Lens v Sporting CP prediction · UEFA Champions League

Full timeGraded 13 Oct 20:20

Lens 0–2 Sporting CP LENS WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Lens win~~40%

~~The market said~~37%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.649

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.607

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 23 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Lens win at 40%.
1′KICK-OFF Lens v Sporting CP
2′Little has changed for our model: Lens 40% before kick-off, 40% now. 0–0 · 40–25–35
22′⚽ GOAL · 22' Lens 0–1 Sporting CP
23′We said Lens at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 16%. 0–1 · 16–22–62
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 23' Lens win: 40% at kick-off, 16% now
23′THE CALL SWINGS · 23' Sporting CP win is now our likeliest result at 62% (was Lens win 16%)
23′⚽ GOAL · 22' Lens 0–1 Sporting CP · Luis Suárez
24′Sporting CP ahead on 22′ through Luis Suárez. 0–1. 0–1 · 15–22–62
29′We said Lens at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–22–63
30′8.0 shots for Lens, 1.0 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 0–1 · 14–22–63
31′The goal count is tracking the 3.0 we expected. 0–1 · 14–22–64
45′12.0 shots for Lens, 5.0 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 0–1 · 10–23–67
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Lens win: 40% at kick-off, 10% now
45′HALF-TIME Lens 0–1 Sporting CP
46′SECOND HALF Lens 0–1 Sporting CP
50′We said Lens at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–23–68
58′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Lens · On: Ruben Aguilar · Off: Samson Baidoo Corrected
59′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Lens · On: Odsonne Édouard · Off: Franjo Ivanovic Corrected
62′16.0 shots for Lens, 8.0 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 0–1 · 6–21–73
67′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Sporting CP · On: Luís Guilherme · Off: Geny Catamo Corrected
68′We said Lens at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–1 · 4–19–76
69′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Lens · On: Michał Skóraś · Off: Saud Abdulhamid Corrected
69′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Lens · On: Mezian Soares Mesloub · Off: Junior Kadile Corrected
72′🟨 YELLOW · 71' Michaël Cuisance · Lens
74′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Sporting CP · On: Silas Andersen · Off: João Simões Corrected
74′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Sporting CP · On: Jesse Derry · Off: Nestory Irankunda Corrected
75′⚽ GOAL · 74' Lens 0–2 Sporting CP · Issa Doumbia
76′Issa Doumbia scores for Sporting CP on 74′ — 0–2. 0–2 · 0–2–98
76′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 76' Lens win: 40% at kick-off, 0% now
81′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Lens · On: Yassine Titraoui · Off: Amadou Haidara Corrected
82′🟨 YELLOW · 81' Florian Thauvin · Lens
86′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Sporting CP · On: Fotis Ioannidis · Off: Luis Suárez Corrected
86′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Sporting CP · On: Kaique Pereira Azarias · Off: Issa Doumbia Corrected
89′20.0 shots for Lens, 10.0 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 0–2 · 0–0–100
FTFULL TIME Lens 0–2 Sporting CP
FTLens 0–2 Sporting CP · Lens win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pass

Our analyst’s one-line verdict on how this match goes.

What decides it

1

The reason that decides itThe fact behind it, in one line.

– –

2

Where the chances come fromThe figure that shows it, in one line.

– –

3

What could tip the balanceWhat could change it, in one line.

– –

The AI’s read on this match

The verdict, the three reasons that decide it, what would change it and the players to watch — checked live during the game, with a review after full time. Included with a pass.

See the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 13 Oct 17:01 · locked at kick-off

Lens win40%

Draw25%

Sporting CP win35%

Kick-offTUE 13 OCT · 17:45

VenueStade Bollaert-Delelis

RefereeIgor Pajac

Line-ups

Lens

3-4-2-1

Sporting CP

4-3-3

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Lens

Sporting CP

33Days since last match34

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
32	Sporting CP	1	+2	3
37	Lens	1	+1	3

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

In the news

from the pressAll ›

Sporting CP predicted XI v Lens: Luis Suarez to start, Zeno Debast outGet French Football News · 8 hours ago · Sporting CP, Lens Lens predicted XI v Sporting CP: Abdallah Sima and Jonathan Gradit outGet French Football News · 8 hours ago · Lens, Sporting CP

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Lens

3-4-2-1

40 R. Risser

25 I. Ganiou

6 S. Baidoo

32 K. Antonio

23 S. Abdulhamid

27 M. Cuisance

21 A. Haidara

14 M. Udol

10 F. Thauvin

28 J. Kadile

29 F. Ivanovic

Coach · Yannick Cahuzac

Substitutes

16 · M. Gorgelin

4 · N. Celik

31 · S. Sagnan

2 · R. Aguilar

20 · J. Todibo

9 · T. Hazard

8 · Y. Titraoui

5 · A. Bulatovic

38 · M. Soares

22 · M. Skoras

7 · F. Sotoca

11 · O. Edouard

Sporting CP

4-3-3

30 Kaique Pereira

22 I. Fresneda

72 E. Quaresma

25 G. Inacio

20 M. Araujo

8 J. Simoes

5 S. Altimira

77 I. Doumbia

10 G. Catamo

97 L. Suarez

19 N. Irankunda

Coach · Rui Borges

Substitutes

1 · R. Silva

13 · G. Vagiannidis

55 · I. Ba

18 · M. Zekri

4 · S. Andersen

21 · Pedro Lima

73 · E. Felicissimo

58 · F. Goncalves

9 · R. Nel

31 · Luis Guilherme

7 · F. Ioannidis

28 · J. Derry

Our number · lens winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 13 Oct 17:01 · locked at kick-off

40% The market37%

Us40%

~~Market~~37%

We make Lens a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 37%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.4.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Lens win	40%	37%	+3
Draw	25%	26%	−1
Sporting CP win	35%	37%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	57%	60%	−4
Both teams to score	60%	63%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	80%	80%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	34%	39%	−5
Lens or draw	65%	63%	+2
Lens clean sheet	24%	–	–
Sporting CP clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.7%

0123450 5.6 7.0 5.2 2.5 1 7.6 11.7 8.0 3.8 2 6.2 8.7 6.2 2.9 3 3.2 4.5 3.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Lens down, Sporting CP across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates every club on one scale from 408,274 league, cup and continental matches in 638 leagues up to 13 Oct 2026: each club against its own league, and the leagues against each other through the matches between them, weighting recent matches more.

The two leagues

Lens play in the Ligue 1, Sporting CP in the Primeira Liga.

Venue

Allows for home advantage: Lens are at home.

Head to head

No previous meeting between these two in this competition, so this step adds nothing.

What the model expects

1.54 goals for Lens, 1.42 for Sporting CP. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No meetings between these two in UEFA Champions League since 2021. Cup ties and meetings in other competitions are not counted here.

Form · last six in UEFA Champions League

LENS

WDLLWW2–1 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 0–6 · 2–1 · 3–2

SPORTING CP

WLWLDW3–2 · 0–3 · 3–0 · 0–1 · 0–0 · 3–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Sabah FA	9	+5	18
2	Fenerbahçe	7	+5	15
3	Levski Sofia	8	+3	15
4	Hapoel Beer Sheva	6	+4	12
5	Slovan Bratislava	7	0	12
6	Dinamo Zagreb	6	+4	9
7	Ararat-Armenia	6	+1	9
8	Kairat Almaty	6	+1	9
9	Bodo/Glimt	5	0	8
10	Kauno Žalgiris	6	−4	8
11	AEK Athens FC	3	+5	7
12	Universitatea Craiova	4	+3	7
13	Celje	6	+1	7
14	KI Klaksvik	4	+1	7
15	Vikingur Reykjavik	4	0	7
16	FK Crvena Zvezda	4	+6	6
17	Egnatia Rrogozhinë	4	+5	6
18	Sturm Graz	4	+3	6
19	Shamrock Rovers	4	+1	6
20	Aarhus	4	−3	6
21	Larne	4	−7	6
22	FC Iberia 1999	4	−1	5
23	Lincoln Red Imps FC	4	−1	5
24	Lyon	4	+1	4
25	Viking	3	0	4
26	Mjallby AIF	4	0	4
27	Paris Saint Germain	1	+5	3
28	Bayern München	1	+5	3
29	Barcelona	1	+4	3
30	Manchester United	1	+4	3
31	Como	1	+3	3
32	Sporting CP	1	+2	3
33	VfB Stuttgart	1	+2	3
34	Manchester City	1	+2	3
35	Aston Villa	1	+1	3
36	Borussia Dortmund	1	+1	3
37	Lens	1	+1	3
38	Real Betis	1	+1	3
39	Liverpool	1	+1	3
40	Real Madrid	1	+1	3
41	Arsenal	1	+1	3
42	Celtic	2	0	3
43	Lech Poznan	2	0	3
44	Vardar Skopje	2	0	3
45	Omonia Nicosia	2	0	3
46	Lask Linz	3	−1	3
47	Riga	2	−1	3
48	Floriana	2	−2	3
49	Sparta Praha	2	−2	3
50	KuPS	4	−3	3
51	Union St. Gilloise	2	0	2
52	FC Thun	2	0	2
53	Olympiakos Piraeus	2	0	2
54	NEC Nijmegen	4	−5	2
55	AS Roma	1	0	1
56	PSV Eindhoven	1	0	1
57	Shakhtar Donetsk	1	0	1
58	Flora Tallinn	2	−1	1
59	Drita	2	−1	1
60	Gyori ETO FC	2	−1	1
61	Gornik Zabrze	2	−1	1
62	Inter Club d'Escaldes	2	−2	1
63	Borac Banja Luka	2	−4	1
64	Petrocub	2	−5	1
65	Club Brugge KV	1	−1	0
66	Lille	1	−1	0
67	Slavia Praha	1	−1	0
68	Villarreal	1	−1	0
69	Atletico Madrid	1	−1	0
70	Inter	1	−1	0
71	Napoli	1	−1	0
72	Atert Bissen	2	−2	0
73	Galatasaray	1	−2	0
74	Tre Fiori	2	−2	0
75	FC Porto	1	−2	0
76	RB Leipzig	1	−3	0
77	Sutjeska	2	−3	0
78	The New Saints	2	−3	0
79	Feyenoord	1	−4	0
80	ML Vitebsk	2	−4	0
81	Heart Of Midlothian	2	−6	0