Lask Linz v Liverpool prediction · UEFA Champions League

Full timeGraded 14 Oct 20:30

Lask Linz 3–6 Liverpool LIVERPOOL WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT0–2 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Liverpool win~~79%

~~The market said~~69%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.070

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.149

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay20 notes · 27 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Liverpool win at 79%.
0′Much as we predicted: Liverpool was 79% before kick-off and our model makes it 79% now. 0–0 · 8–13–79
1′KICK-OFF Lask Linz v Liverpool
18′7.0 shots for Liverpool, 2.0 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 0–0 · 9–17–74
23′Ronald Araujo scores for Liverpool on 22′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 2–7–90
23′⚽ GOAL · 22' Lask Linz 0–1 Liverpool · Ronald Araujo
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 23' Liverpool win: 79% at kick-off, 90% now
24′24′ and it is 0–1: Bradley Barcola on the scoresheet for Liverpool. 0–1 · 2–7–90
24′⚽ GOAL · 24' Lask Linz 0–2 Liverpool · Bradley Barcola
25′We published Liverpool at 79%. Our model now makes it 98%. 0–2 · 0–2–98
37′Liverpool ahead on 37′ through Bradley Barcola. 0–2. 0–2 · 0–2–98
38′We published Liverpool at 79%. Our model now makes it 100%. 0–3 · 0–0–100
38′⚽ GOAL · 37' Lask Linz 0–3 Liverpool · Bradley Barcola (assist Florian Wirtz)
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 38' Liverpool win: 79% at kick-off, 100% now
45′SECOND HALF Lask Linz 0–3 Liverpool
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Lask Linz · On: Florian Flecker · Off: Kasper Jorgensen
50′Jeremie Frimpong scores for Liverpool on 51′ — 0–3. 0–3 · 0–0–100
51′4 goals already, more than the 3.8 we expected for the whole match. 0–4 · 0–0–100
51′⚽ GOAL · 51' Lask Linz 0–4 Liverpool · Jeremie Frimpong
61′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Liverpool · On: Virgil van Dijk · Off: Jérémy Jacquet
61′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Liverpool · On: Joe Gomez · Off: Ronald Araujo
62′63′ and it is 0–4: Robert Ljubicic on the scoresheet for Lask Linz. 0–4 · 0–0–100
62′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Lask Linz · On: Robert Ljubicic · Off: Melayro Bogarde
63′That is 5, and we only asked for 3.8 across ninety minutes. 1–4 · 0–0–100
63′⚽ GOAL · 63' Lask Linz 1–4 Liverpool · Robert Ljubicic (assist Yvan Dibango)
65′Liverpool ahead on 66′ through Bradley Barcola. 1–4. 1–4 · 0–0–100
67′6 goals already, more than the 3.8 we expected for the whole match. 1–5 · 0–0–100
67′⚽ GOAL · 66' Lask Linz 1–5 Liverpool · Bradley Barcola (assist Jeremie Frimpong)
69′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Lask Linz · On: Sasa Kalajdzic · Off: Samuel Adeniran
69′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Lask Linz · On: Daniel Elfadli · Off: Alessandro Schöpf
71′Lewis Koumas scores for Liverpool on 72′ — 1–5. 1–5 · 0–0–100
71′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Liverpool · On: Víctor Muñoz · Off: Bradley Barcola
73′That is 7, and we only asked for 3.8 across ninety minutes. 1–6 · 0–0–100
73′⚽ GOAL · 72' Lask Linz 1–6 Liverpool · Lewis Koumas (assist Jeremie Frimpong)
74′74′ and it is 2–6: Florian Flecker on the scoresheet for Lask Linz. 2–6 · 0–0–100
74′⚽ GOAL · 74' Lask Linz 2–6 Liverpool · Florian Flecker (assist Yvan Dibango)
75′8 goals already, more than the 3.8 we expected for the whole match. 2–6 · 0–0–100
77′Lask Linz pull one back on 77′ through Florian Flecker. 2–6. 2–6 · 0–0–100
78′That is 9, and we only asked for 3.8 across ninety minutes. 3–6 · 0–0–100
78′⚽ GOAL · 77' Lask Linz 3–6 Liverpool · Florian Flecker (assist Yvan Dibango)
79′We published Liverpool at 79%. Our model now makes it 100%. 3–6 · 0–0–100
79′🟨 YELLOW · 80' Daniel Elfadli · Lask Linz
81′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Lask Linz · On: Naël Mamadou Lamine Kane · Off: Christoph Lang
85′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Liverpool · On: Alexis Mac Allister · Off: Treymaurice Nyoni
85′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Liverpool · On: Luke Chambers · Off: Rio Ngumoha
86′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Liverpool · On: Alexis Mac Allister · Off: Treymaurice Nyoni
86′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Liverpool · On: Luke Chambers · Off: Rio Ngumoha
FTFULL TIME Lask Linz 3–6 Liverpool
FTLask Linz 3–6 Liverpool · Liverpool win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 0–2 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Example · Everton v Chelsea · written before kick-off

Chelsea are slight favourites, but Everton are close behind.

Chelsea are our model’s narrow favourites at 38%, with Everton at 35% and the draw at 27%. Chelsea remain below an even chance: this is a slight lean towards the visitors, not a strong likelihood.

Everton are at home and unbeaten in the 2026/27 Premier League: two wins and four draws from six matches, earning 10 points, scoring eight and conceding five.

The AI’s read on Lask Linz v LiverpoolBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 14 Oct 16:59 · locked at kick-off

Lask Linz win8%

Draw13%

Liverpool win79%

Kick-offWED 14 OCT · 17:45

VenueRaiffeisen Arena

RefereeTobias Stieler

Line-ups

Lask Linz

5-4-1

Liverpool

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Lask Linz

Liverpool

36Days since last match35

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
15	Liverpool	1	1	3
27	Lask Linz	1	-1	0

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

In the news

from the pressAll ›

Liverpool XI vs LASK: Starting lineup, confirmed team news, injury latest for Champions League todayEvening Standard · 25 min ago · Liverpool, Manchester City

Lask v Liverpool: Champions League – liveThe Guardian · 44 min ago · Liverpool

What does LASK stand for? Name of Liverpool's Champions League opponents explainedMirror Football · 59 min ago · Liverpool

Alex Scott has issued Andoni Iraola verdict as Liverpool and Chelsea learn conditions for £100m transferEvening Standard · 1 hour ago · Liverpool, Chelsea, Bournemouth

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Lask Linz

5-4-1

1 L. Jungwirth

20 K. Jørgensen

4 X. Mbuyamba

43 Alemão

16 A. Andrade

25 Y. Dibango

9 K. Daněk

6 M. Bogarde

18 A. Schöpf

27 C. Lang

7 S. Adeniran

Coach · D. Kühbauer

Substitutes

23 · Daniel Elfadli

29 · F. Flecker

3 · M. Freckleton

11 · S. Kalajdzic

45 · N. Kane

10 · R. Ljubičić

50 · Fabian Schillinger

33 · T. Schützenauer

21 · M. Verhaeghe

Liverpool

4-2-3-1

1 Alisson Becker

30 J. Frimpong

33 R. Araújo

5 J. Jacquet

21 K. Tsimikas

38 R. Gravenberch

42 T. Nyoni

73 R. Ngumoha

7 F. Wirtz

29 B. Barcola

67 L. Koumas

Coach · Andoni Iraola

Substitutes

2 · J. Gomez

6 · M. Kerkez

10 · A. Mac Allister

25 · G. Mamardashvili

53 · J. McConnell

23 · Víctor Muñoz

4 · V. van Dijk

28 · F. Woodman

76 · J. Danns

44 · L. Chambers

92 · W. Omoruyi

82 · J. Lambie

Our number · liverpool winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 14 Oct 16:59 · locked at kick-off

79% The market69%

Us79%

~~Market~~69%

We make Liverpool a 79% chance to win. The market has them at 69%. We are 10 points more confident than the market. The model expects 0.9–2.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Lask Linz v Liverpool~~0.87 – 2.91

~~Last six in UEFA Champions League~~W1 D0 L2 · W3 D0 L3

~~Table places · points 0 v 3~~27 v 15

~~The market · Liverpool win~~69% · ours 79%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · liverpool win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 76% to 69% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Lask Linz win	8%	12%	−4
Draw	13%	19%	−6
Liverpool win	79%	69%	+10
Over 2.5 goals	73%	62%	+11
Both teams to score	55%	54%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	89%	82%	+8
Over 3.5 goals	52%	41%	+11
Lask Linz or draw	21%	31%	−10
Lask Linz clean sheet	5%	–	–
Liverpool clean sheet	42%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–2 at 9.7%

0123450 2.5 6.5 9.7 9.4 6.8 4.01 6.0 8.4 8.2 5.9 3.42 2.5 3.7 3.5 2.6 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Lask Linz down, Liverpool across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates every club on one scale from 407,336 league, cup and continental matches in 638 leagues up to 14 Oct 2026: each club against its own league, and the leagues against each other through the matches between them, weighting recent matches more.

The two leagues

Lask Linz play in the Bundesliga, Liverpool in the Premier League.

Venue

Allows for home advantage: Lask Linz are at home.

Head to head

No previous meeting between these two in this competition, so this step adds nothing.

What the model expects

0.87 goals for Lask Linz, 2.91 for Liverpool. Most likely score 0–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No meetings between these two in UEFA Champions League since 2021. Cup ties and meetings in other competitions are not counted here.

Form · last six in UEFA Champions League

LASK LINZ

LWL0–3 · 4–1 · 0–1

LIVERPOOL

WLWLLW6–0 · 0–1 · 4–0 · 0–2 · 0–2 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Barcelona	2	7	6
2	Sporting CP	2	4	6
3	Arsenal	2	4	6
4	Bayern München	2	5	4
5	Paris Saint Germain	1	5	3
6	Como	1	3	3
7	Manchester United	2	2	3
8	VfB Stuttgart	1	2	3
9	Manchester City	1	2	3
10	Villarreal	2	1	3
11	Aston Villa	1	1	3
12	Real Betis	1	1	3
13	Atletico Madrid	2	1	3
14	Borussia Dortmund	1	1	3
15	Liverpool	1	1	3
16	Real Madrid	1	1	3
17	AEK Athens FC	1	1	3
18	Club Brugge KV	2	0	3
19	Lens	2	-1	3
20	RB Leipzig	2	-2	3
21	Sabah FA	2	-2	3
22	AS Roma	1	0	1
23	Shakhtar Donetsk	1	0	1
24	Fenerbahçe	1	0	1
25	PSV Eindhoven	2	-1	1
26	Viking	2	-2	1
27	Lask Linz	1	-1	0
28	Inter	2	-2	0
29	FC Porto	1	-2	0
30	Slavia Praha	2	-3	0
31	Napoli	2	-3	0
32	Lille	2	-4	0
33	Feyenoord	1	-4	0
34	Galatasaray	2	-5	0
35	Slovan Bratislava	1	-5	0
36	Bodo/Glimt	1	-5	0