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Napoli v Bodo/Glimt

Napoli

4–3Full time

Bodo/Glimt

UEFA Champions League · TUE 20 OCT · Maradona Stadium

Full timeGraded 20 Oct 22:30

Napoli 4–3 Bodo/Glimt NAPOLI WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Napoli win~~46%

~~The market said~~55%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.436

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.302

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay23 notes · 33 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Napoli win at 46%.
1′Much as we predicted: Napoli was 46% before kick-off and our model makes it 46% now. 0–0 · 46–26–28
1′KICK-OFF Napoli v Bodo/Glimt
2′Napoli ahead on 1′ through Matteo Politano. 1–0. 1–0 · 72–17–11
2′We published Napoli at 46%. Our model now makes it 72%. 1–0 · 72–17–11
2′⚽ GOAL · 1' Napoli 1–0 Bodo/Glimt · Matteo Politano
2′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 2' Napoli win: 46% at kick-off, 72% now
27′⚽ GOAL · 27' Napoli 1–1 Bodo/Glimt
27′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 27' Napoli win: 46% at kick-off, 42% now
28′Jens Petter Hauge scores for Bodo/Glimt on 27′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 41–32–27
28′Napoli have had 8 attempts to 1 and it is still 1–1. 1–1 · 41–32–27
41′We published Napoli at 46%. Our model now makes it 75%. 2–1 · 75–18–7
41′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.7 across ninety minutes. 2–1 · 75–18–7
41′⚽ GOAL · 41' Napoli 2–1 Bodo/Glimt
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 41' Napoli win: 46% at kick-off, 75% now
42′41′: Scott McTominay on the scoresheet for Napoli, making it 2–1. 2–1 · 75–18–7
45′SECOND HALF Napoli 2–1 Bodo/Glimt
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45+1' Napoli win: 46% at kick-off, 76% now
46′HALF-TIME Napoli 2–1 Bodo/Glimt
49′🟨 YELLOW · 48' Frank Anguissa · Napoli
59′🟨 YELLOW · 58' Noa Lang · Napoli
61′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Napoli · On: Stanislav Lobotka · Off: Frank Anguissa
62′We published Napoli at 46%. Our model now makes it 80%. 2–1 · 80–17–3
62′We said Napoli at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 2–2 · 29–51–20
62′⚽ GOAL · 62' Napoli 2–2 Bodo/Glimt
62′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 62' Napoli win: 46% at kick-off, 29% now
62′THE CALL SWINGS · 62' Draw is now our likeliest result at 51% (was Napoli win 80%)
63′Napoli have had 14 attempts to 6 and it is still 2–2. 2–2 · 28–52–20
63′4 goals already, more than the 2.7 we expected for the whole match. 2–2 · 28–52–20
64′Bodo/Glimt level it on 62′ through Andreas Helmersen. 2–2. 2–2 · 28–53–19
66′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 66' Napoli win: 46% at kick-off, 26% now
69′We said Napoli at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 2–2 · 24–58–17
74′We published Napoli at 46%. Our model now makes it 86%. 3–2 · 86–13–1
74′⚽ GOAL · 74' Napoli 3–2 Bodo/Glimt
74′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 74' Napoli win: 46% at kick-off, 86% now
74′THE CALL SWINGS · 74' Napoli win is now our likeliest result at 86% (was Draw 65%)
75′That is 5, and we only asked for 2.7 across ninety minutes. 3–2 · 86–13–1
76′Scott McTominay scores for Napoli on 75′ — 3–2. 3–2 · 87–12–1
77′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Bodo/Glimt · On: Ola Brynhildsen · Off: Andreas Helmersen
80′We published Napoli at 46%. Our model now makes it 90%. 3–2 · 90–10–1
80′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Napoli · On: Mathias Olivera · Off: Matteo Politano
80′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Napoli · On: Sam Beukema · Off: Leonardo Spinazzola
80′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Napoli · On: Giovane Santana Do Nascimento · Off: Noa Lang
84′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Bodo/Glimt · On: Ulrik Saltnes · Off: Sondre Auklend
84′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Bodo/Glimt · On: Joel Mvuka · Off: Ole Didrik Blomberg
84′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Bodo/Glimt · On: Isak Dybvik Maatta · Off: Fredrik Bjorkan
85′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Bodo/Glimt · On: Haitam Aleesami · Off: Jostein Gundersen
87′We published Napoli at 46%. Our model now makes it 95%. 3–2 · 95–5–0
87′🟨 YELLOW · 86' Giovanni Di Lorenzo · Napoli
88′We published Napoli at 46%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 4–2 · 100–0–0
88′⚽ GOAL · 88' Napoli 4–2 Bodo/Glimt
88′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 88' Napoli win: 46% at kick-off, over 99% now
89′6 goals already, more than the 2.7 we expected for the whole match. 4–2 · 100–0–0
90′88′: Odin Luras Bjortuft puts it into the Bodo/Glimt net, and it is 4–2. 4–2 · 100–0–0
94′That is 7, and we only asked for 2.7 across ninety minutes. 4–3 · 99–1–0
94′⚽ GOAL · 90+4' Napoli 4–3 Bodo/Glimt
FTFULL TIME Napoli 4–3 Bodo/Glimt
FTNapoli 4–3 Bodo/Glimt · Napoli win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Napoli are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Napoli 46%, draw 26%, Bodo/Glimt 28%. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 55%.

The AI’s read on Napoli v Bodo/GlimtBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 14 Oct 04:28 · locked at kick-off

Napoli win46%

Draw26%

Bodo/Glimt win28%

Kick-offTUE 20 OCT · 20:00

RoundLeague stage · matchday 3

VenueMaradona Stadium

RefereeJose Maria Sanchez Martinez

Line-ups

Napoli

3-4-2-1

Bodo/Glimt

4-4-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Napoli

Bodo/Glimt

3Days since last match3

Last match: 17 Oct · the Italian Serie A

Last match: 17 Oct · Eliteserien

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
24	Bodo/Glimt	2	−4	3
32	Napoli	2	−3	0

In the news

from the pressAll ›

Champions League line-ups: Napoli vs. Bodo/GlimtFootball Italia · 20 Oct 18:50 · Napoli, Bodo/Glimt Champions League Liveblog: Roma vs. Slovan, Napoli vs. Bodo/GlimtFootball Italia · 20 Oct 18:26 · AS Roma, Napoli, Bodo/Glimt Official: Napoli name 20-man squad for Bodo/Glimt in Champions LeagueFootball Italia · 20 Oct 15:04 · Napoli, Bodo/Glimt UCL: Napoli vs. Bodo/Glimt – Probable line-ups and where to watch on TVFootball Italia · 20 Oct 14:11 · Napoli, Bodo/Glimt

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Napoli

3-4-2-1

1 A. Meret

22 G. Di Lorenzo

13 Amir Rrahmani

16 Rafa Marín

21 M. Politano

99 A. Zambo Anguissa

8 S. McTominay

37 L. Spinazzola

11 K. De Bruyne

70 N. Lang

19 R. Højlund

Coach · M. Allegri

Substitutes

6 · B. Gilmour

23 · Giovane

68 · S. Lobotka

17 · M. Olivera

32 · V. Milinković-Savić

20 · L. Lucca

5 · B. Badiashile

31 · S. Beukema

14 · N. Contini

Bodo/Glimt

4-4-2

12 N. Haikin

20 F. Sjøvold

6 J. Gundersen

4 O. Bjørtuft

15 F. Bjørkan

8 S. Auklend

7 P. Berg

19 S. Fet

10 J. Hauge

11 O. Didrik Blomberg

9 A. Helmersen

Coach · K. Knutsen

Substitutes

17 · O. Brynhildsen

16 · J. Kitolano

1 · J. Faye Lund

25 · I. Määttä

22 · J. Mvuka

2 · V. Nielsen

14 · U. Saltnes

5 · H. Aleesami

Our number · napoli winFirst published 14 Oct 04:28 · updated 18 Oct 00:22 · locked at kick-off

46% The market55%

Us46%

~~Market~~55%

We make Napoli a 46% chance to win. The market has them at 55%. We are 9 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Napoli v Bodo/Glimt~~1.56 – 1.16

~~Form · UEFA Champions League this season · since 4 Aug~~W0 D0 L2 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 0 v 3~~32 v 24

~~The market · Napoli win~~55% · ours 46%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Napoli win The market, margin stripped

Published at 49%, 46% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 55% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Napoli win	46%	55%	−9
Draw	26%	23%	+3
Bodo/Glimt win	28%	21%	+7
Over 2.5 goals	51%	61%	−10
Both teams to score	55%	61%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	76%	81%	−5
Over 3.5 goals	29%	41%	−12
Napoli or draw	72%	79%	−7
Napoli clean sheet	31%	–	–
Bodo/Glimt clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.3%

0123450 7.0 7.3 4.4 1 9.9 12.3 6.9 2.7 2 8.0 9.3 5.4 2.1 3 4.2 4.8 2.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Napoli down, Bodo/Glimt across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates the clubs of 638 leagues on one scale, from the 410,768 league, cup and continental matches of the last three years up to 19 Oct 2026: each club against its own league, and the leagues against each other through the matches between them, weighting recent matches more.

The two leagues

Napoli play in the Italian Serie A, Bodo/Glimt in Eliteserien.

Venue

Allows for home advantage: Napoli are at home.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021/22.

What the model expects

1.56 goals for Napoli, 1.16 for Bodo/Glimt. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 20 Oct 19:30. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · UEFA Champions League this season · since 4 Aug

NAPOLI

LL0–1 · 1–3

BODO/GLIMT

DDWWLW3–3 · 2–2 · 3–1 · 3–0 · 0–5 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Paris Saint Germain	2	+7	6
2	Barcelona	2	+7	6
3	Aston Villa	2	+7	6
4	VfB Stuttgart	2	+5	6
5	Liverpool	2	+4	6
6	Sporting CP	2	+4	6
7	Arsenal	2	+4	6
8	Real Madrid	2	+2	6
9	Real Betis	2	+2	6
10	Bayern München	2	+5	4
11	Shakhtar Donetsk	2	+2	4
12	Como	2	+2	3
13	Manchester United	2	+2	3
14	Villarreal	2	+1	3
15	Atletico Madrid	2	+1	3
16	Club Brugge KV	2	0	3
17	Manchester City	2	0	3
18	Borussia Dortmund	2	0	3
19	Lens	2	−1	3
20	AEK Athens FC	2	−1	3
21	RB Leipzig	2	−2	3
22	Sabah FA	2	−2	3
23	Feyenoord	2	−3	3
24	Bodo/Glimt	2	−4	3
25	AS Roma	2	−1	1
26	PSV Eindhoven	2	−1	1
27	Viking	2	−2	1
28	Fenerbahçe	2	−6	1
29	Inter	2	−2	0
30	FC Porto	2	−3	0
31	Slavia Praha	2	−3	0
32	Napoli	2	−3	0
33	Lask Linz	2	−4	0
34	Lille	2	−4	0
35	Galatasaray	2	−5	0
36	Slovan Bratislava	2	−8	0