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Manchester City v AEK Athens FC
Manchester City
AEK Athens FCUEFA Champions League · TUE 20 OCT · Etihad Stadium
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said Manchester City win at 82%.
- 1′Little has changed for our model: Manchester City 82% before kick-off, 81% now. 0–0 · 81–13–6
- 1′KICK-OFF Manchester City v AEK Athens FC
- 12′12′: Elliot Anderson on the scoresheet for Manchester City, making it 1–0. 1–0 · 94–5–1
- 12′We said Manchester City at 82% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 94%. 1–0 · 94–5–1
- 12′⚽ GOAL · 12' Manchester City 1–0 AEK Athens FC · Elliot Anderson
- 12′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 12' Manchester City win: 82% at kick-off, 94% now
- 30′The goal count is tracking the 3.4 we expected. 1–0 · 92–6–1
- 35′Manchester City ahead on 34′ through Phil Foden. 2–0. 2–0 · 99–1–0
- 35′We said Manchester City at 82% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 99%. 2–0 · 99–1–0
- 35′⚽ GOAL · 34' Manchester City 2–0 AEK Athens FC · Phil Foden
- 45′HALF-TIME Manchester City 2–0 AEK Athens FC
- 45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' AEK Athens FC · On: Aboubakary Koita · Off: Răzvan Marin
- 46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' AEK Athens FC · On: Ambrósini António Cabaça Salvador · Off: Barnabás Varga
- 46′SECOND HALF Manchester City 2–0 AEK Athens FC
- 52′⚽ GOAL · 52' Manchester City 2–1 AEK Athens FC
- 53′Stavros Pilios scores for AEK Athens FC on 52′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 92–7–1
- 58′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.4 across ninety minutes. 3–1 · 99–1–0
- 58′57′: Rayan Cherki on the scoresheet for Manchester City, making it 3–1. 3–1 · 99–1–0
- 58′⚽ GOAL · 58' Manchester City 3–1 AEK Athens FC
- 61′🟨 YELLOW · 59' Josko Gvardiol · Manchester City
- 63′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Manchester City · On: Ryan McAidoo · Off: Floyd Samba
- 64′SUBSTITUTION · 63' AEK Athens FC · On: Oleksandr Zubkov · Off: João Mário
- 66′We said Manchester City at 82% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 4–1 · 100–0–0
- 66′Manchester City ahead on 65′ through Phil Foden. 4–1. 4–1 · 100–0–0
- 66′5 goals already, more than the 3.4 we expected for the whole match. 4–1 · 100–0–0
- 66′⚽ GOAL · 66' Manchester City 4–1 AEK Athens FC
- 73′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Manchester City · On: Vitor de Oliveira Nunes dos Reis · Off: Josko Gvardiol
- 73′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Manchester City · On: Rayan Aït-Nouri · Off: Enzo Fernández
- 77′That is 6, and we only asked for 3.4 across ninety minutes. 5–1 · 100–0–0
- 77′Phil Foden scores for Manchester City on 76′ — 5–1. 5–1 · 100–0–0
- 77′⚽ GOAL · 77' Manchester City 5–1 AEK Athens FC
- 83′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Manchester City · On: Kaden Braithwaite · Off: Rúben Dias
- 84′SUBSTITUTION · 83' AEK Athens FC · On: Mijat Gaćinović · Off: Kervin Arriaga
- 84′SUBSTITUTION · 83' AEK Athens FC · On: Milan Vitális · Off: Luka Jovic
- FTFULL TIME Manchester City 5–1 AEK Athens FC
- FTManchester City 5–1 AEK Athens FC · Manchester City win: right · Over 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 2–0 exactly: wrong
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
Manchester City are clear favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: Manchester City 82%, draw 13%, AEK Athens FC 6%. Over 2.5 goals 66%, both teams to score 44%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 14 Oct 04:28 · locked at kick-off
Manchester City win82%
AEK Athens FC win6%Kick-offTUE 20 OCT · 20:00
RoundLeague stage · matchday 3
VenueEtihad Stadium
RefereeWilly Delajod
Match timeline
All events
Manchester CityMIN
AEK Athens FCEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Manchester City
4-2-3-1
AEK Athens FC
4-4-2
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Manchester City
AEK Athens FC
Last match: 17 Oct · the English Premier League
Last match: 14 Oct · UEFA Champions League
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.
How to watch Man City vs AEK – TV channel, live stream and kick-off timeMirror Football · · Manchester City
Man City have Champions League wildcard with UEFA battle serving as Premier League warningMirror Football · · Manchester City
Line-ups
Manchester City
4-2-3-1
1 G. Donnarumma
82 R. Lewis
45 A. Khusanov
3 Rúben Dias
24 J. Gvardiol
5 E. Anderson
17 E. Fernández
47 P. Foden
10 R. Cherki
37 Allan
75 F. Samba
Coach · E. Maresca
Substitutes
28 · G. Rulli
7 · I. Ndiaye
22 · Vitor Nunes
21 · R. Aït-Nouri
13 · M. Bettinelli
32 · A. Bouaddi
61 · K. Braithwaite
9 · E. Haaland
11 · J. Doku
6 · M. Guéhi
56 · R. McAidoo
AEK Athens FC
4-4-2
91 A. Brignoli
12 L. Rota
2 H. Moukoudi
44 Filipe Relvas
3 S. Pilios
14 L. Majer
16 K. Arriaga
18 R. Marin
23 João Mário
9 L. Jović
19 B. Varga
Coach · M. Nikolić
Substitutes
10 · O. Zubkov
90 · Zini
27 · M. Vitális
21 · D. Vida
22 · C. Lykogiannis
11 · A. Koita
6 · K. Kairinen
8 · M. Gaćinović
41 · Marios Balamotis
20 · P. Mantalos
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Manchester City
4-2-3-1
1 G. Donnarumma
82 R. Lewis
45 A. Khusanov
3 Rúben Dias
24 J. Gvardiol
5 E. Anderson
17 E. Fernández
47 P. Foden
10 R. Cherki
37 Allan
75 F. Samba
Coach · E. Maresca
Substitutes
28 · G. Rulli
7 · I. Ndiaye
22 · Vitor Nunes
21 · R. Aït-Nouri
13 · M. Bettinelli
32 · A. Bouaddi
61 · K. Braithwaite
9 · E. Haaland
11 · J. Doku
6 · M. Guéhi
56 · R. McAidoo
AEK Athens FC
4-4-2
91 A. Brignoli
12 L. Rota
2 H. Moukoudi
44 Filipe Relvas
3 S. Pilios
14 L. Majer
16 K. Arriaga
18 R. Marin
23 João Mário
9 L. Jović
19 B. Varga
Coach · M. Nikolić
Substitutes
10 · O. Zubkov
90 · Zini
27 · M. Vitális
21 · D. Vida
22 · C. Lykogiannis
11 · A. Koita
6 · K. Kairinen
8 · M. Gaćinović
41 · Marios Balamotis
20 · P. Mantalos
We make Manchester City an 82% chance to win. The market has them at 84%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 2.8–0.6.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Published at 81%, 82% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 84% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester City win | 82% | 84% | −2 |
| Draw | 13% | 10% | +3 |
| AEK Athens FC win | 6% | 6% | 0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 66% | 74% | −8 |
| Both teams to score | 44% | 51% | −7 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 86% | 88% | −2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 45% | 56% | −11 |
| Manchester City or draw | 94% | 94% | 0 |
| Manchester City clean sheet | 53% | – | – |
| AEK Athens FC clean sheet | 6% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
No meetings since 2021/22No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.
Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · UEFA Champions League this season · since 18 Aug
MANCHESTER CITY
AEK ATHENS FC
The table
2026/27| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paris Saint Germain | 2 | +7 | 6 |
| 2 | Barcelona | 2 | +7 | 6 |
| 3 | Aston Villa | 2 | +7 | 6 |
| 4 | VfB Stuttgart | 2 | +5 | 6 |
| 5 | Liverpool | 2 | +4 | 6 |
| 6 | Sporting CP | 2 | +4 | 6 |
| 7 | Arsenal | 2 | +4 | 6 |
| 8 | Real Madrid | 2 | +2 | 6 |
| 9 | Real Betis | 2 | +2 | 6 |
| 10 | Bayern München | 2 | +5 | 4 |
| 11 | Shakhtar Donetsk | 2 | +2 | 4 |
| 12 | Como | 2 | +2 | 3 |
| 13 | Manchester United | 2 | +2 | 3 |
| 14 | Villarreal | 2 | +1 | 3 |
| 15 | Atletico Madrid | 2 | +1 | 3 |
| 16 | Club Brugge KV | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 17 | Manchester City | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 18 | Borussia Dortmund | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 19 | Lens | 2 | −1 | 3 |
| 20 | AEK Athens FC | 2 | −1 | 3 |
| 21 | RB Leipzig | 2 | −2 | 3 |
| 22 | Sabah FA | 2 | −2 | 3 |
| 23 | Feyenoord | 2 | −3 | 3 |
| 24 | Bodo/Glimt | 2 | −4 | 3 |
| 25 | AS Roma | 2 | −1 | 1 |
| 26 | PSV Eindhoven | 2 | −1 | 1 |
| 27 | Viking | 2 | −2 | 1 |
| 28 | Fenerbahçe | 2 | −6 | 1 |
| 29 | Inter | 2 | −2 | 0 |
| 30 | FC Porto | 2 | −3 | 0 |
| 31 | Slavia Praha | 2 | −3 | 0 |
| 32 | Napoli | 2 | −3 | 0 |
| 33 | Lask Linz | 2 | −4 | 0 |
| 34 | Lille | 2 | −4 | 0 |
| 35 | Galatasaray | 2 | −5 | 0 |
| 36 | Slovan Bratislava | 2 | −8 | 0 |
The competition's standings before kick-off.
Paris Saint Germain
Barcelona
Aston Villa
VfB Stuttgart
Liverpool
Sporting CP
Arsenal
Real Madrid
Real Betis
Bayern München
Shakhtar Donetsk
Como
Manchester United
Villarreal
Atletico Madrid
Club Brugge KV
Borussia Dortmund
Lens
RB Leipzig
Sabah FA
Feyenoord
Bodo/Glimt
AS Roma
PSV Eindhoven
Viking
Fenerbahçe
Inter
FC Porto
Slavia Praha
Napoli
Lask Linz
Lille
Galatasaray
Slovan Bratislava