VfB Stuttgart v Atletico Madrid prediction · UEFA Champions League

Full timeGraded 20 Oct 22:30

VfB Stuttgart 1–1 Atletico Madrid ATLETICO MADRID WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Atletico Madrid win~~43%

~~The market said~~46%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.866

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.866

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay15 notes · 26 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Atletico Madrid win at 43%.
1′Much as we predicted: Atletico Madrid was 43% before kick-off and our model makes it 43% now. 0–0 · 33–24–43
1′KICK-OFF VfB Stuttgart v Atletico Madrid
18′🟨 YELLOW · 17' VfB Stuttgart
19′VfB Stuttgart have had 8 attempts to 0 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 32–27–41
36′We said Atletico Madrid at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 1–0 · 62–23–14
36′Goals are coming at about the 3.1 we expected. 1–0 · 62–23–14
36′⚽ GOAL · 36' VfB Stuttgart 1–0 Atletico Madrid
36′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 36' Atletico Madrid win: 43% at kick-off, 14% now
36′THE CALL SWINGS · 36' VfB Stuttgart win is now our likeliest result at 62% (was Atletico Madrid win 38%)
38′36′: Jamie Leweling on the scoresheet for VfB Stuttgart, making it 1–0. 1–0 · 63–23–14
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' Atletico Madrid win: 43% at kick-off, 13% now
45′HALF-TIME VfB Stuttgart 1–0 Atletico Madrid
45′SECOND HALF VfB Stuttgart 1–0 Atletico Madrid
46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Atletico Madrid · On: Ademola Lookman · Off: Jonathan David
46′⚽ GOAL · 46' VfB Stuttgart 1–1 Atletico Madrid
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 46' Atletico Madrid win: 43% at kick-off, 35% now
48′Atletico Madrid level it on 47′ through Julián Álvarez. 1–1. 1–1 · 28–37–34
51′THE CALL SWINGS · 51' Draw is now our likeliest result at 39% (was VfB Stuttgart win 65%)
52′SUBSTITUTION · 52' VfB Stuttgart · On: Lorenz Assignon · Off: Josha Vagnoman
57′We said Atletico Madrid at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 31%. 1–1 · 26–43–31
62′We said Atletico Madrid at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 24–47–29
63′🟥 RED CARD · 63' Atletico Madrid
65′A red card for Atletico Madrid on 64′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 1–1 · 23–50–27
70′We said Atletico Madrid at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 20–56–24
70′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Atletico Madrid · On: Johnny Cardoso · Off: Alejandro Baena Rodríguez
71′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 71' Atletico Madrid win: 43% at kick-off, 23% now
72′SUBSTITUTION · 72' VfB Stuttgart · On: Ermedin Demirović · Off: Jamie Leweling
76′We said Atletico Madrid at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 16–65–19
79′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Atletico Madrid · On: Obed Vargas · Off: Julián Álvarez
79′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Atletico Madrid · On: Robin Le Normand · Off: Pablo Barrios Rivas
82′VfB Stuttgart have had 16 attempts to 10 and it is still 1–1. 1–1 · 11–77–12
82′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 82' Atletico Madrid win: 43% at kick-off, 12% now
85′We said Atletico Madrid at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 1–1 · 8–83–9
88′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Atletico Madrid · On: Alexander Sørloth · Off: Giuliano Simeone Baldini
88′SUBSTITUTION · 87' VfB Stuttgart · On: Leo Sauer · Off: Chris Führich
88′SUBSTITUTION · 87' VfB Stuttgart · On: Dženan Pejčinović · Off: Deniz Undav
89′🟨 YELLOW · 85' Diego Pablo Simeone · Atletico Madrid
91′We said Atletico Madrid at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 4–92–4
93′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+3' Atletico Madrid win: 43% at kick-off, 3% now
94′Full time, 1–1. We called Atletico Madrid at 43% — wrong, and it goes on the record that way. 1–1 · 0–100–0
FTFULL TIME VfB Stuttgart 1–1 Atletico Madrid
FTVfB Stuttgart 1–1 Atletico Madrid · Atletico Madrid win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Atletico Madrid are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: VfB Stuttgart 33%, draw 24%, Atletico Madrid 43%. Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 63%.

The AI’s read on VfB Stuttgart v Atletico MadridBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 14 Oct 04:28 · locked at kick-off

VfB Stuttgart win33%

Draw24%

Atletico Madrid win43%

Kick-offTUE 20 OCT · 20:00

RoundLeague stage · matchday 3

VenueMHP Arena

RefereeSerdar Gozubuyuk

Line-ups

VfB Stuttgart

4-2-3-1

Atletico Madrid

4-4-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

VfB Stuttgart

Atletico Madrid

3Days since last match3

Last match: 17 Oct · the German Bundesliga

Last match: 17 Oct · La Liga

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	VfB Stuttgart	2	+5	6
15	Atletico Madrid	2	+1	3

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

VfB Stuttgart

4-2-3-1

41 D. Seimen

4 J. Vagnoman

3 R. Hendriks

24 J. Chabot

7 M. Mittelstädt

21 G. Prömel

6 A. Stiller

18 J. Leweling

11 B. El Khannouss

10 C. Führich

26 D. Undav

Coach · S. Hoeneb

Substitutes

2 · A. Al Dakhil

44 · L. Sauer

17 · D. Pejčinović

28 · N. Nartey

16 · A. Karazor

29 · Finn Jeltsch

22 · L. Assignon

1 · F. Bredlow

9 · E. Demirović

33 · M. Funk

14 · L. Jaquez

Atletico Madrid

4-4-2

13 J. Oblak

14 Marcos Llorente

18 Marc Pubill

17 D. Hancko

22 Álex Grimaldo

20 G. Simeone

8 Pablo Barrios

23 M. Hjulmand

10 Álex Baena

15 J. David

19 J. Álvarez

Coach · D. Simeone

Substitutes

9 · A. Sørloth

16 · Arnau Ortiz

1 · J. Musso

4 · Rodrigo Mendoza

11 · A. Lookman

24 · Robin Le Normand

7 · Lee Kang-In

27 · J. Dominguez

46 · J. Castillo

5 · J. Cardoso

3 · O. Vargas

30 · Dani Martínez

Our number · atletico madrid winFirst published 14 Oct 04:28 · updated 15 Oct 00:26 · locked at kick-off

43% The market46%

Us43%

~~Market~~46%

We make Atletico Madrid a 43% chance to win. The market has them at 46%. We are 3 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.7.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · VfB Stuttgart v Atletico Madrid~~1.46 – 1.68

~~Form · UEFA Champions League this season · since 9 Sept~~W2 D0 L0 · W1 D0 L1

~~Table places · points 6 v 3~~4 v 15

~~The market · Atletico Madrid win~~46% · ours 43%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Atletico Madrid win The market, margin stripped

Published at 42%, 43% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 46% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
VfB Stuttgart win	33%	29%	+4
Draw	24%	25%	−1
Atletico Madrid win	43%	46%	−3
Over 2.5 goals	61%	65%	−4
Both teams to score	63%	67%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	82%	83%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	38%	45%	−7
VfB Stuttgart or draw	57%	54%	+3
VfB Stuttgart clean sheet	19%	–	–
Atletico Madrid clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.0%

0123450 4.7 6.9 6.1 3.4 1 6.0 11.0 8.9 5.0 2.1 2 4.6 7.7 6.5 3.6 3 2.2 3.8 3.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+VfB Stuttgart down, Atletico Madrid across0–5 goals a side shown (98.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates the clubs of 638 leagues on one scale, from the 410,768 league, cup and continental matches of the last three years up to 19 Oct 2026: each club against its own league, and the leagues against each other through the matches between them, weighting recent matches more.

The two leagues

VfB Stuttgart play in the German Bundesliga, Atletico Madrid in La Liga.

Venue

Allows for home advantage: VfB Stuttgart are at home.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021/22.

What the model expects

1.46 goals for VfB Stuttgart, 1.68 for Atletico Madrid. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 20 Oct 19:30. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · UEFA Champions League this season · since 9 Sept

VFB STUTTGART

WW3–1 · 3–0

ATLETICO MADRID

LW1–2 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Paris Saint Germain	2	+7	6
2	Barcelona	2	+7	6
3	Aston Villa	2	+7	6
4	VfB Stuttgart	2	+5	6
5	Liverpool	2	+4	6
6	Sporting CP	2	+4	6
7	Arsenal	2	+4	6
8	Real Madrid	2	+2	6
9	Real Betis	2	+2	6
10	Bayern München	2	+5	4
11	Shakhtar Donetsk	2	+2	4
12	Como	2	+2	3
13	Manchester United	2	+2	3
14	Villarreal	2	+1	3
15	Atletico Madrid	2	+1	3
16	Club Brugge KV	2	0	3
17	Manchester City	2	0	3
18	Borussia Dortmund	2	0	3
19	Lens	2	−1	3
20	AEK Athens FC	2	−1	3
21	RB Leipzig	2	−2	3
22	Sabah FA	2	−2	3
23	Feyenoord	2	−3	3
24	Bodo/Glimt	2	−4	3
25	AS Roma	2	−1	1
26	PSV Eindhoven	2	−1	1
27	Viking	2	−2	1
28	Fenerbahçe	2	−6	1
29	Inter	2	−2	0
30	FC Porto	2	−3	0
31	Slavia Praha	2	−3	0
32	Napoli	2	−3	0
33	Lask Linz	2	−4	0
34	Lille	2	−4	0
35	Galatasaray	2	−5	0
36	Slovan Bratislava	2	−8	0