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Sabah FA v Borussia Dortmund

Sabah FA
1–2Full time
Borussia Dortmund

UEFA Champions League · TUE 20 OCT · Baku Olympic Stadium

Full timeGraded 20 Oct 20:31
Sabah FA 1–2 Borussia Dortmund BORUSSIA DORTMUND WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–2 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Borussia Dortmund win70%
The market said74%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.140
The market’s Brier score0.104

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 25 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Borussia Dortmund win at 70%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Borussia Dortmund 70% before kick-off, 69% now. 0–0 · 12–18–69
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Sabah FA v Borussia Dortmund
  4. 11′Serhou Guirassy scores for Borussia Dortmund on 10′. 0–0 · 13–20–67
  5. 11′We said Borussia Dortmund at 70% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 87%. 0–1 · 4–9–87
  6. 11′⚽ GOAL · 10' Sabah FA 0–1 Borussia Dortmund · Serhou Guirassy
  7. 11′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 11' Borussia Dortmund win: 70% at kick-off, 87% now
  8. 22′🟨 YELLOW · 22' Steve Solvet · Sabah FA
  9. 30′The goal count is tracking the 3.2 we expected. 0–1 · 3–10–86
  10. 39′We said Borussia Dortmund at 70%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 57%. 1–1 · 14–29–57
  11. 39′⚽ GOAL · 39' Sabah FA 1–1 Borussia Dortmund
  12. 39′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 39' Borussia Dortmund win: 70% at kick-off, 57% now
  13. 40′39′: Aden McCarthy on the scoresheet for Sabah FA, making it 1–1. 1–1 · 14–29–57
  14. 41′Borussia Dortmund have had 11 attempts to 5 and it is still 1–1. 1–1 · 14–30–56
  15. 45′We said Borussia Dortmund at 70%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 54%. 1–1 · 14–32–54
  16. 45′HALF-TIME Sabah FA 1–1 Borussia Dortmund
  17. 45′SECOND HALF Sabah FA 1–1 Borussia Dortmund
  18. 49′12 shots for Borussia Dortmund, 7 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 1–1 · 14–34–52
  19. 51′🟨 YELLOW · 49' Ivan Lepinjica · Sabah FA
  20. 52′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 52' Borussia Dortmund win: 70% at kick-off, 50% now
  21. 53′⚽ GOAL · 53' Sabah FA 1–2 Borussia Dortmund
  22. 53′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 53' Borussia Dortmund win: 70% at kick-off, 86% now
  23. 54′Borussia Dortmund ahead on 53′ through Serhou Guirassy. 1–2. 1–2 · 2–11–86
  24. 58′🟨 YELLOW · 57' Aden McCarthy · Sabah FA
  25. 66′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Sabah FA · On: Aleksey Isaev · Off: Du Queiroz
  26. 66′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Sabah FA · On: Patrick Orphe Mbina · Off: Kaheem Parris
  27. 72′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Borussia Dortmund · On: Marcel Sabitzer · Off: Carney Chukwuemeka
  28. 72′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Borussia Dortmund · On: Jobe Bellingham · Off: Felix Nmecha
  29. 72′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Borussia Dortmund · On: Kouakou Joane Gadou · Off: Ramy Bensebaini
  30. 73′We said Borussia Dortmund at 70% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 1–2 · 1–9–90
  31. 73′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 73' Borussia Dortmund win: 70% at kick-off, 90% now
  32. 78′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Borussia Dortmund · On: Maximilian Beier · Off: Daniel Svensson
  33. 82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Sabah FA · On: Abdulakh khaybulaev · Off: Umarali Rakhmonaliev
  34. 82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Sabah FA · On: Christian Nwachukwu · Off: Joy Lance Mickels
  35. 84′We said Borussia Dortmund at 70% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 1–2 · 0–5–95
  36. 90′🟨 YELLOW · 89' Akim Zedadka · Sabah FA
  37. 92′SUBSTITUTION · 90+1' Borussia Dortmund · On: Ethan Nwaneri · Off: Fábio Silva
  38. FTFULL TIME Sabah FA 1–2 Borussia Dortmund
  39. FTSabah FA 1–2 Borussia Dortmund · Borussia Dortmund win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 0–2 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Borussia Dortmund are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Sabah FA 12%, draw 18%, Borussia Dortmund 70%. Over 2.5 goals 63%, both teams to score 53%.

The AI’s read on Sabah FA v Borussia DortmundBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 14 Oct 04:28 · locked at kick-off

Sabah FA win12%
Draw18%
Borussia Dortmund win70%

Kick-offTUE 20 OCT · 17:45

RoundLeague stage · matchday 3

VenueBaku Olympic Stadium

RefereeJavier Alberola Rojas

Line-ups

Sabah FA

4-2-3-1

Borussia Dortmund

3-4-2-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Sabah FA

Borussia Dortmund

3Days since last match3

Last match: 17 Oct · Premyer Liqa

Last match: 17 Oct · the German Bundesliga

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
18Borussia Dortmund203
22Sabah FA2−23

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Sabah FA

4-2-3-1

92 S. Pokatilov

80 A. Zedadka

3 S. Solvet

4 A. McCarthy

27 T. Puchacz

7 U. Rahmonaliyev

13 I. Lepinjica

11 K. Parris

37 Du Queiroz

21 V. Simić

20 J. Mickels

Coach · V. Dambrauskas

Substitutes

88 · Rodrigo Fernandes

10 · A. Isaev

5 · R. Daşdəmirov

33 · Erivaldo Almeida

6 · A. Xaybulayev

99 · P. Mbina

94 · R. Mirzəmmədov

17 · T. Mütəllimov

8 · C. Nwachukwu

1 · A. Ramazanov

34 · X. Severina

9 · K. Aliyev

Borussia Dortmund

3-4-2-1

1 G. Kobel

3 W. Anton

4 N. Schlotterbeck

5 R. Bensebaïni

26 J. Ryerson

8 F. Nmecha

25 J. Veerman

24 D. Svensson

17 C. Chukwuemeka

21 Fábio Silva

9 S. Guirassy

Coach · N. Kovač

Substitutes

14 · M. Beier

7 · J. Bellingham

30 · P. Drewes

22 · Kouakou Joane Gadou

40 · S. Inacio

39 · F. Mané

33 · A. Meyer

18 · E. Nwaneri

49 · L. Reggiani

20 · M. Sabitzer

41 · M. Albert

44 · E. de Pina Duarte dos Santos

Our number · borussia dortmund winFirst published 14 Oct 04:28 · updated 18 Oct 00:22 · locked at kick-off
70% The market74%
Us70%
Market74%

We make Borussia Dortmund a 70% chance to win. The market has them at 74%. We are 4 points less confident than the market. The model expects 0.9–2.3.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Sabah FA v Borussia Dortmund0.89 – 2.35
Form · last six in UEFA Champions League this season · since 5 AugW3 D0 L3 · W1 D0 L1
Table places · points 3 v 322 v 18
The market · Borussia Dortmund win74% · ours 70%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
65%70%75%80% 14 OCT 04:2820 OCT 17:13
Our probability · Borussia Dortmund win The market, margin stripped

Published at 73%, 70% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 74% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Sabah FA win12%10%+2
Draw18%16%+2
Borussia Dortmund win70%74%−4
Over 2.5 goals63%65%−2
Both teams to score53%52%+1
Over 1.5 goals84%83%+1
Over 3.5 goals40%43%−3
Sabah FA or draw30%26%+4
Sabah FA clean sheet10%––
Borussia Dortmund clean sheet41%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–2 at 10.9%
0123450 4.2 9.0 10.9 8.5 5.0 2.31 3.2 8.5 9.6 7.5 4.4 2.12 3.6 4.3 3.3 3 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Sabah FA down, Borussia Dortmund across0–5 goals a side shown (96.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in UEFA Champions League this season · since 5 Aug

SABAH FA

LWLWLW1–2 · 4–0 · 1–2 · 3–2 · 0–4 · 2–0

BORUSSIA DORTMUND

WL3–2 · 0–1

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Paris Saint Germain2+76
2Barcelona2+76
3Aston Villa2+76
4VfB Stuttgart2+56
5Liverpool2+46
6Sporting CP2+46
7Arsenal2+46
8Real Madrid2+26
9Real Betis2+26
10Bayern München2+54
11Shakhtar Donetsk2+24
12Como2+23
13Manchester United2+23
14Villarreal2+13
15Atletico Madrid2+13
16Club Brugge KV203
17Manchester City203
18Borussia Dortmund203
19Lens2−13
20AEK Athens FC2−13
21RB Leipzig2−23
22Sabah FA2−23
23Feyenoord2−33
24Bodo/Glimt2−43
25AS Roma2−11
26PSV Eindhoven2−11
27Viking2−21
28Fenerbahçe2−61
29Inter2−20
30FC Porto2−30
31Slavia Praha2−30
32Napoli2−30
33Lask Linz2−40
34Lille2−40
35Galatasaray2−50
36Slovan Bratislava2−80

The competition's standings before kick-off.