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Sabah FA v Borussia Dortmund
Sabah FA
Borussia DortmundUEFA Champions League · TUE 20 OCT · Baku Olympic Stadium
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said Borussia Dortmund win at 70%.
- 1′Little has changed for our model: Borussia Dortmund 70% before kick-off, 69% now. 0–0 · 12–18–69
- 1′KICK-OFF Sabah FA v Borussia Dortmund
- 11′Serhou Guirassy scores for Borussia Dortmund on 10′. 0–0 · 13–20–67
- 11′We said Borussia Dortmund at 70% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 87%. 0–1 · 4–9–87
- 11′⚽ GOAL · 10' Sabah FA 0–1 Borussia Dortmund · Serhou Guirassy
- 11′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 11' Borussia Dortmund win: 70% at kick-off, 87% now
- 22′🟨 YELLOW · 22' Steve Solvet · Sabah FA
- 30′The goal count is tracking the 3.2 we expected. 0–1 · 3–10–86
- 39′We said Borussia Dortmund at 70%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 57%. 1–1 · 14–29–57
- 39′⚽ GOAL · 39' Sabah FA 1–1 Borussia Dortmund
- 39′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 39' Borussia Dortmund win: 70% at kick-off, 57% now
- 40′39′: Aden McCarthy on the scoresheet for Sabah FA, making it 1–1. 1–1 · 14–29–57
- 41′Borussia Dortmund have had 11 attempts to 5 and it is still 1–1. 1–1 · 14–30–56
- 45′We said Borussia Dortmund at 70%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 54%. 1–1 · 14–32–54
- 45′HALF-TIME Sabah FA 1–1 Borussia Dortmund
- 45′SECOND HALF Sabah FA 1–1 Borussia Dortmund
- 49′12 shots for Borussia Dortmund, 7 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 1–1 · 14–34–52
- 51′🟨 YELLOW · 49' Ivan Lepinjica · Sabah FA
- 52′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 52' Borussia Dortmund win: 70% at kick-off, 50% now
- 53′⚽ GOAL · 53' Sabah FA 1–2 Borussia Dortmund
- 53′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 53' Borussia Dortmund win: 70% at kick-off, 86% now
- 54′Borussia Dortmund ahead on 53′ through Serhou Guirassy. 1–2. 1–2 · 2–11–86
- 58′🟨 YELLOW · 57' Aden McCarthy · Sabah FA
- 66′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Sabah FA · On: Aleksey Isaev · Off: Du Queiroz
- 66′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Sabah FA · On: Patrick Orphe Mbina · Off: Kaheem Parris
- 72′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Borussia Dortmund · On: Marcel Sabitzer · Off: Carney Chukwuemeka
- 72′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Borussia Dortmund · On: Jobe Bellingham · Off: Felix Nmecha
- 72′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Borussia Dortmund · On: Kouakou Joane Gadou · Off: Ramy Bensebaini
- 73′We said Borussia Dortmund at 70% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 1–2 · 1–9–90
- 73′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 73' Borussia Dortmund win: 70% at kick-off, 90% now
- 78′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Borussia Dortmund · On: Maximilian Beier · Off: Daniel Svensson
- 82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Sabah FA · On: Abdulakh khaybulaev · Off: Umarali Rakhmonaliev
- 82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Sabah FA · On: Christian Nwachukwu · Off: Joy Lance Mickels
- 84′We said Borussia Dortmund at 70% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 1–2 · 0–5–95
- 90′🟨 YELLOW · 89' Akim Zedadka · Sabah FA
- 92′SUBSTITUTION · 90+1' Borussia Dortmund · On: Ethan Nwaneri · Off: Fábio Silva
- FTFULL TIME Sabah FA 1–2 Borussia Dortmund
- FTSabah FA 1–2 Borussia Dortmund · Borussia Dortmund win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 0–2 exactly: wrong
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
Borussia Dortmund are clear favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: Sabah FA 12%, draw 18%, Borussia Dortmund 70%. Over 2.5 goals 63%, both teams to score 53%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 14 Oct 04:28 · locked at kick-off
Sabah FA win12%
Borussia Dortmund win70%Kick-offTUE 20 OCT · 17:45
RoundLeague stage · matchday 3
VenueBaku Olympic Stadium
RefereeJavier Alberola Rojas
Match timeline
All events
Sabah FAMIN
Borussia DortmundEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Sabah FA
4-2-3-1
Borussia Dortmund
3-4-2-1
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Sabah FA
Borussia Dortmund
Last match: 17 Oct · Premyer Liqa
Last match: 17 Oct · the German Bundesliga
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.
Line-ups
Sabah FA
4-2-3-1
92 S. Pokatilov
80 A. Zedadka
3 S. Solvet
4 A. McCarthy
27 T. Puchacz
7 U. Rahmonaliyev
13 I. Lepinjica
11 K. Parris
37 Du Queiroz
21 V. Simić
20 J. Mickels
Coach · V. Dambrauskas
Substitutes
88 · Rodrigo Fernandes
10 · A. Isaev
5 · R. Daşdəmirov
33 · Erivaldo Almeida
6 · A. Xaybulayev
99 · P. Mbina
94 · R. Mirzəmmədov
17 · T. Mütəllimov
8 · C. Nwachukwu
1 · A. Ramazanov
34 · X. Severina
9 · K. Aliyev
Borussia Dortmund
3-4-2-1
1 G. Kobel
3 W. Anton
4 N. Schlotterbeck
5 R. Bensebaïni
26 J. Ryerson
8 F. Nmecha
25 J. Veerman
24 D. Svensson
17 C. Chukwuemeka
21 Fábio Silva
9 S. Guirassy
Coach · N. Kovač
Substitutes
14 · M. Beier
7 · J. Bellingham
30 · P. Drewes
22 · Kouakou Joane Gadou
40 · S. Inacio
39 · F. Mané
33 · A. Meyer
18 · E. Nwaneri
49 · L. Reggiani
20 · M. Sabitzer
41 · M. Albert
44 · E. de Pina Duarte dos Santos
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Sabah FA
4-2-3-1
92 S. Pokatilov
80 A. Zedadka
3 S. Solvet
4 A. McCarthy
27 T. Puchacz
7 U. Rahmonaliyev
13 I. Lepinjica
11 K. Parris
37 Du Queiroz
21 V. Simić
20 J. Mickels
Coach · V. Dambrauskas
Substitutes
88 · Rodrigo Fernandes
10 · A. Isaev
5 · R. Daşdəmirov
33 · Erivaldo Almeida
6 · A. Xaybulayev
99 · P. Mbina
94 · R. Mirzəmmədov
17 · T. Mütəllimov
8 · C. Nwachukwu
1 · A. Ramazanov
34 · X. Severina
9 · K. Aliyev
Borussia Dortmund
3-4-2-1
1 G. Kobel
3 W. Anton
4 N. Schlotterbeck
5 R. Bensebaïni
26 J. Ryerson
8 F. Nmecha
25 J. Veerman
24 D. Svensson
17 C. Chukwuemeka
21 Fábio Silva
9 S. Guirassy
Coach · N. Kovač
Substitutes
14 · M. Beier
7 · J. Bellingham
30 · P. Drewes
22 · Kouakou Joane Gadou
40 · S. Inacio
39 · F. Mané
33 · A. Meyer
18 · E. Nwaneri
49 · L. Reggiani
20 · M. Sabitzer
41 · M. Albert
44 · E. de Pina Duarte dos Santos
We make Borussia Dortmund a 70% chance to win. The market has them at 74%. We are 4 points less confident than the market. The model expects 0.9–2.3.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Published at 73%, 70% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 74% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sabah FA win | 12% | 10% | +2 |
| Draw | 18% | 16% | +2 |
| Borussia Dortmund win | 70% | 74% | −4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% | 65% | −2 |
| Both teams to score | 53% | 52% | +1 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 84% | 83% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 40% | 43% | −3 |
| Sabah FA or draw | 30% | 26% | +4 |
| Sabah FA clean sheet | 10% | – | – |
| Borussia Dortmund clean sheet | 41% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
No meetings since 2021/22No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.
Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · last six in UEFA Champions League this season · since 5 Aug
SABAH FA
BORUSSIA DORTMUND
The table
2026/27| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paris Saint Germain | 2 | +7 | 6 |
| 2 | Barcelona | 2 | +7 | 6 |
| 3 | Aston Villa | 2 | +7 | 6 |
| 4 | VfB Stuttgart | 2 | +5 | 6 |
| 5 | Liverpool | 2 | +4 | 6 |
| 6 | Sporting CP | 2 | +4 | 6 |
| 7 | Arsenal | 2 | +4 | 6 |
| 8 | Real Madrid | 2 | +2 | 6 |
| 9 | Real Betis | 2 | +2 | 6 |
| 10 | Bayern München | 2 | +5 | 4 |
| 11 | Shakhtar Donetsk | 2 | +2 | 4 |
| 12 | Como | 2 | +2 | 3 |
| 13 | Manchester United | 2 | +2 | 3 |
| 14 | Villarreal | 2 | +1 | 3 |
| 15 | Atletico Madrid | 2 | +1 | 3 |
| 16 | Club Brugge KV | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 17 | Manchester City | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 18 | Borussia Dortmund | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 19 | Lens | 2 | −1 | 3 |
| 20 | AEK Athens FC | 2 | −1 | 3 |
| 21 | RB Leipzig | 2 | −2 | 3 |
| 22 | Sabah FA | 2 | −2 | 3 |
| 23 | Feyenoord | 2 | −3 | 3 |
| 24 | Bodo/Glimt | 2 | −4 | 3 |
| 25 | AS Roma | 2 | −1 | 1 |
| 26 | PSV Eindhoven | 2 | −1 | 1 |
| 27 | Viking | 2 | −2 | 1 |
| 28 | Fenerbahçe | 2 | −6 | 1 |
| 29 | Inter | 2 | −2 | 0 |
| 30 | FC Porto | 2 | −3 | 0 |
| 31 | Slavia Praha | 2 | −3 | 0 |
| 32 | Napoli | 2 | −3 | 0 |
| 33 | Lask Linz | 2 | −4 | 0 |
| 34 | Lille | 2 | −4 | 0 |
| 35 | Galatasaray | 2 | −5 | 0 |
| 36 | Slovan Bratislava | 2 | −8 | 0 |
The competition's standings before kick-off.
Paris Saint Germain
Barcelona
Aston Villa
VfB Stuttgart
Liverpool
Sporting CP
Arsenal
Real Madrid
Real Betis
Bayern München
Shakhtar Donetsk
Como
Manchester United
Villarreal
Atletico Madrid
Club Brugge KV
Manchester City
Lens
AEK Athens FC
RB Leipzig
Feyenoord
Bodo/Glimt
AS Roma
PSV Eindhoven
Viking
Fenerbahçe
Inter
FC Porto
Slavia Praha
Napoli
Lask Linz
Lille
Galatasaray
Slovan Bratislava