Liverpool v Villarreal

1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Liverpool win at 67%.
2. 1′Much as we predicted: Liverpool was 67% before kick-off and our model makes it 66% now. 0–0 · 66–18–15
3. 1′KICK-OFF Liverpool v Villarreal
4. 4′We said Liverpool at 67%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 44%. 0–1 · 44–22–34
5. 4′⚽ GOAL · 4' Liverpool 0–1 Villarreal
6. 4′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 4' Liverpool win: 67% at kick-off, 44% now
7. 5′Villarreal ahead on 4′ through Georges Mikautadze. 0–1. 0–1 · 44–22–34
8. 16′We said Liverpool at 67%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 39%. 0–1 · 39–24–37
9. 20′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 20' Liverpool win: 67% at kick-off, 37% now
10. 25′THE CALL SWINGS · 25' Villarreal win is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Liverpool win 38%)
11. 27′We said Liverpool at 67%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 0–1 · 34–26–40
12. 28′We said Liverpool at 67%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 15%. 0–2 · 15–19–66
13. 28′🟨 YELLOW · 27' Alberto Moleiro · Villarreal
14. 28′⚽ GOAL · 28' Liverpool 0–2 Villarreal
15. 28′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 28' Liverpool win: 67% at kick-off, 15% now
16. 30′Sergi Cardona Bermúdez scores for Villarreal on 29′ — 0–2. 0–2 · 15–18–67
17. 31′We said Liverpool at 67%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–2 · 14–18–68
18. 36′⚽ GOAL · 36' Liverpool 1–2 Villarreal
19. 36′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 36' Liverpool win: 67% at kick-off, 30% now
20. 37′36′: Alexis Mac Allister on the scoresheet for Liverpool, making it 1–2. 1–2 · 29–27–44
21. 37′We said Liverpool at 67%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 1–2 · 29–27–44
22. 42′🟨 YELLOW · 41' Álvaro Santiago Mouriño González · Villarreal
23. 45′SECOND HALF Liverpool 2–2 Villarreal
24. 45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Liverpool · On: Florian Wirtz · Off: Ronald Araujo
25. 45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Villarreal · On: Tani Oluwaseyi · Off: Nathan-Dylan Saliba
26. 46′We said Liverpool at 67%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 52%. 2–2 · 52–30–17
27. 46′Liverpool level it on 45′ through Ronald Araujo. 2–2. 2–2 · 53–30–17
28. 46′4 goals already, more than the 3.7 we expected for the whole match. 2–2 · 53–30–17
29. 46′⚽ GOAL · 46' Liverpool 2–2 Villarreal
30. 46′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 46' Liverpool win: 67% at kick-off, 52% now
31. 46′THE CALL SWINGS · 46' Liverpool win is now our likeliest result at 52% (was Villarreal win 48%)
32. 46′HALF-TIME Liverpool 2–2 Villarreal
33. 52′We said Liverpool at 67%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 49%. 2–2 · 49–34–17
34. 55′SUBSTITUTION · 54' Villarreal · On: Juan Foyth · Off: Alberto Moleiro
35. 56′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 56' Liverpool win: 67% at kick-off, 47% now
36. 60′Liverpool have had 14 attempts to 8 and it is still 2–2. 2–2 · 44–40–16
37. 60′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Villarreal · On: Alex Freeman · Off: Tajon Buchanan
38. 61′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Villarreal · On: Ayoze Pérez · Off: Georges Mikautadze
39. 65′We published Liverpool at 67%. Our model now makes it 85%. 3–2 · 85–13–2
40. 65′THE CALL SWINGS · 65' Draw is now our likeliest result at 45% (was Liverpool win 43%)
41. 65′⚽ GOAL · 65' Liverpool 3–2 Villarreal
42. 65′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 65' Liverpool win: 67% at kick-off, 85% now
43. 65′THE CALL SWINGS · 65' Liverpool win is now our likeliest result at 85% (was Draw 45%)
44. 66′That is 5, and we only asked for 3.7 across ninety minutes. 3–2 · 85–13–2
45. 66′Alexis Mac Allister scores for Liverpool on 65′ — 3–2. 3–2 · 85–13–2
46. 68′We published Liverpool at 67%. Our model now makes it 98%. 4–2 · 98–2–0
47. 68′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Liverpool · On: Alexander Isak · Off: Lewis Koumas
48. 68′⚽ GOAL · 68' Liverpool 4–2 Villarreal
49. 68′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 68' Liverpool win: 67% at kick-off, 98% now
50. 69′68′: Florian Wirtz on the scoresheet for Liverpool, making it 4–2. 4–2 · 98–2–0
51. 70′6 goals already, more than the 3.7 we expected for the whole match. 4–2 · 98–2–0
52. 75′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Liverpool · On: Bradley Barcola · Off: Rio Ngumoha
53. 75′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Liverpool · On: Joe Gomez · Off: Jérémy Jacquet
54. 79′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Villarreal · On: Gerard Moreno · Off: Santi Comesaña
55. 81′We published Liverpool at 67%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 4–2 · 100–0–0
56. 83′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Liverpool · On: James McConnell · Off: Treymaurice Nyoni
57. 87′That is 7, and we only asked for 3.7 across ninety minutes. 4–3 · 95–5–0
58. 87′⚽ GOAL · 87' Liverpool 4–3 Villarreal
59. 88′Villarreal pull one back on 87′ through Tani Oluwaseyi. 4–3. 4–3 · 96–4–0
60. FTFULL TIME Liverpool 4–3 Villarreal
61. FTLiverpool 4–3 Villarreal · Liverpool win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.