FC Porto v PSV Eindhoven prediction · UEFA Champions League

Full timeGraded 20 Oct 22:30

FC Porto 0–1 PSV Eindhoven FC PORTO WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said FC Porto win~~54%

~~The market said~~63%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.920

~~The market’s Brier score~~1.131

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 22 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said FC Porto win at 54%.
1′Little has changed for our model: FC Porto 54% before kick-off, 54% now. 0–0 · 54–23–24
1′KICK-OFF FC Porto v PSV Eindhoven
35′8 shots for PSV Eindhoven, 2 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 0–0 · 46–30–23
40′🟨 YELLOW · 39' Lutsharel Geertruida · PSV Eindhoven
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' FC Porto win: 54% at kick-off, 44% now
45′HALF-TIME FC Porto 0–0 PSV Eindhoven
46′We said FC Porto at 54%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 42%. 0–0 · 42–35–22
46′SECOND HALF FC Porto 0–0 PSV Eindhoven
53′We said FC Porto at 54%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 39%. 0–0 · 39–39–21
55′Goalless on 55′ when we expected about 3.2 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 38–40–21
57′THE CALL SWINGS · 57' Draw is now our likeliest result at 42% (was FC Porto win 39%)
58′PSV Eindhoven ahead on 57′ through Guus Til. 0–1. 0–1 · 11–26–63
58′⚽ GOAL · 57' FC Porto 0–1 PSV Eindhoven · Guus Til
58′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 58' FC Porto win: 54% at kick-off, 11% now
58′THE CALL SWINGS · 58' PSV Eindhoven win is now our likeliest result at 63% (was Draw 43%)
59′We said FC Porto at 54%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 11%. 0–1 · 11–26–64
59′SUBSTITUTION · 59' FC Porto · On: André Silva · Off: Samuel Aghehowa
60′SUBSTITUTION · 59' FC Porto · On: Borja Sainz · Off: Oskar Pietuszewski
60′SUBSTITUTION · 59' FC Porto · On: Hwang In-Beom · Off: Gabri Veiga
62′We said FC Porto at 54%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–25–66
70′SUBSTITUTION · 69' FC Porto · On: João Victor de Souza Menezes · Off: Zaidu Sanusi
73′We said FC Porto at 54%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–1 · 4–21–75
73′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 73' FC Porto win: 54% at kick-off, 4% now
75′SUBSTITUTION · 74' PSV Eindhoven · On: Armando Obispo · Off: Yarek Gasiorowski
76′🟨 YELLOW · 75' Mauro Júnior · PSV Eindhoven
77′SUBSTITUTION · 76' FC Porto · On: Seko Fofana · Off: Victor Froholdt
82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' PSV Eindhoven · On: Noah Fernandez · Off: Mauro Júnior
82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' PSV Eindhoven · On: Dennis Man · Off: Esmir Bajraktarević
88′SUBSTITUTION · 88' PSV Eindhoven · On: Ryan Flamingo · Off: Filip Kostić
89′SUBSTITUTION · 88' PSV Eindhoven · On: Amir Bouhamdi · Off: Ivan Perišić
FTFULL TIME FC Porto 0–1 PSV Eindhoven
FTFC Porto 0–1 PSV Eindhoven · FC Porto win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

FC Porto are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: FC Porto 54%, draw 23%, PSV Eindhoven 24%. Over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 62%.

The AI’s read on FC Porto v PSV EindhovenBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 14 Oct 04:28 · locked at kick-off

FC Porto win54%

Draw23%

PSV Eindhoven win24%

Kick-offTUE 20 OCT · 20:00

RoundLeague stage · matchday 3

VenueEstádio do Dragão

RefereeDaniel Siebert

Line-ups

FC Porto

4-3-3

PSV Eindhoven

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

FC Porto

PSV Eindhoven

6Days since last match3

Last match: 14 Oct · UEFA Champions League

Last match: 17 Oct · Eredivisie

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
26	PSV Eindhoven	2	−1	1
30	FC Porto	2	−3	0

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

FC Porto

4-3-3

99 Diogo Costa

20 Alberto Baio

5 J. Bednarek

4 J. Kiwior

12 Z. Sanusi

8 Victor Mow Froholdt

13 P. Rosario

10 Gabri Veiga

11 Pepê Aquino

9 Samu

77 O. Pietuszewski

Coach · F. Farioli

Substitutes

16 · Hwang In-Beom

29 · S. Giménez

52 · Martim Fernandes

14 · Cláudio Ramos

18 · N. Pérez

17 · Borja Sainz

74 · Francisco Moura

24 · Andorinha

19 · André Silva

22 · A. Varela

33 · Souza

42 · S. Fofana

PSV Eindhoven

4-2-3-1

32 M. Kovář

8 S. Dest

2 L. Geertruida

3 Yarek Gasiorowski

18 F. Kostić

24 K. Sano

17 Mauro Júnior

19 E. Bajraktarevic

21 S. Mijnans

5 I. Perišić

20 G. Til

Coach · P. Bosz

Substitutes

51 · T. Smolenaars

35 · A. Santos

1 · N. Olij

4 · A. Obispo

27 · D. Man

6 · R. Flamingo

31 · N. Fernandez

42 · S. Cornecion

23 · M. Hansen

37 · A. Bouhamdi

Our number · fc porto winFirst published 14 Oct 04:28 · updated 18 Oct 04:22 · locked at kick-off

54% The market63%

Us54%

~~Market~~63%

We make FC Porto a 54% chance to win. The market has them at 63%. We are 9 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.0–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · FC Porto v PSV Eindhoven~~1.96 – 1.25

~~Form · UEFA Champions League this season · since 8 Sept~~W0 D0 L2 · W0 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 0 v 1~~30 v 26

~~The market · FC Porto win~~63% · ours 54%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · FC Porto win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 63% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
FC Porto win	54%	63%	−9
Draw	23%	21%	+2
PSV Eindhoven win	24%	17%	+7
Over 2.5 goals	62%	61%	+1
Both teams to score	62%	56%	+6
Over 1.5 goals	83%	81%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	40%	40%	0
FC Porto or draw	76%	83%	−7
FC Porto clean sheet	29%	–	–
PSV Eindhoven clean sheet	14%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.2%

0123450 4.3 4.7 3.1 1 7.6 10.2 6.2 2.6 2 7.8 9.7 6.1 2.5 3 5.1 6.3 4.0 4 2.5 3.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+FC Porto down, PSV Eindhoven across0–5 goals a side shown (98.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates the clubs of 638 leagues on one scale, from the 410,768 league, cup and continental matches of the last three years up to 19 Oct 2026: each club against its own league, and the leagues against each other through the matches between them, weighting recent matches more.

The two leagues

FC Porto play in Primeira Liga, PSV Eindhoven in Eredivisie.

Venue

Allows for home advantage: FC Porto are at home.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021/22.

What the model expects

1.96 goals for FC Porto, 1.25 for PSV Eindhoven. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 20 Oct 19:30. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · UEFA Champions League this season · since 8 Sept

FC PORTO

LL0–2 · 2–3

PSV EINDHOVEN

DL1–1 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Paris Saint Germain	2	+7	6
2	Barcelona	2	+7	6
3	Aston Villa	2	+7	6
4	VfB Stuttgart	2	+5	6
5	Liverpool	2	+4	6
6	Sporting CP	2	+4	6
7	Arsenal	2	+4	6
8	Real Madrid	2	+2	6
9	Real Betis	2	+2	6
10	Bayern München	2	+5	4
11	Shakhtar Donetsk	2	+2	4
12	Como	2	+2	3
13	Manchester United	2	+2	3
14	Villarreal	2	+1	3
15	Atletico Madrid	2	+1	3
16	Club Brugge KV	2	0	3
17	Manchester City	2	0	3
18	Borussia Dortmund	2	0	3
19	Lens	2	−1	3
20	AEK Athens FC	2	−1	3
21	RB Leipzig	2	−2	3
22	Sabah FA	2	−2	3
23	Feyenoord	2	−3	3
24	Bodo/Glimt	2	−4	3
25	AS Roma	2	−1	1
26	PSV Eindhoven	2	−1	1
27	Viking	2	−2	1
28	Fenerbahçe	2	−6	1
29	Inter	2	−2	0
30	FC Porto	2	−3	0
31	Slavia Praha	2	−3	0
32	Napoli	2	−3	0
33	Lask Linz	2	−4	0
34	Lille	2	−4	0
35	Galatasaray	2	−5	0
36	Slovan Bratislava	2	−8	0