Manchester City v Paris Saint Germain

1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Manchester City win at 52%.
2. 1′KICK-OFF Manchester City v Paris Saint Germain
3. 2′Much as we predicted: Manchester City was 52% before kick-off and our model makes it 52% now. 0–0 · 52–23–25
4. 14′13′ and it is 0–1: Désiré Doue on the scoresheet for Paris Saint Germain. 0–1 · 26–24–50
5. 14′⚽ GOAL · 13' Manchester City 0–1 Paris Saint Germain · Désiré Doue
6. 14′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 14' Manchester City win: 52% at kick-off, 26% now
7. 14′THE CALL SWINGS · 14' Paris Saint Germain win is now our likeliest result at 50% (was Manchester City win 26%)
8. 15′We said Manchester City at 52%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 10%. 0–2 · 10–15–74
9. 15′⚽ GOAL · 15' Manchester City 0–2 Paris Saint Germain · Désiré Doue
10. 15′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 15' Manchester City win: 52% at kick-off, 10% now
11. 16′Paris Saint Germain ahead on 15′ through Ousmane Dembélé. 0–2. 0–2 · 10–15–75
12. 20′We said Manchester City at 52%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–2 · 9–15–76
13. 32′⚽ GOAL · 32' Manchester City 0–3 Paris Saint Germain · Ousmane Dembélé
14. 33′Vitinha scores for Paris Saint Germain on 32′ — 0–3. 0–3 · 2–5–93
15. 33′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 33' Manchester City win: 52% at kick-off, 2% now
16. 34′We said Manchester City at 52%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 2%. 0–3 · 2–5–94
17. 45′HALF-TIME Manchester City 0–3 Paris Saint Germain
18. 45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Manchester City · On: Iliman Ndiaye · Off: Rayan Cherki Corrected
19. 45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Manchester City · On: Matheus Nunes · Off: Rúben Dias
20. 45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Manchester City · On: Ayyoub Bouaddi · Off: Jeremy Doku Corrected
21. 46′SECOND HALF Manchester City 0–3 Paris Saint Germain
22. 53′53′ and it is 1–3: Erling Haaland on the scoresheet for Manchester City. 1–3 · 3–9–88
23. 53′⚽ GOAL · 53' Manchester City 1–3 Paris Saint Germain · Erling Haaland
24. 53′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 53' Manchester City win: 52% at kick-off, 3% now
25. 54′4 goals already, more than the 3.0 we expected for the whole match. 1–3 · 3–9–88
26. 56′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 56' Manchester City win: 52% at kick-off, 2% now
27. 62′🟨 YELLOW · 61' Antoine Semenyo · Manchester City
28. 63′⚽ GOAL · 63' Manchester City 1–4 Paris Saint Germain · Vitinha
29. 64′That is 5, and we only asked for 3.0 across ninety minutes. 1–4 · 0–1–99
30. 65′Paris Saint Germain ahead on 62′ through Maghnes Akliouche. 1–4. 1–4 · 0–1–99
31. 67′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Paris Saint Germain · On: Khvicha Kvaratskhelia · Off: Désiré Doue
32. 70′🟨 YELLOW · 69' Warren Zaire-Emery · Paris Saint Germain
33. 73′17.0 shots for Manchester City, 12.0 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 1–4 · 0–0–100
34. 75′Manchester City have had 20.0 attempts to 12.0 and it is still 1–4. 1–4 · 0–0–100
35. 75′⚽ GOAL · 75' Manchester City 2–4 Paris Saint Germain · Erling Haaland
36. 76′Erling Haaland scores for Manchester City on 75′ — 2–4. 2–4 · 0–3–97
37. 77′6 goals already, more than the 3.0 we expected for the whole match. 2–4 · 0–2–97
38. 77′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Paris Saint Germain · On: Ferrán Torres · Off: Ousmane Dembélé
39. 77′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Paris Saint Germain · On: João Neves · Off: Maghnes Akliouche
40. 83′Manchester City have had 24.0 attempts to 14.0 and it is still 2–4. 2–4 · 0–1–99
41. 86′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Paris Saint Germain · On: Lucas Hernández · Off: Fabián Ruiz
42. 86′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Paris Saint Germain · On: Lucas Beraldo · Off: Warren Zaire-Emery
43. 86′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Paris Saint Germain · On: Lucas Hernández · Off: Fabián Ruiz
44. 87′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Paris Saint Germain · On: Lucas Beraldo · Off: Warren Zaire-Emery
45. 90′PENALTY MISSED · 90' Ferrán Torres · Paris Saint Germain
46. 90′SUBSTITUTION · 90' Manchester City · On: Nico O'Reilly · Off: Enzo Fernández
47. FTFULL TIME Manchester City 2–4 Paris Saint Germain
48. FTManchester City 2–4 Paris Saint Germain · Manchester City win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.