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RB Leipzig v PSV Eindhoven

RB Leipzig

1–0Full time

PSV Eindhoven

UEFA Champions League · TUE 13 OCT · Leipzig Red Bull Arena

Full timeGraded 13 Oct 22:30

RB Leipzig 1–0 PSV Eindhoven RB LEIPZIG WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGOVER 3.5 · WRONG2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said RB Leipzig win~~52%

~~The market said~~61%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.347

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.226

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 29 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said RB Leipzig win at 52%.
1′Little has changed for our model: RB Leipzig 52% before kick-off, 52% now. 0–0 · 52–20–28
1′KICK-OFF RB Leipzig v PSV Eindhoven
20′PENALTY MISSED · 19' Ivan Perišić · PSV Eindhoven
25′19′ and it is 0–0: Ivan Perišić on the scoresheet for PSV Eindhoven. 0–0 · 48–24–28
44′🟨 YELLOW · 43' Sergiño Dest · PSV Eindhoven
45′10.0 shots for RB Leipzig, 5.0 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 0–0 · 43–30–26
45′HALF-TIME RB Leipzig 0–0 PSV Eindhoven
46′SECOND HALF RB Leipzig 0–0 PSV Eindhoven
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 48' RB Leipzig win: 52% at kick-off, 42% now
62′SUBSTITUTION · 62' RB Leipzig · On: Tidiam Gomis · Off: Rômulo José Cardoso da Cruz Corrected
65′SUBSTITUTION · 61' RB Leipzig · On: Tidiam Gomis · Off: Rômulo José Cardoso da Cruz Corrected
74′We said RB Leipzig at 52%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 27%. 0–0 · 27–55–18
75′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 75' RB Leipzig win: 52% at kick-off, 27% now
75′THE CALL SWINGS · 75' Draw is now our likeliest result at 55% (was RB Leipzig win 27%)
75′⚽ GOAL · 75' RB Leipzig 1–0 PSV Eindhoven
76′75′ and it is 1–0: Brajan Gruda on the scoresheet for RB Leipzig. 1–0 · 83–15–2
76′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 76' RB Leipzig win: 52% at kick-off, 83% now
76′THE CALL SWINGS · 76' RB Leipzig win is now our likeliest result at 83% (was Draw 15%)
77′SUBSTITUTION · 77' RB Leipzig · On: Rocco Reitz · Off: Brajan Gruda Corrected
78′SUBSTITUTION · 78' PSV Eindhoven · On: Ryan Flamingo · Off: Lutsharel Geertruida Corrected
78′SUBSTITUTION · 76' RB Leipzig · On: Rocco Reitz · Off: Brajan Gruda Corrected
78′SUBSTITUTION · 78' PSV Eindhoven · On: Yarek Gasiorowski · Off: Filip Kostić Corrected
79′We said RB Leipzig at 52% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 86%. 1–0 · 86–13–1
79′SUBSTITUTION · 77' PSV Eindhoven · On: Ryan Flamingo · Off: Lutsharel Geertruida Corrected
79′SUBSTITUTION · 77' PSV Eindhoven · On: Yarek Gasiorowski · Off: Filip Kostić Corrected
81′🟨 YELLOW · 80' David Raum · RB Leipzig
83′We said RB Leipzig at 52% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 1–0 · 90–10–1
83′🟨 YELLOW · 82' Antonio Nusa · RB Leipzig
83′🟨 YELLOW · 81' Antonio Nusa · RB Leipzig
84′SUBSTITUTION · 84' PSV Eindhoven · On: Ayoni Santos · Off: Ruben van Bommel Corrected
84′SUBSTITUTION · 84' PSV Eindhoven · On: Mikkel Bro Hansen · Off: Sven Mijnans Corrected
86′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 86' RB Leipzig win: 52% at kick-off, 92% now
86′🟨 YELLOW · 85' Armando Obispo · PSV Eindhoven
86′SUBSTITUTION · 86' RB Leipzig · On: Nicolas Seiwald · Off: Ridle Baku Corrected
87′SUBSTITUTION · 86' RB Leipzig · On: Lukas Klostermann · Off: Ezechiel Banzuzi Corrected
90′We said RB Leipzig at 52% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
FTFULL TIME RB Leipzig 1–0 PSV Eindhoven
FTRB Leipzig 1–0 PSV Eindhoven · RB Leipzig win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Over 3.5: wrong · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pass

Our analyst’s one-line verdict on how this match goes.

What decides it

The reason that decides itThe fact behind it, in one line.

– –

Where the chances come fromThe figure that shows it, in one line.

– –

What could tip the balanceWhat could change it, in one line.

– –

The AI’s read on this match

The verdict, the three reasons that decide it, what would change it and the players to watch — checked live during the game, with a review after full time. Included with a pass.

See the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 13 Oct 19:33 · locked at kick-off

RB Leipzig win52%

Draw20%

PSV Eindhoven win28%

Kick-offTUE 13 OCT · 20:00

VenueLeipzig Red Bull Arena

RefereeNick Walsh

Line-ups

RB Leipzig

4-2-3-1

PSV Eindhoven

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

RB Leipzig

PSV Eindhoven

33Days since last match33

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
56	PSV Eindhoven	1	0	1
76	RB Leipzig	1	−3	0

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

In the news

from the pressAll ›

FEATURE | Five standout players from Bundesliga Matchday 5Get German Football News · 1 day ago · RB Leipzig, Eintracht Frankfurt, Werder Bremen, Borussia Dortmund Martin Demichelis discusses Antonio Nusa and PSV ahead of UEFA Champions League clashGet German Football News · 1 day ago · RB Leipzig, Eintracht Frankfurt

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

RB Leipzig

4-2-3-1

26 M. Vandevoordt

17 R. Baku

4 W. Orban

23 C. Lukeba

22 D. Raum

21 N. El Aynaoui

6 E. Banzuzi

10 B. Gruda

28 C. Nkunku

7 A. Nusa

40 Romulo Cardoso

Coach · Martin Demichelis

Substitutes

1 · O. Nyland

16 · L. Klostermann

35 · M. Finkgrafe

2 · A. Kone

39 · B. Henrichs

3 · M. Esteve

30 · A. Maksimovic

13 · N. Seiwald

20 · R. Reitz

11 · J. Bakayoko

27 · T. Gomis

PSV Eindhoven

4-2-3-1

32 M. Kovar

8 S. Dest

2 L. Geertruida

4 A. Obispo

18 F. Kostic

24 K. Sano

17 Mauro Junior

5 I. Perisic

20 G. Til

7 R. van Bommel

21 S. Mijnans

Coach · Peter Bosz

Substitutes

1 · N. Olij

51 · T. Smolenaars

6 · R. Flamingo

3 · Y. Gasiorowski

35 · A. Santos

42 · S. Cornecion

31 · N. Fernandez

27 · D. Man

19 · E. Bajraktarevic

37 · A. Bouhamdi

23 · M. Bro Hansen

Our number · rb leipzig winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 13 Oct 19:33 · locked at kick-off

52% The market61%

Us52%

~~Market~~61%

We make RB Leipzig a 52% chance to win. The market has them at 61%. We are 9 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.3–1.7.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · rb leipzig win The market, margin stripped

Published at 50%, 52% now. The market has gone from 47% to 61% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
RB Leipzig win	52%	61%	−9
Draw	20%	19%	+1
PSV Eindhoven win	28%	20%	+8
Over 2.5 goals	76%	75%	+1
Both teams to score	73%	70%	+3
Over 1.5 goals	91%	89%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	56%	57%	−1
RB Leipzig or draw	72%	80%	−8
RB Leipzig clean sheet	19%	–	–
PSV Eindhoven clean sheet	10%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 8.3%

0123450 2.1 2.9 2.6 1 4.0 7.4 6.0 3.4 2 5.0 8.3 7.0 3.9 3 3.8 6.4 5.4 3.0 4 2.2 3.7 3.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+RB Leipzig down, PSV Eindhoven across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates every club on one scale from 408,274 league, cup and continental matches in 638 leagues up to 13 Oct 2026: each club against its own league, and the leagues against each other through the matches between them, weighting recent matches more.

The two leagues

RB Leipzig play in the Bundesliga, PSV Eindhoven in the Eredivisie.

Venue

Allows for home advantage: RB Leipzig are at home.

Head to head

No previous meeting between these two in this competition, so this step adds nothing.

What the model expects

2.32 goals for RB Leipzig, 1.67 for PSV Eindhoven. Most likely score 2–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 13 Oct 19:32. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No meetings between these two in UEFA Champions League since 2021. Cup ties and meetings in other competitions are not counted here.

Form · last six in UEFA Champions League

RB LEIPZIG

LLLWLL1–3 · 0–1 · 2–3 · 2–1 · 0–1 · 1–4

PSV EINDHOVEN

DWLLLD1–1 · 4–1 · 2–3 · 0–3 · 1–2 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Sabah FA	9	+5	18
2	Fenerbahçe	7	+5	15
3	Levski Sofia	8	+3	15
4	Hapoel Beer Sheva	6	+4	12
5	Slovan Bratislava	7	0	12
6	Dinamo Zagreb	6	+4	9
7	Ararat-Armenia	6	+1	9
8	Kairat Almaty	6	+1	9
9	Bodo/Glimt	5	0	8
10	Kauno Žalgiris	6	−4	8
11	AEK Athens FC	3	+5	7
12	Universitatea Craiova	4	+3	7
13	Celje	6	+1	7
14	KI Klaksvik	4	+1	7
15	Vikingur Reykjavik	4	0	7
16	FK Crvena Zvezda	4	+6	6
17	Egnatia Rrogozhinë	4	+5	6
18	Sturm Graz	4	+3	6
19	Shamrock Rovers	4	+1	6
20	Aarhus	4	−3	6
21	Larne	4	−7	6
22	FC Iberia 1999	4	−1	5
23	Lincoln Red Imps FC	4	−1	5
24	Lyon	4	+1	4
25	Viking	3	0	4
26	Mjallby AIF	4	0	4
27	Paris Saint Germain	1	+5	3
28	Bayern München	1	+5	3
29	Barcelona	1	+4	3
30	Manchester United	1	+4	3
31	Como	1	+3	3
32	Sporting CP	1	+2	3
33	VfB Stuttgart	1	+2	3
34	Manchester City	1	+2	3
35	Aston Villa	1	+1	3
36	Borussia Dortmund	1	+1	3
37	Lens	1	+1	3
38	Real Betis	1	+1	3
39	Liverpool	1	+1	3
40	Real Madrid	1	+1	3
41	Arsenal	1	+1	3
42	Celtic	2	0	3
43	Lech Poznan	2	0	3
44	Vardar Skopje	2	0	3
45	Omonia Nicosia	2	0	3
46	Lask Linz	3	−1	3
47	Riga	2	−1	3
48	Floriana	2	−2	3
49	Sparta Praha	2	−2	3
50	KuPS	4	−3	3
51	Union St. Gilloise	2	0	2
52	FC Thun	2	0	2
53	Olympiakos Piraeus	2	0	2
54	NEC Nijmegen	4	−5	2
55	AS Roma	1	0	1
56	PSV Eindhoven	1	0	1
57	Shakhtar Donetsk	1	0	1
58	Flora Tallinn	2	−1	1
59	Drita	2	−1	1
60	Gyori ETO FC	2	−1	1
61	Gornik Zabrze	2	−1	1
62	Inter Club d'Escaldes	2	−2	1
63	Borac Banja Luka	2	−4	1
64	Petrocub	2	−5	1
65	Club Brugge KV	1	−1	0
66	Lille	1	−1	0
67	Slavia Praha	1	−1	0
68	Villarreal	1	−1	0
69	Atletico Madrid	1	−1	0
70	Inter	1	−1	0
71	Napoli	1	−1	0
72	Atert Bissen	2	−2	0
73	Galatasaray	1	−2	0
74	Tre Fiori	2	−2	0
75	FC Porto	1	−2	0
76	RB Leipzig	1	−3	0
77	Sutjeska	2	−3	0
78	The New Saints	2	−3	0
79	Feyenoord	1	−4	0
80	ML Vitebsk	2	−4	0
81	Heart Of Midlothian	2	−6	0