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Villarreal v Napoli

Villarreal

3–1Full time

Napoli

UEFA Champions League · TUE 13 OCT · Estadio de la Cerámica

Full timeGraded 13 Oct 22:30

Villarreal 3–1 Napoli VILLARREAL WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Villarreal win~~43%

~~The market said~~46%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.488

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.442

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 34 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Villarreal win at 43%.
1′Much as we predicted: Villarreal was 43% before kick-off and our model makes it 43% now. 0–0 · 43–25–32
1′KICK-OFF Villarreal v Napoli
7′Napoli ahead on 8′ through Amir Rrahmani. 0–0. 0–0 · 43–26–31
7′⚽ GOAL · 8' Villarreal 0–0 Napoli · Amir Rrahmani
8′We said Villarreal at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 20%. 0–1 · 20–22–58
8′⚽ GOAL · 8' Villarreal 0–1 Napoli · Amir Rrahmani
8′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 8' Villarreal win: 43% at kick-off, 20% now
8′THE CALL SWINGS · 8' Napoli win is now our likeliest result at 58% (was Villarreal win 20%)
11′We said Villarreal at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–1 · 19–23–58
22′⚽ GOAL · 23' Villarreal 0–1 Napoli · Georges Mikautadze
23′⚽ GOAL · 23' Villarreal 1–1 Napoli · Georges Mikautadze
25′Georges Mikautadze scores for Villarreal on 23′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 40–30–30
25′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 25' Villarreal win: 43% at kick-off, 40% now
25′THE CALL SWINGS · 25' Villarreal win is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Napoli win 30%)
26′26′ and it is 2–1: Álvaro Santiago Mouriño González on the scoresheet for Villarreal. 2–1 · 70–19–10
26′⚽ GOAL · 26' Villarreal 2–1 Napoli · Georges Mikautadze
26′⚽ GOAL · 26' Villarreal 2–1 Napoli · Álvaro Santiago Mouriño González
26′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 26' Villarreal win: 43% at kick-off, 70% now
27′We published Villarreal at 43%. Our model now makes it 70%. 2–1 · 70–19–10
30′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.8 across ninety minutes. 2–1 · 71–20–10
33′🟨 YELLOW · 33' Georges Mikautadze · Villarreal
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 44' Villarreal win: 43% at kick-off, 73% now
45′SECOND HALF Villarreal 2–1 Napoli
54′🟨 YELLOW · 55' Giovane Santana Do Nascimento · Napoli
60′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Napoli · On: Noa Lang · Off: Giovane Santana Do Nascimento Corrected
60′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Napoli · On: Leonardo Spinazzola · Off: Scott McTominay Corrected
60′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Napoli · On: David Neres · Off: Matteo Politano Corrected
61′🟨 YELLOW · 62' Kevin De Bruyne · Napoli
62′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Villarreal · On: Tani Oluwaseyi · Off: Gerard Moreno Corrected
64′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Villarreal · On: Alex Freeman · Off: Georges Mikautadze Corrected
64′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Villarreal · On: Alex Freeman · Off: Georges Mikautadze Corrected
66′🟨 YELLOW · 67' Nathan-Dylan Saliba · Villarreal
68′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Villarreal · On: Juan Foyth · Off: Alberto Moleiro Corrected
72′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Napoli · On: Stanislav Lobotka · Off: Billy Gilmour Corrected
72′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Napoli · On: Lorenzo Lucca · Off: Rafael Marin Zamora Corrected
77′We published Villarreal at 43%. Our model now makes it 86%. 2–1 · 86–13–1
77′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 77' Villarreal win: 43% at kick-off, 86% now
82′We published Villarreal at 43%. Our model now makes it 91%. 2–1 · 91–9–1
83′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Villarreal · On: Ayoze Pérez · Off: Santi Comesaña Corrected
84′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Villarreal · On: Sergi Cardona Bermúdez · Off: Pape Gueye Corrected
85′🟨 YELLOW · 85' Giovanni Di Lorenzo · Napoli
86′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 86' Villarreal win: 43% at kick-off, 94% now
87′Villarreal ahead on 86′ through Tani Oluwaseyi. 3–1. 3–1 · 100–0–0
87′We published Villarreal at 43%. Our model now makes it 100%. 3–1 · 100–0–0
87′⚽ GOAL · 86' Villarreal 3–1 Napoli · Tani Oluwaseyi
89′4 goals already, more than the 2.8 we expected for the whole match. 3–1 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Villarreal 3–1 Napoli
FTVillarreal 3–1 Napoli · Villarreal win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pass

Our analyst’s one-line verdict on how this match goes.

What decides it

The reason that decides itThe fact behind it, in one line.

– –

Where the chances come fromThe figure that shows it, in one line.

– –

What could tip the balanceWhat could change it, in one line.

– –

The AI’s read on this match

The verdict, the three reasons that decide it, what would change it and the players to watch — checked live during the game, with a review after full time. Included with a pass.

See the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 13 Oct 19:33 · locked at kick-off

Villarreal win43%

Draw26%

Napoli win31%

Kick-offTUE 13 OCT · 20:00

VenueEstadio de la Cerámica

RefereeDaniel Siebert

Line-ups

Villarreal

4-4-2

Napoli

3-4-2-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Villarreal

Napoli

35Days since last match34

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
68	Villarreal	1	−1	0
71	Napoli	1	−1	0

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

In the news

from the pressAll ›

Allegri explains surprising Napoli choices for Villarreal challengeFootball Italia · 12 min ago · Napoli, Villarreal Champions League line-ups: Villarreal vs. NapoliFootball Italia · 39 min ago · Villarreal, Napoli Champions League Liveblog: Inter vs. Club Brugge, Villarreal vs. NapoliFootball Italia · 57 min ago · Inter, Villarreal, Napoli Champions League: Villarreal vs. Napoli – Probable line-ups and where to watch on TVFootball Italia · 9 hours ago · Villarreal, Napoli

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Villarreal

4-4-2

1 Luiz Junior

15 S. Mourino

6 P. Navarro

12 R. Veiga

20 C. Romero

24 N. Saliba

14 S. Comesana

18 P. Gueye

10 A. Moleiro

7 G. Moreno

9 G. Mikautadze

Coach · Inigo Perez

Substitutes

13 · R. Gomez

8 · J. Foyth

2 · L. Costa

23 · S. Cardona

3 · A. Freeman

5 · A. Diatta

16 · C. Macia

11 · I. Akhomach

27 · N. El Jmili

22 · A. Perez

21 · T. Oluwaseyi

28 · J. Gaitan

Napoli

3-4-2-1

32 V. Milinkovic-Savic

16 R. Marin

13 A. Rrahmani

5 B. Badiashile

21 M. Politano

6 B. Gilmour

8 S. McTominay

22 G. Di Lorenzo

11 K. De Bruyne

23 Giovane

19 R. Hojlund

Coach · Massimiliano Allegri

Substitutes

1 · A. Meret

14 · N. Contini

31 · S. Beukema

37 · L. Spinazzola

68 · S. Lobotka

70 · N. Lang

7 · David Neres

20 · L. Lucca

Our number · villarreal winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 13 Oct 19:33 · locked at kick-off

43% The market46%

Us43%

~~Market~~46%

We make Villarreal a 43% chance to win. The market has them at 46%. We are 3 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.3.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · villarreal win The market, margin stripped

Published at 44%, 43% now. The market has gone from 42% to 46% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Villarreal win	43%	46%	−3
Draw	26%	26%	0
Napoli win	31%	28%	+3
Over 2.5 goals	53%	57%	−3
Both teams to score	57%	60%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	78%	79%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	31%	35%	−4
Villarreal or draw	69%	72%	−3
Villarreal clean sheet	28%	–	–
Napoli clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.1%

0123450 6.4 7.3 4.9 2.1 1 8.8 12.1 7.5 3.2 2 7.1 9.1 5.8 2.5 3 3.6 4.6 3.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Villarreal down, Napoli across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates every club on one scale from 408,274 league, cup and continental matches in 638 leagues up to 13 Oct 2026: each club against its own league, and the leagues against each other through the matches between them, weighting recent matches more.

The two leagues

Villarreal play in the La Liga, Napoli in the Serie A.

Venue

Allows for home advantage: Villarreal are at home.

Head to head

No previous meeting between these two in this competition, so this step adds nothing.

What the model expects

1.54 goals for Villarreal, 1.28 for Napoli. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 13 Oct 19:32. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No meetings between these two in UEFA Champions League since 2021. Cup ties and meetings in other competitions are not counted here.

Form · last six in UEFA Champions League

VILLARREAL

LLLLLL0–1 · 0–4 · 2–3 · 1–2 · 0–3 · 2–3

NAPOLI

DWLDLL0–0 · 2–0 · 0–2 · 1–1 · 2–3 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Sabah FA	9	+5	18
2	Fenerbahçe	7	+5	15
3	Levski Sofia	8	+3	15
4	Hapoel Beer Sheva	6	+4	12
5	Slovan Bratislava	7	0	12
6	Dinamo Zagreb	6	+4	9
7	Ararat-Armenia	6	+1	9
8	Kairat Almaty	6	+1	9
9	Bodo/Glimt	5	0	8
10	Kauno Žalgiris	6	−4	8
11	AEK Athens FC	3	+5	7
12	Universitatea Craiova	4	+3	7
13	Celje	6	+1	7
14	KI Klaksvik	4	+1	7
15	Vikingur Reykjavik	4	0	7
16	FK Crvena Zvezda	4	+6	6
17	Egnatia Rrogozhinë	4	+5	6
18	Sturm Graz	4	+3	6
19	Shamrock Rovers	4	+1	6
20	Aarhus	4	−3	6
21	Larne	4	−7	6
22	FC Iberia 1999	4	−1	5
23	Lincoln Red Imps FC	4	−1	5
24	Lyon	4	+1	4
25	Viking	3	0	4
26	Mjallby AIF	4	0	4
27	Paris Saint Germain	1	+5	3
28	Bayern München	1	+5	3
29	Barcelona	1	+4	3
30	Manchester United	1	+4	3
31	Como	1	+3	3
32	Sporting CP	1	+2	3
33	VfB Stuttgart	1	+2	3
34	Manchester City	1	+2	3
35	Aston Villa	1	+1	3
36	Borussia Dortmund	1	+1	3
37	Lens	1	+1	3
38	Real Betis	1	+1	3
39	Liverpool	1	+1	3
40	Real Madrid	1	+1	3
41	Arsenal	1	+1	3
42	Celtic	2	0	3
43	Lech Poznan	2	0	3
44	Vardar Skopje	2	0	3
45	Omonia Nicosia	2	0	3
46	Lask Linz	3	−1	3
47	Riga	2	−1	3
48	Floriana	2	−2	3
49	Sparta Praha	2	−2	3
50	KuPS	4	−3	3
51	Union St. Gilloise	2	0	2
52	FC Thun	2	0	2
53	Olympiakos Piraeus	2	0	2
54	NEC Nijmegen	4	−5	2
55	AS Roma	1	0	1
56	PSV Eindhoven	1	0	1
57	Shakhtar Donetsk	1	0	1
58	Flora Tallinn	2	−1	1
59	Drita	2	−1	1
60	Gyori ETO FC	2	−1	1
61	Gornik Zabrze	2	−1	1
62	Inter Club d'Escaldes	2	−2	1
63	Borac Banja Luka	2	−4	1
64	Petrocub	2	−5	1
65	Club Brugge KV	1	−1	0
66	Lille	1	−1	0
67	Slavia Praha	1	−1	0
68	Villarreal	1	−1	0
69	Atletico Madrid	1	−1	0
70	Inter	1	−1	0
71	Napoli	1	−1	0
72	Atert Bissen	2	−2	0
73	Galatasaray	1	−2	0
74	Tre Fiori	2	−2	0
75	FC Porto	1	−2	0
76	RB Leipzig	1	−3	0
77	Sutjeska	2	−3	0
78	The New Saints	2	−3	0
79	Feyenoord	1	−4	0
80	ML Vitebsk	2	−4	0
81	Heart Of Midlothian	2	−6	0