Real Madrid v RB Leipzig prediction · UEFA Champions League

Full timeGraded 21 Oct 22:30

Real Madrid 4–1 RB Leipzig REAL MADRID WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Real Madrid win~~67%

~~The market said~~78%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.164

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.075

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 25 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Real Madrid win at 67%.
1′Much as we predicted: Real Madrid was 67% before kick-off and our model makes it 67% now. 0–0 · 67–18–15
1′KICK-OFF Real Madrid v RB Leipzig
35′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 35' Real Madrid win: 67% at kick-off, 57% now
40′We said Real Madrid at 67%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 55%. 0–0 · 55–28–17
43′We published Real Madrid at 67%. Our model now makes it 83%. 1–0 · 83–13–4
43′⚽ GOAL · 43' Real Madrid 1–0 RB Leipzig
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 43' Real Madrid win: 67% at kick-off, 83% now
44′Bernardo Silva scores for Real Madrid on 44′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 83–13–4
45′SECOND HALF Real Madrid 1–0 RB Leipzig
46′Bernardo Silva scores for Real Madrid on 43′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 83–13–4
46′HALF-TIME Real Madrid 1–0 RB Leipzig
52′We published Real Madrid at 67%. Our model now makes it 96%. 2–0 · 96–3–1
52′⚽ GOAL · 52' Real Madrid 2–0 RB Leipzig
52′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 52' Real Madrid win: 67% at kick-off, 96% now
53′52′: Kylian Mbappé on the scoresheet for Real Madrid, making it 2–0. 2–0 · 97–3–1
53′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 53' Real Madrid win: 67% at kick-off, 97% now
54′Goals are coming at about the 3.7 we expected. 2–0 · 97–3–0
64′SUBSTITUTION · 63' RB Leipzig · On: Andrija Maksimović · Off: Brajan Gruda
64′SUBSTITUTION · 64' RB Leipzig · On: Rocco Reitz · Off: Neil El Aynaoui
69′🟨 YELLOW · 68' Álvaro Fernández Carreras · Real Madrid
71′🟨 YELLOW · 70' Rocco Reitz · RB Leipzig
71′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Real Madrid · On: Yan Diomande · Off: Vinícius
72′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Real Madrid · On: Marc Cucurella · Off: Álvaro Fernández Carreras
74′SUBSTITUTION · 73' RB Leipzig · On: Max Finkgräfe · Off: David Raum
74′SUBSTITUTION · 73' RB Leipzig · On: Tidiam Gomis · Off: Antonio Nusa
79′SUBSTITUTION · 78' RB Leipzig · On: Christoph Baumgartner · Off: Christopher Nkunku
79′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Real Madrid · On: Brahim Díaz · Off: Arda Güler
81′We published Real Madrid at 67%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
83′⚽ GOAL · 83' Real Madrid 3–0 RB Leipzig
84′Real Madrid ahead on 83′ through Kylian Mbappé. 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
84′4 goals already, more than the 3.7 we expected for the whole match. 3–1 · 100–0–0
84′⚽ GOAL · 84' Real Madrid 3–1 RB Leipzig
86′Tidiam Gomis scores for RB Leipzig on 85′ — 3–1. 3–1 · 100–0–0
87′That is 5, and we only asked for 3.7 across ninety minutes. 4–1 · 100–0–0
87′⚽ GOAL · 87' Real Madrid 4–1 RB Leipzig
88′87′: Yan Diomande on the scoresheet for Real Madrid, making it 4–1. 4–1 · 100–0–0
89′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Real Madrid · On: Carlos Espí · Off: Kylian Mbappé
89′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Real Madrid · On: Endrick Felipe Moreira de Sousa · Off: Jude Bellingham
FTFULL TIME Real Madrid 4–1 RB Leipzig
FTReal Madrid 4–1 RB Leipzig · Real Madrid win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Real Madrid are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Real Madrid 67%, draw 18%, RB Leipzig 15%. Over 2.5 goals 71%, both teams to score 64%.

The AI’s read on Real Madrid v RB LeipzigBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 15 Oct 04:33 · locked at kick-off

Real Madrid win67%

Draw18%

RB Leipzig win15%

Kick-offWED 21 OCT · 20:00

RoundLeague stage · matchday 3

VenueSantiago Bernabéu Stadium

RefereeIstvan Kovacs

Line-ups

Real Madrid

4-2-3-1

RB Leipzig

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Real Madrid

RB Leipzig

3Days since last match4

Last match: 18 Oct · La Liga

Last match: 17 Oct · the German Bundesliga

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Real Madrid	2	+2	6
23	RB Leipzig	2	−2	3

In the news

from the pressAll ›

Aston Villa v Viking, Real Madrid v RB Leipzig and more: Champions League – liveThe Guardian · 21 Oct 18:44 · Aston Villa, Viking, Real Madrid, RB Leipzig

Christopher Nkunku ‘can imagine’ staying at RB LeipzigGet German Football News · 21 Oct 12:31 · RB Leipzig PODCAST | Matchday 6 review – Bayern Munich put six past RB Leipzig, Elversberg’s seven-goal thriller, plus moreGet German Football News · 21 Oct 07:52 · Bayern München, RB Leipzig D’Amico: ‘Roma had 80 spectacular minutes with Real Madrid, will try’ for EndrickFootball Italia · 20 Oct 19:46 · AS Roma, Real Madrid

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Real Madrid

4-2-3-1

1 T. Courtois

8 F. Valverde

22 A. Rüdiger

4 D. Huijsen

18 Álvaro Fernández

6 E. Camavinga

20 Bernardo Silva

15 A. Güler

5 J. Bellingham

7 Vinícius Júnior

10 Kylian Mbappé

Coach · José Mourinho

Substitutes

12 · T. Alexander-Arnold

21 · Brahim Díaz

25 · Y. Diomande

24 · D. Dumfries

17 · Marc Cucurella

3 · Éder Militão

9 · Endrick

19 · Carlos Espí

16 · I. Konaté

13 · A. Lunin

27 · Thiago Pitarch

14 · A. Tchouaméni

RB Leipzig

4-2-3-1

26 M. Vandevoordt

17 R. Baku

4 W. Orbán

23 C. Lukeba

22 D. Raum

13 N. Seiwald

21 N. El Aynaoui

10 B. Gruda

28 C. Nkunku

7 A. Nusa

40 Rômulo

Coach · M. Demichelis

Substitutes

14 · C. Baumgartner

3 · M. Estève

35 · Max Finkgräfe

27 · T. Gomis

39 · B. Henrichs

16 · L. Klostermann

2 · A. Koné

30 · A. Maksimović

1 · Ø. Nyland

20 · R. Reitz

11 · J. Bakayoko

6 · E. Banzuzi

Our number · real madrid winFirst published 15 Oct 04:33 · updated 18 Oct 00:22 · locked at kick-off

67% The market78%

Us67%

~~Market~~78%

We make Real Madrid a 67% chance to win. The market has them at 78%. We are 11 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.5–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Real Madrid v RB Leipzig~~2.54 – 1.16

~~Form · UEFA Champions League this season · since 8 Sept~~W2 D0 L0 · W1 D0 L1

~~Table places · points 6 v 3~~9 v 23

~~The market · Real Madrid win~~78% · ours 67%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Real Madrid win The market, margin stripped

Published at 65%, 67% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 78% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Real Madrid win	67%	78%	−11
Draw	18%	13%	+5
RB Leipzig win	15%	9%	+6
Over 2.5 goals	71%	81%	−10
Both teams to score	64%	66%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	89%	91%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	51%	65%	−14
Real Madrid or draw	85%	91%	−6
Real Madrid clean sheet	31%	–	–
RB Leipzig clean sheet	8%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 9.3%

0123450 2.7 2.6 1 6.0 7.5 4.2 2 8.0 9.3 5.4 2.1 3 6.7 7.8 4.5 4 4.3 5.0 2.9 5 2.2 2.5

under 2% 5% 12%+Real Madrid down, RB Leipzig across0–5 goals a side shown (95.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates the clubs of 638 leagues on one scale, from the 409,489 league, cup and continental matches of the last three years up to 20 Oct 2026: each club against its own league, and the leagues against each other through the matches between them, weighting recent matches more.

The two leagues

Real Madrid play in La Liga, RB Leipzig in the German Bundesliga.

Venue

Allows for home advantage: Real Madrid are at home.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 4 went over 2.5.

What the model expects

2.54 goals for Real Madrid, 1.16 for RB Leipzig. Most likely score 2–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 21 Oct 19:30. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 4

~~Both scored~~2 of 4

~~Last meetings~~REA 1–1 RBL · RBL 0–1 REA · RBL 3–2 REA · REA 2–0 RBL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · UEFA Champions League this season · since 8 Sept

REAL MADRID

WW2–1 · 4–3

RB LEIPZIG

LW1–4 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Paris Saint Germain	3	+9	9
2	Liverpool	3	+5	9
3	VfB Stuttgart	3	+5	7
4	Aston Villa	2	+7	6
5	Barcelona	3	+5	6
6	Manchester City	3	+4	6
7	Sporting CP	2	+4	6
8	Arsenal	2	+4	6
9	Real Madrid	2	+2	6
10	Real Betis	2	+2	6
11	Borussia Dortmund	3	+1	6
12	Bayern München	2	+5	4
13	AS Roma	3	+3	4
14	Shakhtar Donetsk	2	+2	4
15	Atletico Madrid	3	+1	4
16	PSV Eindhoven	3	0	4
17	Como	2	+2	3
18	Manchester United	2	+2	3
19	Villarreal	3	0	3
20	Club Brugge KV	2	0	3
21	Lens	2	−1	3
22	Napoli	3	−2	3
23	RB Leipzig	2	−2	3
24	Feyenoord	2	−3	3
25	Sabah FA	3	−3	3
26	Bodo/Glimt	3	−5	3
27	AEK Athens FC	3	−5	3
28	Fenerbahçe	3	−6	2
29	Viking	2	−2	1
30	Slavia Praha	3	−3	1
31	Inter	2	−2	0
32	Lask Linz	2	−4	0
33	FC Porto	3	−4	0
34	Lille	2	−4	0
35	Galatasaray	2	−5	0
36	Slovan Bratislava	3	−12	0