Shakhtar Donetsk v AEK Athens FC

1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Shakhtar Donetsk win at 36%.
2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Shakhtar Donetsk 36% before kick-off, 36% now. 0–0 · 36–28–36
3. 1′KICK-OFF Shakhtar Donetsk v AEK Athens FC
4. 18′🟨 YELLOW · 18' Lovro Majer · AEK Athens FC
5. 27′We said Shakhtar Donetsk at 36%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 11%. 0–1 · 11–22–67
6. 27′⚽ GOAL · 27' Shakhtar Donetsk 0–1 AEK Athens FC
7. 27′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 27' Shakhtar Donetsk win: 36% at kick-off, 11% now
8. 27′THE CALL SWINGS · 27' AEK Athens FC win is now our likeliest result at 67% (was Shakhtar Donetsk win 11%)
9. 28′Lovro Majer scores for AEK Athens FC on 28′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 11–22–67
10. 30′The goal count is tracking the 2.4 we expected. 0–1 · 10–22–68
11. 33′34′ and it is 1–1: Pedrinho on the scoresheet for Shakhtar Donetsk. 1–1 · 32–37–31
12. 33′⚽ GOAL · 33' Shakhtar Donetsk 1–1 AEK Athens FC
13. 33′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 33' Shakhtar Donetsk win: 36% at kick-off, 32% now
14. 33′THE CALL SWINGS · 33' Draw is now our likeliest result at 37% (was AEK Athens FC win 31%)
15. 41′🟨 YELLOW · 42' Harold Moukoudi · AEK Athens FC
16. 45′SECOND HALF Shakhtar Donetsk 1–1 AEK Athens FC
17. 47′HALF-TIME Shakhtar Donetsk 1–1 AEK Athens FC
18. 53′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 53' Shakhtar Donetsk win: 36% at kick-off, 26% now
19. 53′🟨 YELLOW · 54' Marlon Gomes · Shakhtar Donetsk
20. 56′12.0 shots for AEK Athens FC, 6.0 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 1–1 · 25–50–25
21. 59′We said Shakhtar Donetsk at 36%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 24–52–24
22. 60′🟨 YELLOW · 61' Răzvan Marin · AEK Athens FC
23. 63′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Shakhtar Donetsk · On: Isaque · Off: Pedrinho
24. 63′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Shakhtar Donetsk · On: Gleiker Mendoza · Off: Newerton
25. 63′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Shakhtar Donetsk · On: Gleiker Mendoza · Off: Newerton
26. 70′We said Shakhtar Donetsk at 36%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 18%. 1–1 · 18–63–18
27. 70′SUBSTITUTION · 71' AEK Athens FC · On: João Mário · Off: Lovro Majer
28. 70′SUBSTITUTION · 71' AEK Athens FC · On: Mijat Gaćinović · Off: Ambrósini António Cabaça Salvador
29. 73′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 73' Shakhtar Donetsk win: 36% at kick-off, 16% now
30. 78′SUBSTITUTION · 78' AEK Athens FC · On: Kaan Kairinen · Off: Milan Vitális
31. 78′SUBSTITUTION · 79' AEK Athens FC · On: Barnabás Varga · Off: Luka Jovic
32. 79′⚽ GOAL · 79' Shakhtar Donetsk 2–1 AEK Athens FC · Pedrinho
33. 80′Shakhtar Donetsk ahead on 80′ through Alberto Brignoli. 2–1. 2–1 · 89–10–1
34. 80′We said Shakhtar Donetsk at 36% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 89%. 2–1 · 89–10–1
35. 80′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 80' Shakhtar Donetsk win: 36% at kick-off, 89% now
36. 80′THE CALL SWINGS · 80' Shakhtar Donetsk win is now our likeliest result at 89% (was Draw 10%)
37. 82′We said Shakhtar Donetsk at 36% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 91%. 2–1 · 91–9–0
38. 82′3 goals already, more than the 2.4 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 91–9–0
39. 82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Shakhtar Donetsk · On: Egor Nazaryna · Off: Marlon Gomes
40. 82′SUBSTITUTION · 83' AEK Athens FC · On: Oleksandr Zubkov · Off: Răzvan Marin
41. 85′We said Shakhtar Donetsk at 36% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 100%. 3–1 · 100–0–0
42. 85′Gleiker Mendoza scores for Shakhtar Donetsk on 86′ — 3–1. 3–1 · 100–0–0
43. 85′⚽ GOAL · 85' Shakhtar Donetsk 3–1 AEK Athens FC · Alberto Brignoli
44. 85′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 85' Shakhtar Donetsk win: 36% at kick-off, 100% now
45. 87′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.4 across ninety minutes. 3–1 · 100–0–0
46. 87′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Shakhtar Donetsk · On: Luca Meirelles · Off: Kauã Elias
47. 89′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Shakhtar Donetsk · On: Lucas Ferreira · Off: Alisson
48. 90′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Shakhtar Donetsk · On: Luca Meirelles · Off: Kauã Elias
49. 90′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Shakhtar Donetsk · On: Lucas Ferreira · Off: Alisson
50. 90′🟨 YELLOW · 90' Barnabás Varga · AEK Athens FC
51. 95′3–1 at the end. Our 36% on Shakhtar Donetsk comes in. 3–1 · 100–0–0
52. FTFULL TIME Shakhtar Donetsk 3–1 AEK Athens FC
53. FTShakhtar Donetsk 3–1 AEK Athens FC · Shakhtar Donetsk win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.