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Real Betis v Feyenoord

Real Betis
1–0Full time
Feyenoord

UEFA Champions League · WED 21 OCT · Estadio de la Cartuja

Full timeGraded 21 Oct 22:30
Real Betis 1–0 Feyenoord REAL BETIS WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Real Betis win55%
The market said58%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.310
The market’s Brier score0.266

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 23 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Real Betis win at 55%.
  2. 2′KICK-OFF Real Betis v Feyenoord
  3. 3′Much as we predicted: Real Betis was 55% before kick-off and our model makes it 54% now. 0–0 · 54–22–24
  4. 15′🟨 YELLOW · 14' Mika Mármol · Feyenoord
  5. 33′Real Betis have had 8 attempts to 1 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 48–29–24
  6. 41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Real Betis win: 55% at kick-off, 45% now
  7. 45′SECOND HALF Real Betis 0–0 Feyenoord
  8. 46′We said Real Betis at 55%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 43%. 0–0 · 43–34–23
  9. 46′HALF-TIME Real Betis 0–0 Feyenoord
  10. 52′Real Betis have had 12 attempts to 6 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 41–37–22
  11. 53′🟨 YELLOW · 52' Charles Vanhoutte · Feyenoord
  12. 55′We said Real Betis at 55%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 39%. 0–0 · 39–39–21
  13. 56′We expected about 3.4 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 39–40–21
  14. 59′We published Real Betis at 55%. Our model now makes it 79%. 1–0 · 79–16–4
  15. 59′THE CALL SWINGS · 59' Draw is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Real Betis win 39%)
  16. 59′⚽ GOAL · 59' Real Betis 1–0 Feyenoord
  17. 59′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 59' Real Betis win: 55% at kick-off, 79% now
  18. 59′THE CALL SWINGS · 59' Real Betis win is now our likeliest result at 79% (was Draw 42%)
  19. 60′59′: Isco on the scoresheet for Real Betis, making it 1–0. 1–0 · 80–16–4
  20. 61′We published Real Betis at 55%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–0 · 80–16–4
  21. 64′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Real Betis · On: Dani Ceballos · Off: Pablo Fornals
  22. 64′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Real Betis · On: Rodrigo Riquelme · Off: Antony Matheus dos Santos
  23. 74′We published Real Betis at 55%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–0 · 85–13–2
  24. 74′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 74' Real Betis win: 55% at kick-off, 85% now
  25. 80′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Feyenoord · On: Tsuyoshi Watanabe · Off: Jeremiah St. Juste
  26. 81′We published Real Betis at 55%. Our model now makes it 90%. 1–0 · 90–9–1
  27. 81′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Real Betis · On: Giovani Lo Celso · Off: Isco
  28. 81′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Feyenoord · On: Gaoussou Kyassou Diarra · Off: Charles Vanhoutte
  29. 81′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Real Betis · On: Nelson Deossa · Off: Troy Parrott
  30. 83′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Real Betis · On: Ángel Ortiz · Off: Héctor Bellerín
  31. 83′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Feyenoord · On: Sem Steijn · Off: Luciano Valente
  32. 87′🟨 YELLOW · 86' Rodrigo Riquelme · Real Betis
  33. 88′We published Real Betis at 55%. Our model now makes it 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
  34. 88′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 88' Real Betis win: 55% at kick-off, 95% now
  35. 93′SUBSTITUTION · 90+2' Feyenoord · On: Tobias van den Elshout · Off: Oussama Targhalline
  36. 94′Full time, 1–0. We called Real Betis at 55% — that one lands. 1–0 · 100–0–0
  37. FTFULL TIME Real Betis 1–0 Feyenoord
  38. FTReal Betis 1–0 Feyenoord · Real Betis win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Real Betis are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Real Betis 55%, draw 22%, Feyenoord 24%. Over 2.5 goals 66%, both teams to score 64%.

The AI’s read on Real Betis v FeyenoordBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 15 Oct 04:33 · locked at kick-off

Real Betis win55%
Draw22%
Feyenoord win24%

Kick-offWED 21 OCT · 20:00

RoundLeague stage · matchday 3

VenueEstadio de la Cartuja

RefereeSimone Sozza

Line-ups

Real Betis

4-2-3-1

Feyenoord

4-3-3

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Real Betis

Feyenoord

4Days since last match4

Last match: 17 Oct · La Liga

Last match: 17 Oct · Eredivisie

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
10Real Betis2+26
24Feyenoord2−33

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Real Betis

4-2-3-1

1 Álvaro Vallés

2 Héctor Bellerín

5 Marc Bartra

4 Natan

11 Fran García

8 Pablo Fornals

21 Marc Roca

7 Antony

22 Isco

10 A. Ezzalzouli

19 T. Parrott

Coach · M. Pellegrini

Substitutes

25 · Dani Ceballos

13 · Diego Conde

18 · N. Deossa

15 · Álvaro Fidalgo

16 · V. Gómez

6 · F. Bernal

3 · Diego Llorente

20 · G. Lo Celso

27 · J. A. Morante

12 · Ángel Ortiz

17 · Rodrigo Riquelme

24 · Aitor Ruibal

Feyenoord

4-3-3

1 T. Ernst

26 G. Read

6 J. St. Juste

35 Mika Màrmol

16 Javi López

8 G. Zechiël

34 C. Vanhoutte

28 O. Targhalline

23 A. Hadj-Moussa

19 Nacho Ferri

10 L. Valente

Coach · G. van Bronckhorst

Substitutes

32 · T. Wessels

4 · T. Watanabe

22 · T. van den Elshout

14 · S. Steijn

57 · J. Schaken

24 · T. Kraaijeveld

33 · F. Kastenmeier

27 · G. Diarra

20 · M. Deijl

39 · L. Bossin

11 · Gonçalo Borges

Our number · real betis winFirst published 15 Oct 04:33 · locked at kick-off
55% The market58%
Us55%
Market58%

We make Real Betis a 55% chance to win. The market has them at 58%. We are 3 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.1–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Real Betis v Feyenoord2.07 – 1.31
Form · UEFA Champions League this season · since 8 SeptW2 D0 L0 · W1 D0 L1
Table places · points 6 v 310 v 24
The market · Real Betis win58% · ours 55%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
50%55%60%65% 15 OCT 04:3321 OCT 19:43
Our probability · Real Betis win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 58% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Real Betis win55%58%−3
Draw22%21%+1
Feyenoord win24%21%+3
Over 2.5 goals66%70%−4
Both teams to score64%67%−3
Over 1.5 goals85%86%−1
Over 3.5 goals44%50%−6
Real Betis or draw76%79%−3
Real Betis clean sheet27%––
Feyenoord clean sheet13%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 9.6%
0123450 3.7 4.2 2.9 1 6.8 9.6 6.1 2.6 2 7.3 9.6 6.3 2.7 3 5.0 6.6 4.3 4 2.6 3.4 2.2 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Real Betis down, Feyenoord across0–5 goals a side shown (97.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2021/22
Goals a meeting3.00
Over 2.51 of 1
Both scored1 of 1
Last meetingsREA 2–1 FEY

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · UEFA Champions League this season · since 8 Sept

REAL BETIS

WW3–2 · 3–2

FEYENOORD

LW1–5 · 3–2

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Paris Saint Germain3+99
2Liverpool3+59
3VfB Stuttgart3+57
4Aston Villa2+76
5Barcelona3+56
6Manchester City3+46
7Sporting CP2+46
8Arsenal2+46
9Real Madrid2+26
10Real Betis2+26
11Borussia Dortmund3+16
12Bayern München2+54
13AS Roma3+34
14Shakhtar Donetsk2+24
15Atletico Madrid3+14
16PSV Eindhoven304
17Como2+23
18Manchester United2+23
19Villarreal303
20Club Brugge KV203
21Lens2−13
22Napoli3−23
23RB Leipzig2−23
24Feyenoord2−33
25Sabah FA3−33
26Bodo/Glimt3−53
27AEK Athens FC3−53
28Fenerbahçe3−62
29Viking2−21
30Slavia Praha3−31
31Inter2−20
32Lask Linz2−40
33FC Porto3−40
34Lille2−40
35Galatasaray2−50
36Slovan Bratislava3−120

The competition's standings before kick-off.