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Model 1.1

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Inter v Club Brugge KV

Inter
3–4Full time
Club Brugge KV

UEFA Champions League · TUE 13 OCT · San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza

Full timeGraded 13 Oct 22:30
Inter 3–4 Club Brugge KV INTER WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Inter win63%
The market said77%
Brier score, this match · lower is better1.109
The market’s Brier score1.460

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay21 notes · 38 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Inter win at 63%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Inter 63% before kick-off, 63% now. 0–0 · 63–19–18
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Inter v Club Brugge KV
  4. 27′🟨 YELLOW · 27' Jorne Spileers · Club Brugge KV
  5. 29′🟨 YELLOW · 29' Hakan Çalhanoğlu · Inter
  6. 30′⚽ GOAL · 30' Inter 0–1 Club Brugge KV · Nicolo Tresoldi
  7. 31′Nicolo Tresoldi scores for Club Brugge KV on 30′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 29–26–45
  8. 31′We said Inter at 63%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 0–1 · 29–26–45
  9. 31′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 31' Inter win: 63% at kick-off, 29% now
  10. 31′THE CALL SWINGS · 31' Club Brugge KV win is now our likeliest result at 45% (was Inter win 29%)
  11. 32′The goal count is tracking the 3.4 we expected. 0–1 · 28–27–45
  12. 36′10.0 shots for Inter, 4.0 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 0–1 · 26–27–47
  13. 39′🟨 YELLOW · 39' Manuel Akanji · Inter
  14. 40′We said Inter at 63%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–1 · 24–28–48
  15. 42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Inter win: 63% at kick-off, 23% now
  16. 43′⚽ GOAL · 43' Inter 1–1 Club Brugge KV · Nicolo Tresoldi
  17. 44′44′ and it is 1–1: Lautaro Martínez on the scoresheet for Inter. 1–1 · 50–31–19
  18. 44′⚽ GOAL · 44' Inter 1–1 Club Brugge KV · Lautaro Martínez
  19. 44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Inter win: 63% at kick-off, 50% now
  20. 44′THE CALL SWINGS · 44' Inter win is now our likeliest result at 50% (was Club Brugge KV win 19%)
  21. 45′We said Inter at 63%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 50%. 1–1 · 50–32–19
  22. 45′14.0 shots for Inter, 6.0 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 1–1 · 50–32–19
  23. 45′Inter have had 17.0 attempts to 6.0 and it is still 1–1. 1–1 · 50–32–19
  24. 45′SECOND HALF Inter 1–1 Club Brugge KV
  25. 46′We said Inter at 63%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 49%. 1–1 · 49–32–19
  26. 61′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Club Brugge KV · On: Lee Han-beom · Off: Jorne Spileers Corrected
  27. 61′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Club Brugge KV · On: Félix Lemaréchal · Off: Hugo Vetlesen Corrected
  28. 62′⚽ GOAL · 62' Inter 1–2 Club Brugge KV · Nicolo Tresoldi
  29. 67′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Inter · On: Petar Sučić · Off: Hakan Çalhanoğlu Corrected
  30. 67′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Inter · On: Pio Esposito · Off: Marcus Thuram Corrected
  31. 70′🟨 YELLOW · 70' Jan Virgili Tenas · Club Brugge KV
  32. 72′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Club Brugge KV · On: Hugo Siquet · Off: Kyriani Sabbe Corrected
  33. 72′🟨 YELLOW · 72' Lee Han-beom · Club Brugge KV
  34. 74′⚽ GOAL · 74' Inter 1–3 Club Brugge KV · Nicolo Tresoldi
  35. 76′Nicolo Tresoldi scores for Club Brugge KV on 74′ — 1–3. 1–3 · 0–4–96
  36. 76′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 76' Inter win: 63% at kick-off, 0% now
  37. 76′THE CALL SWINGS · 76' Club Brugge KV win is now our likeliest result at 96% (was Inter win 0%)
  38. 77′We said Inter at 63%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 0%. 1–3 · 0–3–96
  39. 78′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Inter · On: Ange-Yoan Bonny · Off: Nicolò Barella Corrected
  40. 78′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Inter · On: Djed Spence · Off: Federico Dimarco Corrected
  41. 80′24.0 shots for Inter, 9.0 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 2–3 · 2–18–80
  42. 80′⚽ GOAL · 80' Inter 2–3 Club Brugge KV · Lautaro Martínez
  43. 82′🟨 YELLOW · 82' Ivan Leko · Club Brugge KV
  44. 83′🟨 YELLOW · 81' Ivan Leko · Club Brugge KV
  45. 83′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Club Brugge KV · On: Romeo Vermant · Off: Nicolo Tresoldi Corrected
  46. 83′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Club Brugge KV · On: Mamadou Diakhon · Off: Jan Virgili Tenas Corrected
  47. 85′81′ and it is 2–3: Lautaro Martínez on the scoresheet for Inter. 2–3 · 1–11–88
  48. 86′5 goals already, more than the 3.4 we expected for the whole match. 2–3 · 1–11–89
  49. 87′⚽ GOAL · 87' Inter 2–4 Club Brugge KV · Nicolo Tresoldi
  50. 88′Club Brugge KV ahead on 87′ through Romeo Vermant. 2–4. 2–4 · 0–0–100
  51. 88′That is 6, and we only asked for 3.4 across ninety minutes. 2–4 · 0–0–100
  52. 89′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Inter · On: Aleksandar Stankovic · Off: Piotr Zieliński Corrected
  53. 90′Inter have had 29.0 attempts to 14.0 and it is still 2–4. 2–4 · 0–0–100
  54. 92′⚽ GOAL · 92' Inter 3–4 Club Brugge KV · Lautaro Martínez
  55. 93′Ange-Yoan Bonny scores for Inter on 90′ — 3–4. 3–4 · 0–4–96
  56. 94′7 goals already, more than the 3.4 we expected for the whole match. 3–4 · 0–2–98
  57. 96′🟨 YELLOW · 96' Félix Lemaréchal · Club Brugge KV
  58. 97′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 97' Inter win: 63% at kick-off, 0% now
  59. 97′THE CALL SWINGS · 97' Club Brugge KV win is now our likeliest result at 98% (was Inter win 0%)
  60. FTFULL TIME Inter 3–4 Club Brugge KV
  61. FTInter 3–4 Club Brugge KV · Inter win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pass

Our analyst’s one-line verdict on how this match goes.

What decides it

1

The reason that decides itThe fact behind it, in one line.

– –
2

Where the chances come fromThe figure that shows it, in one line.

– –
3

What could tip the balanceWhat could change it, in one line.

– –
The AI’s read on this match

The verdict, the three reasons that decide it, what would change it and the players to watch — checked live during the game, with a review after full time. Included with a pass.

See the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 13 Oct 19:33 · locked at kick-off

Inter win63%
Draw20%
Club Brugge KV win18%

Kick-offTUE 13 OCT · 20:00

VenueSan Siro/Giuseppe Meazza

RefereeRohit Saggi

Line-ups

Inter

3-5-2

Club Brugge KV

4-5-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Inter

Club Brugge KV

35Days since last match35
0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#TEAMPGDPTS
65Club Brugge KV1−10
70Inter1−10

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

In the news

from the pressAll ›
Marotta: ‘Inter duty to do well in Champions League, but every game is difficult’Football Italia · 1 min ago · Inter Tresoldi: ‘A dream come true, feels like a derby’ against Inter in Champions LeagueFootball Italia · 27 min ago · Inter Champions League line-ups: Inter vs. Club BruggeFootball Italia · 44 min ago · Inter Champions League Liveblog: Inter vs. Club Brugge, Villarreal vs. NapoliFootball Italia · 57 min ago · Inter, Villarreal, Napoli

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Inter

3-5-2

1 J. Martinez

31 Y. Bisseck

25 M. Akanji

95 A. Bastoni

17 A. Diouf

23 N. Barella

20 H. Calhanoglu

7 P. Zielinski

32 F. Dimarco

9 M. Thuram

10 L. Martinez

Coach · Cristian Chivu

Substitutes

49 · I. Provedel

12 · R. Di Gennaro

46 · L. Bovio

28 · B. Pavard

99 · D. Spence

22 · H. Mkhitaryan

5 · A. Stankovic

8 · P. Sucic

30 · Carlos Augusto

94 · F. Esposito

11 · Luis Henrique

14 · A. Bonny

Club Brugge KV

4-5-1

1 Y. Sommer

64 K. Sabbe

58 J. Spileers

44 B. Mechele

65 J. Seys

9 C. Forbs

10 H. Vetlesen

8 F. Potts

20 H. Vanaken

11 J. Virgili

7 N. Tresoldi

Coach · Ivan Leko

Substitutes

29 · N. Jackers

81 · A. Vanden Driessche

41 · H. Siquet

3 · Lee Han-Beom

32 · M. Dams

16 · C. Tsawa

62 · L. Audoor

80 · F. Lemarechal

17 · R. Vermant

39 · M. Robberechts

67 · M. Diakhon

77 · A. Vasovic

Our number · inter winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 13 Oct 19:33 · locked at kick-off
63% The market77%
Us63%
Market77%

We make Inter a 63% chance to win. The market has them at 77%. We are 15 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.3–1.2.

How the number movedSince we published
60%65%70%75%80% 9 OCT 06:2113 OCT 17:48
Our probability · inter win The market, margin stripped

Published at 62%, 63% now. The market has gone from 74% to 77% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Inter win63%77%−15
Draw20%15%+5
Club Brugge KV win18%8%+9
Over 2.5 goals67%71%−4
Both teams to score62%56%+6
Over 1.5 goals86%86%0
Over 3.5 goals45%52%−7
Inter or draw82%92%−9
Inter clean sheet32%––
Club Brugge KV clean sheet10%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 9.7%
0123450 3.5 3.4 2.1 1 7.0 8.7 4.9 2 8.4 9.7 5.6 2.1 3 6.4 7.4 4.3 4 3.7 4.2 2.4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Inter down, Club Brugge KV across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No meetings between these two in UEFA Champions League since 2021. Cup ties and meetings in other competitions are not counted here.

Form · last six in UEFA Champions League

INTER

LLWLLL0–1 · 1–3 · 2–0 · 1–3 · 1–2 · 1–2

CLUB BRUGGE KV

LWWDLL0–3 · 4–1 · 3–0 · 3–3 · 1–4 · 2–3

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Sabah FA9+518
2Fenerbahçe7+515
3Levski Sofia8+315
4Hapoel Beer Sheva6+412
5Slovan Bratislava7012
6Dinamo Zagreb6+49
7Ararat-Armenia6+19
8Kairat Almaty6+19
9Bodo/Glimt508
10Kauno Žalgiris6−48
11AEK Athens FC3+57
12Universitatea Craiova4+37
13Celje6+17
14KI Klaksvik4+17
15Vikingur Reykjavik407
16FK Crvena Zvezda4+66
17Egnatia Rrogozhinë4+56
18Sturm Graz4+36
19Shamrock Rovers4+16
20Aarhus4−36
21Larne4−76
22FC Iberia 19994−15
23Lincoln Red Imps FC4−15
24Lyon4+14
25Viking304
26Mjallby AIF404
27Paris Saint Germain1+53
28Bayern München1+53
29Barcelona1+43
30Manchester United1+43
31Como1+33
32Sporting CP1+23
33VfB Stuttgart1+23
34Manchester City1+23
35Aston Villa1+13
36Borussia Dortmund1+13
37Lens1+13
38Real Betis1+13
39Liverpool1+13
40Real Madrid1+13
41Arsenal1+13
42Celtic203
43Lech Poznan203
44Vardar Skopje203
45Omonia Nicosia203
46Lask Linz3−13
47Riga2−13
48Floriana2−23
49Sparta Praha2−23
50KuPS4−33
51Union St. Gilloise202
52FC Thun202
53Olympiakos Piraeus202
54NEC Nijmegen4−52
55AS Roma101
56PSV Eindhoven101
57Shakhtar Donetsk101
58Flora Tallinn2−11
59Drita2−11
60Gyori ETO FC2−11
61Gornik Zabrze2−11
62Inter Club d'Escaldes2−21
63Borac Banja Luka2−41
64Petrocub2−51
65Club Brugge KV1−10
66Lille1−10
67Slavia Praha1−10
68Villarreal1−10
69Atletico Madrid1−10
70Inter1−10
71Napoli1−10
72Atert Bissen2−20
73Galatasaray1−20
74Tre Fiori2−20
75FC Porto1−20
76RB Leipzig1−30
77Sutjeska2−30
78The New Saints2−30
79Feyenoord1−40
80ML Vitebsk2−40
81Heart Of Midlothian2−60

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.