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Model 1.1

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Viking v Bayern München

Viking
3–3Full time
Bayern München

UEFA Champions League · TUE 13 OCT · SR-Bank Arena

Full timeGraded 13 Oct 22:30
Viking 3–3 Bayern München BAYERN MÜNCHEN WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT1–2 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Bayern München win73%
The market said86%
Brier score, this match · lower is better1.275
The market’s Brier score1.572

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay21 notes · 40 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Bayern München win at 73%.
  2. 1′KICK-OFF Viking v Bayern München
  3. 2′Much as we predicted: Bayern München was 73% before kick-off and our model makes it 73% now. 0–0 · 12–15–73
  4. 2′⚽ GOAL · 2' Viking 1–0 Bayern München · Gianni Stensness
  5. 3′Viking ahead on 2′ through Gianni Stensness. 1–0. 1–0 · 27–20–53
  6. 3′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 3' Bayern München win: 73% at kick-off, 53% now
  7. 4′We said Bayern München at 73%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 52%. 1–0 · 28–20–52
  8. 11′We said Bayern München at 73%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 49%. 1–0 · 29–21–49
  9. 19′9.0 shots for Bayern München, 1.0 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 1–0 · 31–23–46
  10. 25′We said Bayern München at 73%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 43%. 1–0 · 33–24–43
  11. 26′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 26' Bayern München win: 73% at kick-off, 43% now
  12. 30′Goals are coming at about the 4.1 we expected. 1–0 · 35–25–40
  13. 32′We said Bayern München at 73%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 39%. 1–0 · 36–26–39
  14. 37′Bayern München have had 12.0 attempts to 1.0 and it is still 1–0. 1–0 · 38–27–36
  15. 38′⚽ GOAL · 38' Viking 2–0 Bayern München · Peter Christiansen
  16. 39′Peter Christiansen scores for Viking on 38′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 65–19–15
  17. 39′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 39' Bayern München win: 73% at kick-off, 15% now
  18. 39′THE CALL SWINGS · 39' Viking win is now our likeliest result at 65% (was Bayern München win 15%)
  19. 40′We said Bayern München at 73%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 15%. 2–0 · 66–19–15
  20. 41′We said Bayern München at 73%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 2–0 · 67–19–14
  21. 43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' Bayern München win: 73% at kick-off, 13% now
  22. 45′HALF-TIME Viking 2–0 Bayern München
  23. 46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Bayern München · On: Alphonso Davies · Off: Nathaniel Brown Corrected
  24. 46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Bayern München · On: Dayot Upamecano · Off: Jonathan Tah Corrected
  25. 46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Bayern München · On: Ismael Saibari · Off: Lennart Karl Corrected
  26. 46′SECOND HALF Viking 2–0 Bayern München
  27. 52′We said Bayern München at 73%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 2–0 · 74–17–9
  28. 53′🟨 YELLOW · 52' Konrad Laimer · Bayern München
  29. 54′PENALTY · 52' Bayern München
  30. 54′🟨 YELLOW · 53' Kristoffer Haugen · Viking
  31. 55′⚽ GOAL · 54' Viking 2–1 Bayern München · Harry Kane
  32. 60′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Viking · On: Jesper Daland · Off: Kristoffer Haugen Corrected
  33. 60′⚽ GOAL · 60' Viking 2–2 Bayern München · Harry Kane
  34. 69′🟨 YELLOW · 67' Jesper Daland · Viking
  35. 69′🟨 YELLOW · 68' Ismael Saibari · Bayern München
  36. 71′⚽ GOAL · 71' Viking 2–3 Bayern München · Harry Kane
  37. 73′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Viking · On: Herman Haugen · Off: Henrik Bjørdal Corrected
  38. 73′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Viking · On: Herman Haugen · Off: Henrik Bjørdal Corrected
  39. 74′🟨 YELLOW · 73' Michael Olise · Bayern München
  40. 75′🟥 RED CARD · 74' Michael Olise · Bayern München
  41. 76′Luis Díaz scores for Bayern München on 71′ — 2–3. 2–3 · 1–10–89
  42. 76′🟥 RED CARD · 73' Michael Olise · Bayern München
  43. 77′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 77' Bayern München win: 73% at kick-off, 89% now
  44. 77′THE CALL SWINGS · 77' Bayern München win is now our likeliest result at 89% (was Viking win 1%)
  45. 77′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Bayern München · On: Josip Stanišić · Off: Luis Díaz Corrected
  46. 78′A red card for Bayern München on 73′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 2–3 · 1–9–90
  47. 81′We published Bayern München at 73%. Our model now makes it 92%. 2–3 · 0–8–92
  48. 84′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Bayern München · On: Hiroki Ito · Off: Ismael Saibari Corrected
  49. 85′That is 5, and we only asked for 4.1 across ninety minutes. 2–3 · 0–6–94
  50. 85′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 85' Bayern München win: 73% at kick-off, 94% now
  51. 86′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Viking · On: Simen Kvia Egeskog · Off: Joe Bell Corrected
  52. 86′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Viking · On: Viljar Helland Vevatne · Off: Henrik Heggheim Corrected
  53. 86′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Viking · On: Tobias Moi · Off: Erik Botheim Corrected
  54. 87′We published Bayern München at 73%. Our model now makes it 95%. 2–3 · 0–5–95
  55. 88′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Viking · On: Tobias Moi · Off: Erik Botheim Corrected
  56. 90′90′ and it is 3–3: Herman Haugen on the scoresheet for Viking. 3–3 · 3–87–9
  57. 90′23.0 shots for Bayern München, 3.0 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 3–3 · 3–87–9
  58. 90′6 goals already, more than the 4.1 we expected for the whole match. 3–3 · 3–87–9
  59. 90′⚽ GOAL · 90' Viking 3–3 Bayern München · Peter Christiansen
  60. 90′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90' Bayern München win: 73% at kick-off, 9% now
  61. 90′THE CALL SWINGS · 90' Draw is now our likeliest result at 87% (was Bayern München win 9%)
  62. FTFULL TIME Viking 3–3 Bayern München
  63. FTViking 3–3 Bayern München · Bayern München win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 1–2 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pass

Our analyst’s one-line verdict on how this match goes.

What decides it

1

The reason that decides itThe fact behind it, in one line.

– –
2

Where the chances come fromThe figure that shows it, in one line.

– –
3

What could tip the balanceWhat could change it, in one line.

– –
The AI’s read on this match

The verdict, the three reasons that decide it, what would change it and the players to watch — checked live during the game, with a review after full time. Included with a pass.

See the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 13 Oct 19:33 · locked at kick-off

Viking win12%
Draw15%
Bayern München win73%

Kick-offTUE 13 OCT · 20:00

VenueSR-Bank Arena

RefereeGeorgi Nikolov Kabakov

Line-ups

Viking

4-3-3

Bayern München

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Viking

Bayern München

34Days since last match33
0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#TEAMPGDPTS
25Viking304
28Bayern München1+53

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

In the news

from the pressAll ›
PODCAST | Matchday 5 review – Augsburg hold Bayern Munich, Cologne earn Rhine derby bragging rights, plus moreGet German Football News · 8 hours ago · Bayern München Viking’s two head coaches on Champions League adventure: ‘For us, it’s the best team in the world’The Guardian · 11 hours ago · Viking, Bayern München Vincent Kompany confirms Jonas Urbig will start vs. VikingGet German Football News · 1 day ago · Viking, Bayern München Champions League Preview | Viking FK vs Bayern Munich: The ideal opening match for Vincent Kompany after Bundesliga slip-up?Get German Football News · 1 day ago · Viking, Bayern München

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Viking

4-3-3

1 A. Ostbo

5 H. Heggheim

6 G. Stensness

25 H. Falchener

28 K. Haugen

16 H. Bjordal

8 J. Bell

7 K. Askildsen

20 P. Christiansen

22 E. Botheim

10 Z. Tripic

Coach · Bjarte Aarsheim

Substitutes

30 · L. Belko

3 · V. Vevatne

2 · H. J. Haugen

17 · E. Bassey

24 · V. Auklend

27 · J. Daland

29 · T. Moi

33 · J. Hansen

26 · S. Kvia-Egeskog

23 · N. Fuglestad

11 · R. Postema

19 · A. Cosic

Bayern München

4-2-3-1

40 J. Urbig

27 K. Laimer

4 J. Tah

3 Kim Min-Jae

11 N. Brown

6 J. Kimmich

8 T. Bischof

17 M. Olise

42 L. Karl

14 L. Diaz

9 H. Kane

Coach · Vincent Kompany

Substitutes

26 · S. Ulreich

1 · M. Neuer

38 · D. Podar-Stiube

19 · A. Davies

2 · D. Upamecano

21 · H. Ito

44 · J. Stanisic

23 · S. Boey

34 · I. Saibari

45 · A. Pavlovic

39 · B. Sapoko Ndiaye

7 · S. Gnabry

Our number · bayern münchen winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 13 Oct 19:33 · locked at kick-off
73% The market86%
Us73%
Market86%

We make Bayern München a 73% chance to win. The market has them at 86%. We are 13 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–2.9.

How the number movedSince we published
70%75%80%85%90% 9 OCT 06:2113 OCT 18:45
Our probability · bayern münchen win The market, margin stripped

Published at 74%, 73% now. The market has gone from 87% to 86% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Viking win12%6%+6
Draw15%9%+6
Bayern München win73%86%−13
Over 2.5 goals78%82%−4
Both teams to score66%58%+8
Over 1.5 goals92%93%−1
Over 3.5 goals59%66%−7
Viking or draw27%14%+13
Viking clean sheet5%––
Bayern München clean sheet31%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–2 at 8.3%
0123450 4.6 7.0 6.9 5.1 3.01 5.8 8.3 8.1 6.0 3.52 3.3 4.9 4.8 3.5 2.13 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Viking down, Bayern München across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No meetings between these two in UEFA Champions League since 2021. Cup ties and meetings in other competitions are not counted here.

Form · last six in UEFA Champions League

VIKING

DWL2–2 · 3–1 · 1–3

BAYERN MÜNCHEN

WWWLDW4–1 · 2–1 · 4–3 · 4–5 · 1–1 · 5–0

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Sabah FA9+518
2Fenerbahçe7+515
3Levski Sofia8+315
4Hapoel Beer Sheva6+412
5Slovan Bratislava7012
6Dinamo Zagreb6+49
7Ararat-Armenia6+19
8Kairat Almaty6+19
9Bodo/Glimt508
10Kauno Žalgiris6−48
11AEK Athens FC3+57
12Universitatea Craiova4+37
13Celje6+17
14KI Klaksvik4+17
15Vikingur Reykjavik407
16FK Crvena Zvezda4+66
17Egnatia Rrogozhinë4+56
18Sturm Graz4+36
19Shamrock Rovers4+16
20Aarhus4−36
21Larne4−76
22FC Iberia 19994−15
23Lincoln Red Imps FC4−15
24Lyon4+14
25Viking304
26Mjallby AIF404
27Paris Saint Germain1+53
28Bayern München1+53
29Barcelona1+43
30Manchester United1+43
31Como1+33
32Sporting CP1+23
33VfB Stuttgart1+23
34Manchester City1+23
35Aston Villa1+13
36Borussia Dortmund1+13
37Lens1+13
38Real Betis1+13
39Liverpool1+13
40Real Madrid1+13
41Arsenal1+13
42Celtic203
43Lech Poznan203
44Vardar Skopje203
45Omonia Nicosia203
46Lask Linz3−13
47Riga2−13
48Floriana2−23
49Sparta Praha2−23
50KuPS4−33
51Union St. Gilloise202
52FC Thun202
53Olympiakos Piraeus202
54NEC Nijmegen4−52
55AS Roma101
56PSV Eindhoven101
57Shakhtar Donetsk101
58Flora Tallinn2−11
59Drita2−11
60Gyori ETO FC2−11
61Gornik Zabrze2−11
62Inter Club d'Escaldes2−21
63Borac Banja Luka2−41
64Petrocub2−51
65Club Brugge KV1−10
66Lille1−10
67Slavia Praha1−10
68Villarreal1−10
69Atletico Madrid1−10
70Inter1−10
71Napoli1−10
72Atert Bissen2−20
73Galatasaray1−20
74Tre Fiori2−20
75FC Porto1−20
76RB Leipzig1−30
77Sutjeska2−30
78The New Saints2−30
79Feyenoord1−40
80ML Vitebsk2−40
81Heart Of Midlothian2−60

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.