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Sporting CP v Lask Linz

Sporting CP
2–3Full time
Lask Linz

UEFA Champions League · WED 21 OCT · Estádio José Alvalade

Full timeGraded 21 Oct 22:30
Sporting CP 2–3 Lask Linz SPORTING CP WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT3–0 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Sporting CP win83%
The market said75%
Brier score, this match · lower is better1.595
The market’s Brier score1.406

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay17 notes · 34 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Sporting CP win at 83%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Sporting CP 83% before kick-off, 83% now. 0–0 · 83–11–6
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Sporting CP v Lask Linz
  4. 5′Luis Suárez scores for Sporting CP on 5′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 94–4–2
  5. 5′⚽ GOAL · 5' Sporting CP 1–0 Lask Linz · Luis Suárez (penalty)
  6. 5′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 5' Sporting CP win: 83% at kick-off, 94% now
  7. 15′15′: Christoph Lang on the scoresheet for Lask Linz, making it 1–1. 1–1 · 80–14–7
  8. 15′⚽ GOAL · 15' Sporting CP 1–1 Lask Linz · Christoph Lang
  9. 15′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 15' Sporting CP win: 83% at kick-off, 80% now
  10. 33′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 33' Sporting CP win: 83% at kick-off, 73% now
  11. 34′🟨 YELLOW · 33' Christoph Lang · Lask Linz
  12. 37′The goal count is tracking the 4.0 we expected. 1–1 · 72–20–8
  13. 38′We said Sporting CP at 83%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 71%. 1–1 · 71–21–8
  14. 42′We said Sporting CP at 83%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 69%. 1–1 · 69–22–9
  15. 45′🟨 YELLOW · 45' Sascha Horvath · Lask Linz
  16. 45′HALF-TIME Sporting CP 1–1 Lask Linz
  17. 46′SECOND HALF Sporting CP 1–1 Lask Linz
  18. 50′We said Sporting CP at 83%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 64%. 1–1 · 64–27–9
  19. 52′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 52' Sporting CP win: 83% at kick-off, 63% now
  20. 53′SUBSTITUTION · 52' Lask Linz · On: Tobias Schützenauer · Off: Lukas Jungwirth
  21. 57′We said Sporting CP at 83%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 59%. 1–1 · 59–32–9
  22. 62′We said Sporting CP at 83%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 54%. 1–1 · 54–37–9
  23. 63′Lask Linz ahead on 63′ through Sasa Kalajdzic. 1–2. 1–2 · 21–32–47
  24. 63′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 63' Sporting CP win: 83% at kick-off, 53% now
  25. 63′⚽ GOAL · 63' Sporting CP 1–2 Lask Linz · Sasa Kalajdzic
  26. 63′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 63' Sporting CP win: 83% at kick-off, 21% now
  27. 63′THE CALL SWINGS · 63' Lask Linz win is now our likeliest result at 47% (was Sporting CP win 53%)
  28. 64′We said Sporting CP at 83%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 20%. 1–2 · 20–32–48
  29. 65′We said Sporting CP at 83%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 1–2 · 19–32–49
  30. 65′🟨 YELLOW · 64' Issa Doumbia · Sporting CP
  31. 66′🟨 YELLOW · 65' João Simões · Sporting CP
  32. 67′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Lask Linz · On: Samuel Adeniran · Off: Christoph Lang
  33. 67′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Lask Linz · On: Alessandro Schöpf · Off: Sascha Horvath
  34. 68′Krystof Danek scores for Lask Linz on 68′ — 1–3. 1–3 · 4–12–84
  35. 68′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Sporting CP · On: Flávio Gonçalves · Off: João Simões
  36. 68′⚽ GOAL · 68' Sporting CP 1–3 Lask Linz · Krystof Danek
  37. 68′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 68' Sporting CP win: 83% at kick-off, 4% now
  38. 69′We said Sporting CP at 83%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 3%. 1–3 · 3–11–85
  39. 69′That is 4, and we only asked for 4.0 across ninety minutes. 1–3 · 3–11–85
  40. 69′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 69' Sporting CP win: 83% at kick-off, 3% now
  41. 73′🟨 YELLOW · 72' Sasa Kalajdzic · Lask Linz
  42. 80′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Sporting CP · On: Luís Guilherme · Off: Geny Catamo
  43. 80′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Sporting CP · On: Jesse Derry · Off: Nestory Irankunda
  44. 81′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Sporting CP · On: Fotis Ioannidis · Off: Issa Doumbia
  45. 84′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Lask Linz · On: Moses Usor · Off: Sasa Kalajdzic
  46. 85′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Lask Linz · On: Florian Flecker · Off: Kasper Jorgensen
  47. 90′89′: Luis Suárez on the scoresheet for Sporting CP, making it 2–3. 2–3 · 1–9–90
  48. 90′⚽ GOAL · 89' Sporting CP 2–3 Lask Linz · Luis Suárez
  49. 91′5 goals already, more than the 4.0 we expected for the whole match. 2–3 · 0–8–92
  50. 92′🟨 YELLOW · 89' Tobias Schützenauer · Lask Linz
  51. 92′🟨 YELLOW · 90+1' Krystof Danek · Lask Linz
  52. FTFULL TIME Sporting CP 2–3 Lask Linz
  53. FTSporting CP 2–3 Lask Linz · Sporting CP win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 3–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Sporting CP are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Sporting CP 83%, draw 11%, Lask Linz 6%. Over 2.5 goals 76%, both teams to score 53%.

The AI’s read on Sporting CP v Lask LinzBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 15 Oct 04:33 · locked at kick-off

Sporting CP win83%
Draw11%
Lask Linz win6%

Kick-offWED 21 OCT · 20:00

RoundLeague stage · matchday 3

VenueEstádio José Alvalade

RefereeNick Walsh

Line-ups

Sporting CP

4-3-3

Lask Linz

3-4-3

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Sporting CP

Lask Linz

8Days since last match4

Last match: 13 Oct · UEFA Champions League

Last match: 17 Oct · the Austrian Bundesliga

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
7Sporting CP2+46
32Lask Linz2−40

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Sporting CP

4-3-3

30 Kaique

22 Iván Fresneda

72 Eduardo Quaresma

25 Gonçalo Inácio

20 M. Araújo

8 João Simões

5 Sergi Altimira

77 I. Doumbia

10 Geny Catamo

97 L. Suárez

19 N. Irankunda

Coach · Rui Borges

Substitutes

1 · Rui Silva

55 · Ibrahima Ba

28 · J. Derry

58 · Flávio Gonçalves

9 · Rafael Ferreira Nel

7 · F. Ioannidis

21 · Pedro Lima

31 · Luis Guilherme

4 · S. Andersen

13 · G. Vagiannidis

73 · Eduardo Felicíssimo

50 · Rodrigo Dias

Lask Linz

3-4-3

1 L. Jungwirth

4 X. Mbuyamba

43 Alemão

16 A. Andrade

20 K. Jørgensen

10 R. Ljubičić

30 S. Horvath

25 Y. Dibango

9 K. Daněk

11 S. Kalajdzic

27 C. Lang

Coach · D. Kühbauer

Substitutes

21 · M. Verhaeghe

7 · S. Adeniran

6 · M. Bogarde

23 · Daniel Elfadli

29 · F. Flecker

3 · M. Freckleton

45 · N. Kane

39 · Christof Katzmayr

18 · A. Schöpf

33 · T. Schützenauer

8 · M. Usor

Our number · sporting cp winFirst published 15 Oct 04:33 · updated 18 Oct 00:22 · locked at kick-off
83% The market75%
Us83%
Market75%

We make Sporting CP an 83% chance to win. The market has them at 75%. We are 8 points more confident than the market. The model expects 3.2–0.8.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Sporting CP v Lask Linz3.19 – 0.79
Form · UEFA Champions League this season · since 19 AugW2 D0 L0 · W1 D0 L3
Table places · points 6 v 07 v 32
The market · Sporting CP win75% · ours 83%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
70%75%80%85% 15 OCT 04:3321 OCT 19:43
Our probability · Sporting CP win The market, margin stripped

Published at 82%, 83% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 75% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Sporting CP win83%75%+8
Draw11%15%−4
Lask Linz win6%10%−4
Over 2.5 goals76%70%+6
Both teams to score53%55%−2
Over 1.5 goals91%87%+4
Over 3.5 goals56%50%+6
Sporting CP or draw94%90%+4
Sporting CP clean sheet45%––
Lask Linz clean sheet4%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 3–0 at 10.1%
0123450 2.0 1 5.8 4.9 2 9.5 7.5 3.0 3 10.1 8.0 3.2 4 8.0 6.4 2.5 5 5.1 4.1
under 2% 5% 12%+Sporting CP down, Lask Linz across0–5 goals a side shown (89.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · UEFA Champions League this season · since 19 Aug

SPORTING CP

WW3–1 · 2–0

LASK LINZ

LWLL0–3 · 4–1 · 0–1 · 3–6

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Paris Saint Germain3+99
2Liverpool3+59
3VfB Stuttgart3+57
4Aston Villa2+76
5Barcelona3+56
6Manchester City3+46
7Sporting CP2+46
8Arsenal2+46
9Real Madrid2+26
10Real Betis2+26
11Borussia Dortmund3+16
12Bayern München2+54
13AS Roma3+34
14Shakhtar Donetsk2+24
15Atletico Madrid3+14
16PSV Eindhoven304
17Como2+23
18Manchester United2+23
19Villarreal303
20Club Brugge KV203
21Lens2−13
22Napoli3−23
23RB Leipzig2−23
24Feyenoord2−33
25Sabah FA3−33
26Bodo/Glimt3−53
27AEK Athens FC3−53
28Fenerbahçe3−62
29Viking2−21
30Slavia Praha3−31
31Inter2−20
32Lask Linz2−40
33FC Porto3−40
34Lille2−40
35Galatasaray2−50
36Slovan Bratislava3−120

The competition's standings before kick-off.