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Sporting CP v Lask Linz
Sporting CP
Lask LinzUEFA Champions League · WED 21 OCT · Estádio José Alvalade
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said Sporting CP win at 83%.
- 1′Little has changed for our model: Sporting CP 83% before kick-off, 83% now. 0–0 · 83–11–6
- 1′KICK-OFF Sporting CP v Lask Linz
- 5′Luis Suárez scores for Sporting CP on 5′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 94–4–2
- 5′⚽ GOAL · 5' Sporting CP 1–0 Lask Linz · Luis Suárez (penalty)
- 5′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 5' Sporting CP win: 83% at kick-off, 94% now
- 15′15′: Christoph Lang on the scoresheet for Lask Linz, making it 1–1. 1–1 · 80–14–7
- 15′⚽ GOAL · 15' Sporting CP 1–1 Lask Linz · Christoph Lang
- 15′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 15' Sporting CP win: 83% at kick-off, 80% now
- 33′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 33' Sporting CP win: 83% at kick-off, 73% now
- 34′🟨 YELLOW · 33' Christoph Lang · Lask Linz
- 37′The goal count is tracking the 4.0 we expected. 1–1 · 72–20–8
- 38′We said Sporting CP at 83%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 71%. 1–1 · 71–21–8
- 42′We said Sporting CP at 83%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 69%. 1–1 · 69–22–9
- 45′🟨 YELLOW · 45' Sascha Horvath · Lask Linz
- 45′HALF-TIME Sporting CP 1–1 Lask Linz
- 46′SECOND HALF Sporting CP 1–1 Lask Linz
- 50′We said Sporting CP at 83%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 64%. 1–1 · 64–27–9
- 52′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 52' Sporting CP win: 83% at kick-off, 63% now
- 53′SUBSTITUTION · 52' Lask Linz · On: Tobias Schützenauer · Off: Lukas Jungwirth
- 57′We said Sporting CP at 83%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 59%. 1–1 · 59–32–9
- 62′We said Sporting CP at 83%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 54%. 1–1 · 54–37–9
- 63′Lask Linz ahead on 63′ through Sasa Kalajdzic. 1–2. 1–2 · 21–32–47
- 63′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 63' Sporting CP win: 83% at kick-off, 53% now
- 63′⚽ GOAL · 63' Sporting CP 1–2 Lask Linz · Sasa Kalajdzic
- 63′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 63' Sporting CP win: 83% at kick-off, 21% now
- 63′THE CALL SWINGS · 63' Lask Linz win is now our likeliest result at 47% (was Sporting CP win 53%)
- 64′We said Sporting CP at 83%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 20%. 1–2 · 20–32–48
- 65′We said Sporting CP at 83%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 1–2 · 19–32–49
- 65′🟨 YELLOW · 64' Issa Doumbia · Sporting CP
- 66′🟨 YELLOW · 65' João Simões · Sporting CP
- 67′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Lask Linz · On: Samuel Adeniran · Off: Christoph Lang
- 67′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Lask Linz · On: Alessandro Schöpf · Off: Sascha Horvath
- 68′Krystof Danek scores for Lask Linz on 68′ — 1–3. 1–3 · 4–12–84
- 68′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Sporting CP · On: Flávio Gonçalves · Off: João Simões
- 68′⚽ GOAL · 68' Sporting CP 1–3 Lask Linz · Krystof Danek
- 68′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 68' Sporting CP win: 83% at kick-off, 4% now
- 69′We said Sporting CP at 83%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 3%. 1–3 · 3–11–85
- 69′That is 4, and we only asked for 4.0 across ninety minutes. 1–3 · 3–11–85
- 69′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 69' Sporting CP win: 83% at kick-off, 3% now
- 73′🟨 YELLOW · 72' Sasa Kalajdzic · Lask Linz
- 80′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Sporting CP · On: Luís Guilherme · Off: Geny Catamo
- 80′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Sporting CP · On: Jesse Derry · Off: Nestory Irankunda
- 81′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Sporting CP · On: Fotis Ioannidis · Off: Issa Doumbia
- 84′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Lask Linz · On: Moses Usor · Off: Sasa Kalajdzic
- 85′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Lask Linz · On: Florian Flecker · Off: Kasper Jorgensen
- 90′89′: Luis Suárez on the scoresheet for Sporting CP, making it 2–3. 2–3 · 1–9–90
- 90′⚽ GOAL · 89' Sporting CP 2–3 Lask Linz · Luis Suárez
- 91′5 goals already, more than the 4.0 we expected for the whole match. 2–3 · 0–8–92
- 92′🟨 YELLOW · 89' Tobias Schützenauer · Lask Linz
- 92′🟨 YELLOW · 90+1' Krystof Danek · Lask Linz
- FTFULL TIME Sporting CP 2–3 Lask Linz
- FTSporting CP 2–3 Lask Linz · Sporting CP win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 3–0 exactly: wrong
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
Sporting CP are clear favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: Sporting CP 83%, draw 11%, Lask Linz 6%. Over 2.5 goals 76%, both teams to score 53%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 15 Oct 04:33 · locked at kick-off
Sporting CP win83%
Lask Linz win6%Kick-offWED 21 OCT · 20:00
RoundLeague stage · matchday 3
VenueEstádio José Alvalade
RefereeNick Walsh
Match timeline
All events
Sporting CPMIN
Lask LinzEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Sporting CP
4-3-3
Lask Linz
3-4-3
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Sporting CP
Lask Linz
Last match: 13 Oct · UEFA Champions League
Last match: 17 Oct · the Austrian Bundesliga
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.
Line-ups
Sporting CP
4-3-3
30 Kaique
22 Iván Fresneda
72 Eduardo Quaresma
25 Gonçalo Inácio
20 M. Araújo
8 João Simões
5 Sergi Altimira
77 I. Doumbia
10 Geny Catamo
97 L. Suárez
19 N. Irankunda
Coach · Rui Borges
Substitutes
1 · Rui Silva
55 · Ibrahima Ba
28 · J. Derry
58 · Flávio Gonçalves
9 · Rafael Ferreira Nel
7 · F. Ioannidis
21 · Pedro Lima
31 · Luis Guilherme
4 · S. Andersen
13 · G. Vagiannidis
73 · Eduardo Felicíssimo
50 · Rodrigo Dias
Lask Linz
3-4-3
1 L. Jungwirth
4 X. Mbuyamba
43 Alemão
16 A. Andrade
20 K. Jørgensen
10 R. Ljubičić
30 S. Horvath
25 Y. Dibango
9 K. Daněk
11 S. Kalajdzic
27 C. Lang
Coach · D. Kühbauer
Substitutes
21 · M. Verhaeghe
7 · S. Adeniran
6 · M. Bogarde
23 · Daniel Elfadli
29 · F. Flecker
3 · M. Freckleton
45 · N. Kane
39 · Christof Katzmayr
18 · A. Schöpf
33 · T. Schützenauer
8 · M. Usor
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Sporting CP
4-3-3
30 Kaique
22 Iván Fresneda
72 Eduardo Quaresma
25 Gonçalo Inácio
20 M. Araújo
8 João Simões
5 Sergi Altimira
77 I. Doumbia
10 Geny Catamo
97 L. Suárez
19 N. Irankunda
Coach · Rui Borges
Substitutes
1 · Rui Silva
55 · Ibrahima Ba
28 · J. Derry
58 · Flávio Gonçalves
9 · Rafael Ferreira Nel
7 · F. Ioannidis
21 · Pedro Lima
31 · Luis Guilherme
4 · S. Andersen
13 · G. Vagiannidis
73 · Eduardo Felicíssimo
50 · Rodrigo Dias
Lask Linz
3-4-3
1 L. Jungwirth
4 X. Mbuyamba
43 Alemão
16 A. Andrade
20 K. Jørgensen
10 R. Ljubičić
30 S. Horvath
25 Y. Dibango
9 K. Daněk
11 S. Kalajdzic
27 C. Lang
Coach · D. Kühbauer
Substitutes
21 · M. Verhaeghe
7 · S. Adeniran
6 · M. Bogarde
23 · Daniel Elfadli
29 · F. Flecker
3 · M. Freckleton
45 · N. Kane
39 · Christof Katzmayr
18 · A. Schöpf
33 · T. Schützenauer
8 · M. Usor
We make Sporting CP an 83% chance to win. The market has them at 75%. We are 8 points more confident than the market. The model expects 3.2–0.8.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Published at 82%, 83% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 75% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting CP win | 83% | 75% | +8 |
| Draw | 11% | 15% | −4 |
| Lask Linz win | 6% | 10% | −4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 76% | 70% | +6 |
| Both teams to score | 53% | 55% | −2 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 91% | 87% | +4 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 56% | 50% | +6 |
| Sporting CP or draw | 94% | 90% | +4 |
| Sporting CP clean sheet | 45% | – | – |
| Lask Linz clean sheet | 4% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
No meetings since 2021/22No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.
Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · UEFA Champions League this season · since 19 Aug
SPORTING CP
LASK LINZ
The table
2026/27| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paris Saint Germain | 3 | +9 | 9 |
| 2 | Liverpool | 3 | +5 | 9 |
| 3 | VfB Stuttgart | 3 | +5 | 7 |
| 4 | Aston Villa | 2 | +7 | 6 |
| 5 | Barcelona | 3 | +5 | 6 |
| 6 | Manchester City | 3 | +4 | 6 |
| 7 | Sporting CP | 2 | +4 | 6 |
| 8 | Arsenal | 2 | +4 | 6 |
| 9 | Real Madrid | 2 | +2 | 6 |
| 10 | Real Betis | 2 | +2 | 6 |
| 11 | Borussia Dortmund | 3 | +1 | 6 |
| 12 | Bayern München | 2 | +5 | 4 |
| 13 | AS Roma | 3 | +3 | 4 |
| 14 | Shakhtar Donetsk | 2 | +2 | 4 |
| 15 | Atletico Madrid | 3 | +1 | 4 |
| 16 | PSV Eindhoven | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 17 | Como | 2 | +2 | 3 |
| 18 | Manchester United | 2 | +2 | 3 |
| 19 | Villarreal | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 20 | Club Brugge KV | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 21 | Lens | 2 | −1 | 3 |
| 22 | Napoli | 3 | −2 | 3 |
| 23 | RB Leipzig | 2 | −2 | 3 |
| 24 | Feyenoord | 2 | −3 | 3 |
| 25 | Sabah FA | 3 | −3 | 3 |
| 26 | Bodo/Glimt | 3 | −5 | 3 |
| 27 | AEK Athens FC | 3 | −5 | 3 |
| 28 | Fenerbahçe | 3 | −6 | 2 |
| 29 | Viking | 2 | −2 | 1 |
| 30 | Slavia Praha | 3 | −3 | 1 |
| 31 | Inter | 2 | −2 | 0 |
| 32 | Lask Linz | 2 | −4 | 0 |
| 33 | FC Porto | 3 | −4 | 0 |
| 34 | Lille | 2 | −4 | 0 |
| 35 | Galatasaray | 2 | −5 | 0 |
| 36 | Slovan Bratislava | 3 | −12 | 0 |
The competition's standings before kick-off.
Paris Saint Germain
Liverpool
VfB Stuttgart
Aston Villa
Barcelona
Manchester City
Arsenal
Real Madrid
Real Betis
Borussia Dortmund
Bayern München
AS Roma
Shakhtar Donetsk
Atletico Madrid
PSV Eindhoven
Como
Manchester United
Villarreal
Club Brugge KV
Lens
Napoli
RB Leipzig
Feyenoord
Sabah FA
Bodo/Glimt
AEK Athens FC
Fenerbahçe
Viking
Slavia Praha
Inter
FC Porto
Lille
Galatasaray
Slovan Bratislava