ajax · On: A. Ouazane · Off: D. Klaassen Corrected
25. 64′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 64' Atalanta win: 51% at kick-off, 31% now
26. 67′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Ajax · On: T. Arokodare · Off: Marcos Leonardo
27. 68′🟨 YELLOW · 68' L. Samardzic · Atalanta
28. 72′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Atalanta · On: N. Krstovic · Off: G. Scamacca
29. 73′We said Atalanta at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 16–60–24
30. 76′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 76' Atalanta win: 51% at kick-off, 21% now
31. 78′We said Atalanta at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 12–69–19
32. 81′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Atalanta · On: M. Pasalic · Off: G. Gaetano
33. 81′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Atalanta · On: J. Rowe · Off: E. Elmas
34. 82′We said Atalanta at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 9–77–14
35. 84′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 84' Atalanta win: 51% at kick-off, 11% now
36. 86′We said Atalanta at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 6–85–9
37. 87′We said Atalanta at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at under 1%. 1–0 · 92–8–0
38. 87′🟨 YELLOW · 86' N. Zalewski · Atalanta
39. 87′⚽ GOAL · 87' Ajax 1–0 Atalanta
40. 87′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 87' Atalanta win: 51% at kick-off, under 1% now
41. 87′THE CALL SWINGS · 87' Ajax win is now our likeliest result at 92% (was Draw 86%)
42. 88′T. Arokodare scores for Ajax on 87′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 93–7–0
43. 92′SUBSTITUTION · 90+1' Ajax · On: D. Janse · Off: J. Brandt
44. 92′🟨 YELLOW · 90+2' M. ter Stegen · Ajax
45. 92′⚽ GOAL · 90+2' Ajax 2–0 Atalanta
46. 93′90′: A. Ouazane on the scoresheet for Ajax, making it 2–0. 2–0 · 100–0–0
47. FTFULL TIME Ajax 2–0 Atalanta
48. FTAjax 2–0 Atalanta · Atalanta win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.