Install the appInstall the appPitchside Lab · free · no ads
Pitchside Lab
Model 1.2

Home › Football › UEFA Champions League › Manchester City v AEK Athens FC

Back

Manchester City v AEK Athens FC

Manchester City
5–1Full time
AEK Athens FC

UEFA Champions League · TUE 20 OCT · Etihad Stadium

Full timeGraded 20 Oct 22:30
Manchester City 5–1 AEK Athens FC MANCHESTER CITY WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Manchester City win82%
The market said84%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.052
The market’s Brier score0.041

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 21 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Manchester City win at 82%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Manchester City 82% before kick-off, 81% now. 0–0 · 81–13–6
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Manchester City v AEK Athens FC
  4. 12′12′: Elliot Anderson on the scoresheet for Manchester City, making it 1–0. 1–0 · 94–5–1
  5. 12′We said Manchester City at 82% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 94%. 1–0 · 94–5–1
  6. 12′⚽ GOAL · 12' Manchester City 1–0 AEK Athens FC · Elliot Anderson
  7. 12′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 12' Manchester City win: 82% at kick-off, 94% now
  8. 30′The goal count is tracking the 3.4 we expected. 1–0 · 92–6–1
  9. 35′Manchester City ahead on 34′ through Phil Foden. 2–0. 2–0 · 99–1–0
  10. 35′We said Manchester City at 82% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 99%. 2–0 · 99–1–0
  11. 35′⚽ GOAL · 34' Manchester City 2–0 AEK Athens FC · Phil Foden
  12. 45′HALF-TIME Manchester City 2–0 AEK Athens FC
  13. 45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' AEK Athens FC · On: Aboubakary Koita · Off: Răzvan Marin
  14. 46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' AEK Athens FC · On: Ambrósini António Cabaça Salvador · Off: Barnabás Varga
  15. 46′SECOND HALF Manchester City 2–0 AEK Athens FC
  16. 52′⚽ GOAL · 52' Manchester City 2–1 AEK Athens FC
  17. 53′Stavros Pilios scores for AEK Athens FC on 52′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 92–7–1
  18. 58′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.4 across ninety minutes. 3–1 · 99–1–0
  19. 58′57′: Rayan Cherki on the scoresheet for Manchester City, making it 3–1. 3–1 · 99–1–0
  20. 58′⚽ GOAL · 58' Manchester City 3–1 AEK Athens FC
  21. 61′🟨 YELLOW · 59' Josko Gvardiol · Manchester City
  22. 63′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Manchester City · On: Ryan McAidoo · Off: Floyd Samba
  23. 64′SUBSTITUTION · 63' AEK Athens FC · On: Oleksandr Zubkov · Off: João Mário
  24. 66′We said Manchester City at 82% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 4–1 · 100–0–0
  25. 66′Manchester City ahead on 65′ through Phil Foden. 4–1. 4–1 · 100–0–0
  26. 66′5 goals already, more than the 3.4 we expected for the whole match. 4–1 · 100–0–0
  27. 66′⚽ GOAL · 66' Manchester City 4–1 AEK Athens FC
  28. 73′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Manchester City · On: Vitor de Oliveira Nunes dos Reis · Off: Josko Gvardiol
  29. 73′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Manchester City · On: Rayan Aït-Nouri · Off: Enzo Fernández
  30. 77′That is 6, and we only asked for 3.4 across ninety minutes. 5–1 · 100–0–0
  31. 77′Phil Foden scores for Manchester City on 76′ — 5–1. 5–1 · 100–0–0
  32. 77′⚽ GOAL · 77' Manchester City 5–1 AEK Athens FC
  33. 83′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Manchester City · On: Kaden Braithwaite · Off: Rúben Dias
  34. 84′SUBSTITUTION · 83' AEK Athens FC · On: Mijat Gaćinović · Off: Kervin Arriaga
  35. 84′SUBSTITUTION · 83' AEK Athens FC · On: Milan Vitális · Off: Luka Jovic
  36. FTFULL TIME Manchester City 5–1 AEK Athens FC
  37. FTManchester City 5–1 AEK Athens FC · Manchester City win: right · Over 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Manchester City are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Manchester City 82%, draw 13%, AEK Athens FC 6%. Over 2.5 goals 66%, both teams to score 44%.

The AI’s read on Manchester City v AEK Athens FCBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 14 Oct 04:28 · locked at kick-off

Manchester City win82%
Draw13%
AEK Athens FC win6%

Kick-offTUE 20 OCT · 20:00

RoundLeague stage · matchday 3

VenueEtihad Stadium

RefereeWilly Delajod

Line-ups

Manchester City

4-2-3-1

AEK Athens FC

4-4-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Manchester City

AEK Athens FC

3Days since last match6

Last match: 17 Oct · the English Premier League

Last match: 14 Oct · UEFA Champions League

3Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
17Manchester City203
20AEK Athens FC2−13

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Manchester City

4-2-3-1

1 G. Donnarumma

82 R. Lewis

45 A. Khusanov

3 Rúben Dias

24 J. Gvardiol

5 E. Anderson

17 E. Fernández

47 P. Foden

10 R. Cherki

37 Allan

75 F. Samba

Coach · E. Maresca

Substitutes

28 · G. Rulli

7 · I. Ndiaye

22 · Vitor Nunes

21 · R. Aït-Nouri

13 · M. Bettinelli

32 · A. Bouaddi

61 · K. Braithwaite

9 · E. Haaland

11 · J. Doku

6 · M. Guéhi

56 · R. McAidoo

AEK Athens FC

4-4-2

91 A. Brignoli

12 L. Rota

2 H. Moukoudi

44 Filipe Relvas

3 S. Pilios

14 L. Majer

16 K. Arriaga

18 R. Marin

23 João Mário

9 L. Jović

19 B. Varga

Coach · M. Nikolić

Substitutes

10 · O. Zubkov

90 · Zini

27 · M. Vitális

21 · D. Vida

22 · C. Lykogiannis

11 · A. Koita

6 · K. Kairinen

8 · M. Gaćinović

41 · Marios Balamotis

20 · P. Mantalos

Our number · manchester city winFirst published 14 Oct 04:28 · updated 16 Oct 00:12 · locked at kick-off
82% The market84%
Us82%
Market84%

We make Manchester City an 82% chance to win. The market has them at 84%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 2.8–0.6.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Manchester City v AEK Athens FC2.79 – 0.64
Form · UEFA Champions League this season · since 18 AugW1 D0 L1 · W2 D1 L1
Table places · points 3 v 317 v 20
The market · Manchester City win84% · ours 82%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
75%80%85%90%95% 14 OCT 04:2820 OCT 19:43
Our probability · Manchester City win The market, margin stripped

Published at 81%, 82% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 84% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Manchester City win82%84%−2
Draw13%10%+3
AEK Athens FC win6%6%0
Over 2.5 goals66%74%−8
Both teams to score44%51%−7
Over 1.5 goals86%88%−2
Over 3.5 goals45%56%−11
Manchester City or draw94%94%0
Manchester City clean sheet53%––
AEK Athens FC clean sheet6%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 12.7%
0123450 3.4 1 8.9 6.0 2 12.7 8.1 2.6 3 11.8 7.5 2.4 4 8.2 5.2 5 4.6 2.9
under 2% 5% 12%+Manchester City down, AEK Athens FC across0–5 goals a side shown (93.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · UEFA Champions League this season · since 18 Aug

MANCHESTER CITY

WL2–0 · 2–4

AEK ATHENS FC

DWWL0–0 · 4–0 · 1–0 · 1–3

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Paris Saint Germain2+76
2Barcelona2+76
3Aston Villa2+76
4VfB Stuttgart2+56
5Liverpool2+46
6Sporting CP2+46
7Arsenal2+46
8Real Madrid2+26
9Real Betis2+26
10Bayern München2+54
11Shakhtar Donetsk2+24
12Como2+23
13Manchester United2+23
14Villarreal2+13
15Atletico Madrid2+13
16Club Brugge KV203
17Manchester City203
18Borussia Dortmund203
19Lens2−13
20AEK Athens FC2−13
21RB Leipzig2−23
22Sabah FA2−23
23Feyenoord2−33
24Bodo/Glimt2−43
25AS Roma2−11
26PSV Eindhoven2−11
27Viking2−21
28Fenerbahçe2−61
29Inter2−20
30FC Porto2−30
31Slavia Praha2−30
32Napoli2−30
33Lask Linz2−40
34Lille2−40
35Galatasaray2−50
36Slovan Bratislava2−80

The competition's standings before kick-off.