Lille v Galatasaray

1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Lille win at 54%.
2. 2′2′: Yunus Akgün on the scoresheet for Galatasaray, making it 0–1. 0–1 · 30–24–46
3. 2′We said Lille at 54%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 30%. 0–1 · 30–24–46
4. 2′KICK-OFF Lille v Galatasaray
5. 3′We said Lille at 54%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 0–1 · 29–24–46
6. 8′Lille level it on 7′ through Soriba Diaoune. 1–1. 1–1 · 53–26–21
7. 8′⚽ GOAL · 7' Lille 1–1 Galatasaray · Soriba Diaoune
8. 8′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 8' Lille win: 54% at kick-off, 53% now
9. 8′THE CALL SWINGS · 8' Lille win is now our likeliest result at 53% (was Galatasaray win 47%)
10. 9′Much as we predicted: Lille was 54% before kick-off and our model makes it 52% now. 1–1 · 52–26–21
11. 21′🟨 YELLOW · 21' Nabil Bentaleb · Lille
12. 39′We published Lille at 54%. Our model now makes it 80%. 2–1 · 80–16–5
13. 39′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 39' Lille win: 54% at kick-off, 44% now
14. 39′⚽ GOAL · 39' Lille 2–1 Galatasaray
15. 39′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 39' Lille win: 54% at kick-off, 80% now
16. 40′Soriba Diaoune scores for Lille on 39′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 80–16–5
17. 41′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.7 across ninety minutes. 2–1 · 80–16–5
18. 43′4 goals already, more than the 2.7 we expected for the whole match. 2–2 · 43–37–20
19. 43′⚽ GOAL · 43' Lille 2–2 Galatasaray
20. 43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' Lille win: 54% at kick-off, 43% now
21. 44′44′: Aleksey Batrakov on the scoresheet for Galatasaray, making it 2–2. 2–2 · 42–38–20
22. 45′We said Lille at 54%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 42%. 2–2 · 42–38–20
23. 45′SECOND HALF Lille 2–2 Galatasaray
24. 47′HALF-TIME Lille 2–2 Galatasaray
25. 51′We said Lille at 54%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 39%. 2–2 · 39–42–19
26. 51′We said Lille at 54%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 12%. 2–3 · 12–27–61
27. 51′⚽ GOAL · 51' Lille 2–3 Galatasaray
28. 51′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 51' Lille win: 54% at kick-off, 12% now
29. 51′THE CALL SWINGS · 51' Galatasaray win is now our likeliest result at 61% (was Lille win 41%)
30. 52′That is 5, and we only asked for 2.7 across ninety minutes. 2–3 · 12–27–61
31. 53′Galatasaray ahead on 52′ through Lucas Torreira. 2–3. 2–3 · 11–27–62
32. 58′We said Lille at 54%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 2–3 · 9–26–65
33. 60′We said Lille at 54%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 2%. 2–4 · 2–7–91
34. 60′🟨 YELLOW · 59' Benjamin André · Lille
35. 60′⚽ GOAL · 60' Lille 2–4 Galatasaray
36. 60′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 60' Lille win: 54% at kick-off, 2% now
37. 61′6 goals already, more than the 2.7 we expected for the whole match. 2–4 · 1–7–92
38. 61′Victor Osimhen scores for Galatasaray on 61′ — 2–4. 2–4 · 1–7–92
39. 63′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Galatasaray · On: Mario Lemina · Off: Gabriel
40. 63′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Lille · On: Maurits Kjaergaard · Off: Benjamin André
41. 64′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Lille · On: Olivier Giroud · Off: Ngal'ayel Mukau
42. 64′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Lille · On: Nianzou Tanguy Kouassi · Off: Maxima Goffi
43. 76′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Lille · On: Basar Onal · Off: Nabil Bentaleb
44. 76′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Lille · On: Gaëtan Perrin · Off: Soriba Diaoune
45. 76′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Galatasaray · On: Eren Elmalı · Off: Baris Alper Yilmaz
46. 76′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Galatasaray · On: Leroy Sané · Off: Yunus Akgün
47. 85′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Galatasaray · On: Deniz Gül · Off: Victor Osimhen
48. 85′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Galatasaray · On: İlkay Gündoğan · Off: Aleksey Batrakov
49. 86′🟨 YELLOW · 85' Ismail Jakobs · Galatasaray
50. 90′🟨 YELLOW · 89' Gaëtan Perrin · Lille
51. 93′Full time, 2–4. We called Lille at 54% — wrong, and it goes on the record that way. 2–4 · 0–0–100
52. FTFULL TIME Lille 2–4 Galatasaray
53. FTLille 2–4 Galatasaray · Lille win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.