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Galatasaray v Barcelona

Galatasaray

1–4Full time

Barcelona

UEFA Champions League · TUE 13 OCT · Rams Park

Full timeGraded 13 Oct 22:30

Galatasaray 1–4 Barcelona BARCELONA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT1–2 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Barcelona win~~71%

~~The market said~~75%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.128

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.095

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 31 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Barcelona win at 71%.
1′Much as we predicted: Barcelona was 71% before kick-off and our model makes it 71% now. 0–0 · 14–15–71
1′KICK-OFF Galatasaray v Barcelona
27′⚽ GOAL · 28' Galatasaray 0–0 Barcelona · Aleksey Batrakov
28′⚽ GOAL · 28' Galatasaray 1–0 Barcelona · Aleksey Batrakov
29′28′ and it is 1–0: Aleksey Batrakov on the scoresheet for Galatasaray. 1–0 · 37–25–39
29′⚽ GOAL · 29' Galatasaray 1–0 Barcelona · Aleksey Batrakov
29′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 29' Barcelona win: 71% at kick-off, 39% now
30′We said Barcelona at 71%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 38%. 1–0 · 37–25–38
33′⚽ GOAL · 34' Galatasaray 1–0 Barcelona · Baris Alper Yilmaz
34′Galatasaray ahead on 34′ through Baris Alper Yilmaz. 1–0. 1–0 · 38–26–36
37′We said Barcelona at 71%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 1–0 · 40–26–34
37′THE CALL SWINGS · 37' Galatasaray win is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Barcelona win 34%)
42′⚽ GOAL · 43' Galatasaray 1–0 Barcelona · João Cancelo
43′Barcelona level it on 43′ through João Cancelo. 1–1. 1–1 · 16–26–58
43′⚽ GOAL · 43' Galatasaray 1–1 Barcelona · João Cancelo
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' Barcelona win: 71% at kick-off, 58% now
43′THE CALL SWINGS · 43' Barcelona win is now our likeliest result at 58% (was Galatasaray win 16%)
44′We said Barcelona at 71%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 58%. 1–1 · 16–26–58
45′Barcelona have had 8.0 attempts to 3.0 and it is still 1–1. 1–1 · 16–27–57
45′SECOND HALF Galatasaray 1–1 Barcelona
46′Goals are coming at about the 4.2 we expected. 1–1 · 16–27–57
51′⚽ GOAL · 50' Galatasaray 1–2 Barcelona · Fermín López (assist Lamine Yamal)
54′⚽ GOAL · 53' Galatasaray 1–3 Barcelona · Anthony Gordon
57′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Galatasaray · On: Lesley Ugochukwu · Off: Mario Lemina Corrected
57′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Galatasaray · On: Gabriel · Off: Aleksey Batrakov Corrected
57′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Galatasaray · On: Leroy Sané · Off: Yunus Akgün Corrected
57′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Barcelona · On: Gabriel Jesus · Off: Daniel Olmo Carvajal Corrected
58′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Barcelona · On: Gabriel Jesus · Off: Daniel Olmo Carvajal Corrected
58′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Barcelona · On: Karim Adeyemi · Off: Anthony Gordon Corrected
63′🟨 YELLOW · 64' Rafael Leão · Galatasaray
66′⚽ GOAL · 65' Galatasaray 1–4 Barcelona · Karim Adeyemi
67′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Galatasaray · On: Roland Sallai · Off: Baris Alper Yilmaz Corrected
73′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Barcelona · On: Jules Koundé · Off: Eric García Corrected
73′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Barcelona · On: Marc Bernal · Off: Pedri Corrected
74′Barcelona ahead on 65′ through Karim Adeyemi. 1–4. 1–4 · 0–0–100
74′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 74' Barcelona win: 71% at kick-off, 100% now
75′We published Barcelona at 71%. Our model now makes it 100%. 1–4 · 0–0–100
77′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Barcelona · On: Marc Bernal · Off: Pedri Corrected
78′That is 5, and we only asked for 4.2 across ninety minutes. 1–4 · 0–0–100
81′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Galatasaray · On: Renato Nhaga · Off: Lucas Torreira Corrected
82′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Barcelona · On: Pablo Martín Páez Gavira · Off: Fermín López Corrected
85′🟨 YELLOW · 86' Roland Sallai · Galatasaray
FTFULL TIME Galatasaray 1–4 Barcelona
FTGalatasaray 1–4 Barcelona · Barcelona win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 1–2 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pass

Our analyst’s one-line verdict on how this match goes.

What decides it

The reason that decides itThe fact behind it, in one line.

– –

Where the chances come fromThe figure that shows it, in one line.

– –

What could tip the balanceWhat could change it, in one line.

– –

The AI’s read on this match

The verdict, the three reasons that decide it, what would change it and the players to watch — checked live during the game, with a review after full time. Included with a pass.

See the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 13 Oct 19:33 · locked at kick-off

Galatasaray win14%

Draw16%

Barcelona win71%

Kick-offTUE 13 OCT · 20:00

VenueRams Park

RefereeMarco Guida

Line-ups

Galatasaray

4-2-3-1

Barcelona

4-3-3

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Galatasaray

Barcelona

34Days since last match34

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
29	Barcelona	1	+4	3
73	Galatasaray	1	−2	0

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

In the news

from the pressAll ›

Four absences reshape Barcelona squad for GalatasarayFootball España · 11 hours ago · Barcelona, Galatasaray

Vinícius Suspension Puts Real Madrid’s Clásico Plans at RiskFootball España · 1 day ago · Real Madrid, Barcelona

Ex-Man City skipper Ilkay Gundogan snaps back at reporter: "Why should I?"Mirror Football · 2 days ago · Manchester City, Galatasaray

Vinícius red card overshadows Diomandé’s Real Madrid breakthroughFootball España · 2 days ago · Real Madrid, Villarreal, Barcelona

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Galatasaray

4-2-3-1

1 U. Cakir

53 B. Yilmaz

6 D. Sanchez

4 I. Jakobs

17 E. Elmali

34 L. Torreira

99 M. Lemina

11 Y. Akgun

83 A. Batrakov

27 R. Leao

45 V. Osimhen

Coach · Okan Buruk

Substitutes

24 · J. Yilmaz

70 · E. Buyuk

42 · A. Bardakci

7 · R. Sallai

3 · E. Bitshiabu

20 · I. Gundogan

8 · Gabriel Sara

18 · L. Ugochukwu

74 · R. Nhaga

10 · L. Sane

21 · D. Gul

73 · B. Lus

Barcelona

4-3-3

1 J. Garcia

24 E. Garcia

5 P. Cubarsi

18 G. Martin

2 J. Cancelo

7 Fermin

16 Rodri

8 Pedri

10 Lamine Yamal

20 D. Olmo

17 A. Gordon

Coach · Hansi Flick

Substitutes

13 · W. Szczesny

25 · D. Livakovic

23 · J. Kounde

3 · A. Balde

12 · X. Espart

6 · Gavi

22 · M. Bernal

4 · B. Farinas

9 · Gabriel Jesus

29 · H. Abdelkarim

14 · K. Adeyemi

Our number · barcelona winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 13 Oct 19:33 · locked at kick-off

71% The market75%

Us71%

~~Market~~75%

We make Barcelona a 71% chance to win. The market has them at 75%. We are 4 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–2.9.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · barcelona win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 74% to 75% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Galatasaray win	14%	11%	+3
Draw	16%	14%	+1
Barcelona win	71%	75%	−4
Over 2.5 goals	78%	79%	0
Both teams to score	68%	66%	+2
Over 1.5 goals	92%	91%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	60%	63%	−3
Galatasaray or draw	29%	25%	+4
Galatasaray clean sheet	6%	–	–
Barcelona clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–2 at 8.3%

0123450 4.4 6.6 6.4 4.6 2.71 5.9 8.3 8.0 5.8 3.42 3.6 5.2 5.0 3.6 2.13 2.2 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Galatasaray down, Barcelona across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates every club on one scale from 408,274 league, cup and continental matches in 638 leagues up to 13 Oct 2026: each club against its own league, and the leagues against each other through the matches between them, weighting recent matches more.

The two leagues

Galatasaray play in the Süper Lig, Barcelona in the La Liga.

Venue

Allows for home advantage: Galatasaray are at home.

Head to head

No previous meeting between these two in this competition, so this step adds nothing.

What the model expects

1.26 goals for Galatasaray, 2.90 for Barcelona. Most likely score 1–2.

Line-ups

Confirmed 13 Oct 19:32. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No meetings between these two in UEFA Champions League since 2021. Cup ties and meetings in other competitions are not counted here.

Form · last six in UEFA Champions League

GALATASARAY

LWLWLL0–2 · 5–2 · 0–3 · 1–0 · 0–4 · 1–3

BARCELONA

WDWLWW4–1 · 1–1 · 7–2 · 0–2 · 2–1 · 5–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Sabah FA	9	+5	18
2	Fenerbahçe	7	+5	15
3	Levski Sofia	8	+3	15
4	Hapoel Beer Sheva	6	+4	12
5	Slovan Bratislava	7	0	12
6	Dinamo Zagreb	6	+4	9
7	Ararat-Armenia	6	+1	9
8	Kairat Almaty	6	+1	9
9	Bodo/Glimt	5	0	8
10	Kauno Žalgiris	6	−4	8
11	AEK Athens FC	3	+5	7
12	Universitatea Craiova	4	+3	7
13	Celje	6	+1	7
14	KI Klaksvik	4	+1	7
15	Vikingur Reykjavik	4	0	7
16	FK Crvena Zvezda	4	+6	6
17	Egnatia Rrogozhinë	4	+5	6
18	Sturm Graz	4	+3	6
19	Shamrock Rovers	4	+1	6
20	Aarhus	4	−3	6
21	Larne	4	−7	6
22	FC Iberia 1999	4	−1	5
23	Lincoln Red Imps FC	4	−1	5
24	Lyon	4	+1	4
25	Viking	3	0	4
26	Mjallby AIF	4	0	4
27	Paris Saint Germain	1	+5	3
28	Bayern München	1	+5	3
29	Barcelona	1	+4	3
30	Manchester United	1	+4	3
31	Como	1	+3	3
32	Sporting CP	1	+2	3
33	VfB Stuttgart	1	+2	3
34	Manchester City	1	+2	3
35	Aston Villa	1	+1	3
36	Borussia Dortmund	1	+1	3
37	Lens	1	+1	3
38	Real Betis	1	+1	3
39	Liverpool	1	+1	3
40	Real Madrid	1	+1	3
41	Arsenal	1	+1	3
42	Celtic	2	0	3
43	Lech Poznan	2	0	3
44	Vardar Skopje	2	0	3
45	Omonia Nicosia	2	0	3
46	Lask Linz	3	−1	3
47	Riga	2	−1	3
48	Floriana	2	−2	3
49	Sparta Praha	2	−2	3
50	KuPS	4	−3	3
51	Union St. Gilloise	2	0	2
52	FC Thun	2	0	2
53	Olympiakos Piraeus	2	0	2
54	NEC Nijmegen	4	−5	2
55	AS Roma	1	0	1
56	PSV Eindhoven	1	0	1
57	Shakhtar Donetsk	1	0	1
58	Flora Tallinn	2	−1	1
59	Drita	2	−1	1
60	Gyori ETO FC	2	−1	1
61	Gornik Zabrze	2	−1	1
62	Inter Club d'Escaldes	2	−2	1
63	Borac Banja Luka	2	−4	1
64	Petrocub	2	−5	1
65	Club Brugge KV	1	−1	0
66	Lille	1	−1	0
67	Slavia Praha	1	−1	0
68	Villarreal	1	−1	0
69	Atletico Madrid	1	−1	0
70	Inter	1	−1	0
71	Napoli	1	−1	0
72	Atert Bissen	2	−2	0
73	Galatasaray	1	−2	0
74	Tre Fiori	2	−2	0
75	FC Porto	1	−2	0
76	RB Leipzig	1	−3	0
77	Sutjeska	2	−3	0
78	The New Saints	2	−3	0
79	Feyenoord	1	−4	0
80	ML Vitebsk	2	−4	0
81	Heart Of Midlothian	2	−6	0