Bodo/Glimt v Borussia Dortmund prediction · UEFA Champions League

Full timeGraded 14 Oct 23:00

Bodo/Glimt 1–0 Borussia Dortmund BORUSSIA DORTMUND WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Borussia Dortmund win~~43%

~~The market said~~43%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.689

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.698

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 16 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Borussia Dortmund win at 43%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Borussia Dortmund 43% before kick-off, 43% now. 0–0 · 33–23–43
1′KICK-OFF Bodo/Glimt v Borussia Dortmund
12′🟨 YELLOW · 13' Kouakou Joane Gadou · Borussia Dortmund
24′🟨 YELLOW · 25' Fábio Silva · Borussia Dortmund
45′HALF-TIME Bodo/Glimt 0–0 Borussia Dortmund
46′SECOND HALF Bodo/Glimt 0–0 Borussia Dortmund
47′Bodo/Glimt have had 7.0 attempts to 1.0 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 29–36–35
48′8.0 shots for Bodo/Glimt, 1.0 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 0–0 · 29–36–35
51′We said Borussia Dortmund at 43%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 11%. 1–0 · 66–23–11
51′⚽ GOAL · 51' Bodo/Glimt 1–0 Borussia Dortmund
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 51' Borussia Dortmund win: 43% at kick-off, 11% now
51′THE CALL SWINGS · 51' Bodo/Glimt win is now our likeliest result at 66% (was Borussia Dortmund win 11%)
52′52′ and it is 1–0: Fredrik Sjovold on the scoresheet for Bodo/Glimt. 1–0 · 66–23–10
55′We said Borussia Dortmund at 43%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–0 · 67–23–9
59′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Borussia Dortmund · On: Felix Nmecha · Off: Joey Veerman
59′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Borussia Dortmund · On: Serhou Guirassy · Off: Fábio Silva
59′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Borussia Dortmund · On: Ethan Nwaneri · Off: Konstantinos Karetsas
59′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Borussia Dortmund · On: Julian Ryerson · Off: Samuele Inácio
70′We said Borussia Dortmund at 43%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–0 · 76–20–4
77′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 77' Borussia Dortmund win: 43% at kick-off, 2% now
77′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Borussia Dortmund · On: Carney Chukwuemeka · Off: Maximilian Beier
77′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Bodo/Glimt · On: Ola Brynhildsen · Off: Jens Petter Hauge
93′1–0 at the end. Our 43% on Borussia Dortmund misses, and the record keeps it. 1–0 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Bodo/Glimt 1–0 Borussia Dortmund
FTBodo/Glimt 1–0 Borussia Dortmund · Borussia Dortmund win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Borussia Dortmund are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Bodo/Glimt 33%, draw 24%, Borussia Dortmund 43%. Over 2.5 goals 63%, both teams to score 65%.

The AI’s read on Bodo/Glimt v Borussia DortmundBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 14 Oct 19:18 · locked at kick-off

Bodo/Glimt win33%

Draw24%

Borussia Dortmund win43%

Kick-offWED 14 OCT · 20:00

VenueAspmyra Stadion

RefereeUrs Schnyder

Line-ups

Bodo/Glimt

4-4-2

Borussia Dortmund

3-4-2-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Bodo/Glimt

Borussia Dortmund

34Days since last match36

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
14	Borussia Dortmund	1	1	3
36	Bodo/Glimt	1	-5	0

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

In the news

from the pressAll ›

Champions League Preview | Can Borussia Dortmund return to winning ways in Norway?Get German Football News · 1 day ago · Borussia Dortmund Official | Niko Kovač extends Borussia Dortmund contract until 2029Get German Football News · 1 day ago · Borussia Dortmund FEATURE | Five standout players from Bundesliga Matchday 5Get German Football News · 2 days ago · RB Leipzig, Eintracht Frankfurt, Werder Bremen, Borussia Dortmund

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Bodo/Glimt

4-4-2

12 N. Haikin

20 F. Sjøvold

6 J. Gundersen

5 H. Aleesami

15 F. Bjørkan

8 S. Auklend

7 P. Berg

19 S. Fet

10 J. Hauge

11 O. Didrik Blomberg

9 A. Helmersen

Coach · K. Knutsen

Substitutes

17 · O. Brynhildsen

1 · J. Faye Lund

25 · I. Määttä

22 · J. Mvuka

2 · V. Nielsen

14 · U. Saltnes

28 · Assan Sanyang

32 · K. Solhaug

Borussia Dortmund

3-4-2-1

1 G. Kobel

22 Kouakou Joane Gadou

3 W. Anton

5 R. Bensebaïni

24 D. Svensson

7 J. Bellingham

25 J. Veerman

14 M. Beier

19 K. Karetsas

40 S. Inacio

21 Fábio Silva

Coach · N. Kovač

Substitutes

30 · P. Drewes

20 · M. Sabitzer

26 · J. Ryerson

49 · L. Reggiani

36 · Kauã Prates

18 · E. Nwaneri

8 · F. Nmecha

33 · A. Meyer

39 · F. Mané

9 · S. Guirassy

17 · C. Chukwuemeka

41 · M. Albert

Our number · borussia dortmund winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 14 Oct 19:18 · locked at kick-off

43% The market43%

Us43%

~~Market~~43%

We make Borussia Dortmund a 43% chance to win. The market has them at 43%. We are within 0 points of the market. The model expects 1.5–1.7.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Bodo/Glimt v Borussia Dortmund~~1.51 – 1.75

~~Last six in UEFA Champions League~~W2 D2 L2 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 0 v 3~~36 v 14

~~The market · Borussia Dortmund win~~43% · ours 43%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · borussia dortmund win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 46% to 43% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Bodo/Glimt win	33%	33%	+1
Draw	24%	25%	−1
Borussia Dortmund win	43%	43%	0
Over 2.5 goals	63%	69%	−6
Both teams to score	65%	70%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	84%	85%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	41%	50%	−9
Bodo/Glimt or draw	57%	57%	0
Bodo/Glimt clean sheet	17%	–	–
Borussia Dortmund clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.5%

0123450 4.2 6.4 5.9 3.4 1 5.5 10.5 8.9 5.2 2.3 2 4.4 7.7 6.7 3.9 3 2.2 3.9 3.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Bodo/Glimt down, Borussia Dortmund across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates every club on one scale from 407,336 league, cup and continental matches in 638 leagues up to 14 Oct 2026: each club against its own league, and the leagues against each other through the matches between them, weighting recent matches more.

The two leagues

Bodo/Glimt play in the Eliteserien, Borussia Dortmund in the Bundesliga.

Venue

Allows for home advantage: Bodo/Glimt are at home.

Head to head

1 previous meetings, 4.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

What the model expects

1.51 goals for Bodo/Glimt, 1.75 for Borussia Dortmund. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~4.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~BOR 2–2 BOD

Form · last six in UEFA Champions League

BODO/GLIMT

LDDWWL0–3 · 3–3 · 2–2 · 3–1 · 3–0 · 0–5

BORUSSIA DORTMUND

DLLWLW2–2 · 0–2 · 0–2 · 2–0 · 1–4 · 3–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Barcelona	2	7	6
2	Sporting CP	2	4	6
3	Arsenal	2	4	6
4	Bayern München	2	5	4
5	Paris Saint Germain	1	5	3
6	Como	1	3	3
7	Manchester United	2	2	3
8	VfB Stuttgart	1	2	3
9	Manchester City	1	2	3
10	Villarreal	2	1	3
11	Aston Villa	1	1	3
12	Real Betis	1	1	3
13	Atletico Madrid	2	1	3
14	Borussia Dortmund	1	1	3
15	Liverpool	1	1	3
16	Real Madrid	1	1	3
17	AEK Athens FC	1	1	3
18	Club Brugge KV	2	0	3
19	Lens	2	-1	3
20	RB Leipzig	2	-2	3
21	Sabah FA	2	-2	3
22	AS Roma	1	0	1
23	Shakhtar Donetsk	1	0	1
24	Fenerbahçe	1	0	1
25	PSV Eindhoven	2	-1	1
26	Viking	2	-2	1
27	Lask Linz	1	-1	0
28	Inter	2	-2	0
29	FC Porto	1	-2	0
30	Slavia Praha	2	-3	0
31	Napoli	2	-3	0
32	Lille	2	-4	0
33	Feyenoord	1	-4	0
34	Galatasaray	2	-5	0
35	Slovan Bratislava	1	-5	0
36	Bodo/Glimt	1	-5	0